BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Keep a close eye on the MJO! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Pretty incredible that the long range models were so wrong about this pattern, it's 60 degrees! The -PNA 11-15 day still looks suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Pretty incredible that the long range models were so wrong about this pattern, it's 60 degrees! The -PNA 11-15 day still looks suspect. By and large the PV is not established. The burp of cold air on thanksgiving didn't help. All of that was washed out over the North Atlantic. Classic land-ocean contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The Western Atlantic Ridge continues to overperform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 12z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Euro op following up with the d10 -epo on the ens. This is a pretty good pattern for cold here (and most of the conus). Gefs and eps diverging with the Pac it seems. I'll hug the euro/eps for now... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 It is always Inpresive on day 10. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Cold perhaps but none of the 51 EURO ensembles give "us" as much as 3" of snow total during the next 15 days. One or two give us an inch. The GEFS mean snow fall during this period is a bit over an inch. The good news is 15 days will bring us to the 10th when climatology is a weaker enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looking at the pattern, I can see the same thing persisting all Winter, the evolution at 500mb we have seen this November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Certainly not the best day 15 look, especially the PAC(ouch). But then again, it is a day 15 mean, and it would only be Dec 10. Some hints over the past couple runs of heights building over GL. @Bob Chill- Just 2 weeks beyond this we should be golden, and right when climo becomes rapidly less hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I'll believe it when I see it in a Moderate Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Certainly not the best day 15 look, especially the PAC(ouch). But then again, it is a day 15 mean, and it would only be Dec 10. Some hints over the past couple runs of heights building over GL. @Bob Chill- Just 2 weeks beyond this we should be golden, and right when climo becomes rapidly less hostile. It seems to be moving forward in time though which is a good thing. It means less likely to happen a hostile Pac that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The Western Atlantic Ridge continues to overperform. Summer or winter that thing is pesky as hell and always under modeled imo. Good point to bring up. Ride the Euro d-10 like the town bicycle for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 hours ago, Scud said: 12z data, it seems the possibility of Friday snow is past. Now it is time to talk about rain. All rain, all the time. I am actually fine with that. Keep the wet pattern going. Climo temps will be coming in Jan/Feb. Just keep the storm train rolling through then. Even cutters into a cold enough CAD can be decent for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Rip and read means your forecast or analysis changes daily. I can't wait to see what tomorrow's ensembles show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Translation: only thing worse than rain and 33 degrees is clear skies temp 22 dewpoint 7 with a wind out of the NW. At 26 gust to 35.... Unless there is a snowpack of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 lol 18z GFS at the super long range... 504 to 510 DM h5 heights at 384 over us as there is a super ridge out west... PV pays NE at visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Hopefully the 18z is correct in the sense that we have weak to mod systems that slowly drag a boundary south. Didnt work out this run but pressing cold with systems running a slowly sagging boundary can work out if timed correctly...maybe our best hope for the upcoming 2 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 18z happy hour special. A 312hr fringe, nothing but cirrus..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 50 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Rip and read means your forecast or analysis changes daily. I can't wait to see what tomorrow's ensembles show All the variations = the same outcome. Not ripe and not a disaster. Flow is loaded with shortwaves so anything interesting prob won't show up until the med range. Not expecting much personally but at least it will feel like early winter more often than not. We've had quite a bit of December warmth since 2014. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Every time the 240+ GFS is discussed, a puppy's neck is broken. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Every time the 240+ GFS is discussed, a puppy's neck is broken. It was satire, got caught up in the moment. Should have been on banter I suppose. Please don't hurt them pups.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 lol....just got a puppy a few days ago. Black lab. Watching him chew on his foot right now...which is a good analogy for post 240 gfs...at hour 300 the gfs falls off it's bed and wets itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 42 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Hopefully the 18z is correct in the sense that we have weak to mod systems that slowly drag a boundary south. Didnt work out this run but pressing cold with systems running a slowly sagging boundary can work out if timed correctly...maybe our best hope for the upcoming 2 weeks... 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All the variations = the same outcome. Not ripe and not a disaster. Flow is loaded with shortwaves so anything interesting prob won't show up until the med range. Not expecting much personally but at least it will feel like early winter more often than not. We've had quite a bit of December warmth since 2014. Yup. Keep dragging the baroclinic zone south and hopefully we can time a wave. Still think it's possible. Good ensemble and Op support for a cold outbreak around the 5th and beyond. I'd also refer people to HM's tweets this afternoon/evening about the strat PV continuing to get beat up and models underdoing the -EPO ridge. Given the Nino base state and the GoA warm pool, I would doubt any trough there gets too comfortable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 What a ridge. I wonder if models are picking up on last year. vw gti turbo 0 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yup. Keep dragging the baroclinic zone south and hopefully we can time a wave. Still think it's possible. Good ensemble and Op support for a cold outbreak around the 5th and beyond. I'd also refer people to HM's tweets this afternoon/evening about the strat PV continuing to get beat up and models underdoing the -EPO ridge. Given the Nino base state and the GoA warm pool, I would doubt any trough there gets too comfortable. It's pretty amazing how well the models pick up on losing the Aleutian trough when they predict the MJO losing amplitude and heading for the COD. Not that they are correct on either...but, as we head deeper into winter the COD should represent a typical modokiish nino pattern I would think....8-1-2 represent a magnified version. Relaxes more brief and dulled than advertised 12+ days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: What a ridge. I wonder if models are picking up on last year. vw gti turbo 0 60 Is that where we want to see the strongest ridging in the hemisphere setting up shop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Yup. Keep dragging the baroclinic zone south and hopefully we can time a wave. Still think it's possible. Good ensemble and Op support for a cold outbreak around the 5th and beyond. I'd also refer people to HM's tweets this afternoon/evening about the strat PV continuing to get beat up and models underdoing the -EPO ridge. Given the Nino base state and the GoA warm pool, I would doubt any trough there gets too comfortable. The repeating cold shot cycle is very encouraging. As long as that keeps up we'll probably just stumble into an event of some sort without needing the planets to align. Even though it's not snowing every 48 hours it does look like the first half of Dec will be the best we've had in the temp dept since 2013. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Fridays possible little system seemed dead but going thru Eps members...they all of of sudden have a sizable uptick in the snowfall for that time period. Eps wanted absolutely nothing to do with this potential till now. Now...we r not talking anything mod to big but a nice big cluster has 1/2" - to as much as 2" . And the mean up to 1/2" for north of i70. Surface temps look to be marginal and probably stale cold air but maby we can at least resurrect some snow TV or some mixed precip out of this . Was there any uptick of snow for 12/5-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Fridays possible little system seemed dead but going thru Eps members...they all of of sudden have a sizable uptick in the snowfall for that time period. Eps wanted absolutely nothing to do with this potential till now. Now...we r not talking anything mod to big but a nice big cluster has 1/2" - to as much as 2" . And the mean up to 1/2" for north of i70. Surface temps look to be marginal and probably stale cold air but maby we can at least resurrect some snow TV or some mixed precip out of this . The end of the run of the eps looks very promising too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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