rclab Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: Dude we’re colder and more north this isn’t a coating for Central Park mark my words. I’m in Central Park today and I will personally go and measure and show you guys You have my support/ backing, providing you don’t use one of their rulers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 22 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: Dude we’re colder and more north this isn’t a coating for Central Park mark my words. I’m in Central Park today and I will personally go and measure and show you guys You may have misread his post. He wrote, "... 2” for the far Uws where I work (120th and Broadway)." That's not far from Central Park's Zoo, so it implies a measurable snowfall even there. P.S. Given some past measurement debacles at the Park, it's an open question whether you will be the only one measuring. Last winter, there was one or two occasions that no measurements appeared to be made after the snow stopped falling and then had either melted or been washed away by the rain by the time it fell. Traffic camera footage showed a easily visible coating and such a coating is more than a trace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12k Nam has a nice thump for the coast later. 2-3 inches. And the HRRR has 8 inches for NYC. Those maps are always overdone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 12Z NAM came in colder. This particular sounding is 3 degrees colder at the surface and a degree or two colder aloft for than the same 06z sounding I recently posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockerfellerSnow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: You may have misread his post. He wrote, "... 2” for the far Uws where I work (120th and Broadway)." That's not far from Central Park's Zoo, so it implies a measurable snowfall even there. P.S. Given some past measurement debacles at the Park, it's an open question whether you will be the only one measuring. Last winter, there was one or two occasions that no measurements appeared to be made after the snow stopped falling and then had either melted or been washed away by the rain by the time it fell. Traffic camera footage showed a easily visible coating and such a coating is more than a trace. I still think Central Park will record at least 2... where he is probably closer to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Winds are still mostly NE in many areas that were supposed to be E. The high is likely anchoring better than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, RockerfellerSnow said: I still think Central Park will record at least 2... where he is probably closer to 3 I'm currently thinking 1"-2" based on last night's guidance, but 3" is well within the realm of possibility if the snow comes down harder and lasts just a little longer. The ECMWF continued to suggest 3"-4" is possible. The 12z NAM is around 2". The daily record is 1.0", which was set back in 1906. Farther south, Washington, DC had recorded 0.1" snow as of 7 am. More had accumulated since then, so it's very likely that Washington's daily record of 0.2" from 1906 was broken. What's important is that the precipitation seems to be somewhat overperforming on the snowy side early on as it comes north. That outcome may be part of the reason the HRRR has been super aggressive with the snowfall amounts around the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Few things of note here, first the high is at 1037mb which is about 3mb stronger than predicted on most guidance. Secondly look how those isobars are sagging SW all the way into SW VA. That's a sign of how strong the CAD is. I think models are warming the surface too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Watch out tomorrow morning for a few hours of potentially intense snowfall as the ULL comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Some areas may never get above freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 EWR wind is 360. Both models had 070, even the 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: EWR wind is 360. Both models had 070, even the 12Z NAM This might help the CAD hold on a bit longer especially in the valley areas north of NYC. Currently 28/16 here near KSWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Watch out tomorrow morning for a few hours of potentially intense snowfall as the ULL comes through. How far south are you thinking this last shot will go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: How far south are you thinking this last shot will go? I know that this graphic is showing rain over most of the area but by this time the winds will have shifted and cold air will be rapidly moving in so I expect just about all areas to flip back before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I know that this graphic is showing rain over most of the area but by this time the winds will have shifted and cold air will be rapidly moving in so I expect just about all areas to flip back before ending. Okay. It'd be nice to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Craig Allen posted this a little while ago: Getting a little concerned / nervous. I sure wish I had a chance to get acclimated with a few snow showers rather than hitting me up with an all out storm for the first one. Sheesh. The HRRR is a high- res model updated hourly. The trend has been toward a colder solution due to surface and upper dynamics. and therefore more wintry precip. Last night, I mentioned the NAM12 and NAM3k were throwing around such hints. Remember, just using a 10:1 ratio means sleet and icing are included in the mix and can make snowfall maps disproportionately high. But this morning, even when factoring out that parameter, the initial intensity of the snow and sleet may be enough to overwhelm the changeover for a couple extra hours. For NYC, LI and NJ shore- that would approx double estimates, especially on colder surfaces. Then towards evening, even roads would get covered before heavy rain washes it away. Inland- An easy 2-4" with 6+ in the NW hills of NJ into the Poconos, Catskills and north of TZ and Merritt towards I-84. Watching this possibility very carefully. And remember, there may be a burst of snow to end the storm tomorrow morning. November????? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Craig Allen posted this a little while ago: Getting a little concerned / nervous. I sure wish I had a chance to get acclimated with a few snow showers rather than hitting me up with an all out storm for the first one. Sheesh. The HRRR is a high- res model updated hourly. The trend has been toward a colder solution due to surface and upper dynamics. and therefore more wintry precip. Last night, I mentioned the NAM12 and NAM3k were throwing around such hints. Remember, just using a 10:1 ratio means sleet and icing are included in the mix and can make snowfall maps disproportionately high. But this morning, even when factoring out that parameter, the initial intensity of the snow and sleet may be enough to overwhelm the changeover for a couple extra hours. For NYC, LI and NJ shore- that would approx double estimates, especially on colder surfaces. Then towards evening, even roads would get covered before heavy rain washes it away. Inland- An easy 2-4" with 6+ in the NW hills of NJ into the Poconos, Catskills and north of TZ and Merritt towards I-84. Watching this possibility very carefully. And remember, there may be a burst of snow to end the storm tomorrow morning. November????? Yeah, this isn't going to be fluffy snow. More like a 5 : 1 or less ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The 12z GFS seems to have shifted somewhat toward the colder side with some measurable snow in NYC now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 12z GFS trended a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Over an inch of snow in D.C 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 12z GFS seems to have shifted somewhat toward the colder side with some measurable snow in NYC now. Sorry, I basically copied what you said. Didn't see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Ceilings already 3-4,000ft, there won't be much virga with this at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Temp holding steady at 33/DP 21 Precipitation is on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 You can see the models playing catch up on the CAD with the record low dewpoints in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 28/16 at home in Chester. Point and click going with 6" today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Sorry, I basically copied what you said. Didn't see it. No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Pink is Less than 1" Yellow is 1-2" Orange is 2-4" Black is 3-6" Red is 4-8" Dark Red is 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Pink is Less than 1" Yellow is 1-2" Orange is 2-4" Black is 3-6" Red is 4-8" Dark Red is 8"+ IDK if I'd have the Bronx and Brooklyn in the same zone with this storm but looks good otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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