Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    19,029
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

If that black hole over Alaska becomes a permanent feature, then you could kiss this winter goodbye. 

Very bad signs heading forward.

Your post in the NE thread is a joke. Obviously went in there trolling. Winter is over before it started? 01/02 repeat coming?

i would happily bet my life savings you are so so so wrong on that. Your posts had been better for a while and now your straight trolling. This is what keeps quality posters away. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Snowy day here in Cooperstown 

Hope you're stopping in at the hall of fame.  no outside baseball at Doubleday Field tho.:snowwindow: 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

NYZ045-046-057-281600-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0009.181127T1559Z-181129T0000Z/
Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches in the valleys and 5 to 10 inches over the higher
  terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Chenango, Otsego and Delaware Counties.

* WHEN...Snow will continue through the afternoon with heavier
  snow expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities
  will be less than 1 inch per hour during the afternoon with
  between 1 and 2 inches per hour tonight and Wednesday morning.
  Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult especially
  over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the morning or evening commute. Interstate 88 could become very
  dangerous in the higher terrain areas.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very rare for NYC and Chicago to both have their 4th snowiest November at the same time. This is one of those events that could only be possible during the snowy 2010's. 

Nov 2018 snowfall rankings

NYC....#4....6.4"....... Chicago....#4.....12.0"

 

What were the records they both broke?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

What were the records they both broke?

Here are the top 5 snowiest Novembers for each station and the seasonal snowfall.

NYC

#1...19.0.....1898.....55.9

#2...14.0.....1882.....44.1

#3...12.8.....1938.....37.1

#4...6.4.......2018.......?

#5...6.3.......1892.....49.4

Chicago

#1...14.8......1940.....52.5

#2...14.5......1895.....53.6

#3...14.3......1951.....66.4

#4...12.0......2018.......?

#5...11.2......2015.....31.2

Link to comment
Share on other sites
IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted
Just now, bluewave said:

Here are the top 5 snowiest Novembers for each station and the seasonal snowfall.

NYC

#1...19.0.....1898.....55.9

#2...14.0.....1882.....44.1

#3...12.8.....1938.....37.1

#4...6.4.......2018.......?

#5...6.3.......1892.....49.4

Chicago

#1...14.8......1940.....52.5

#2...14.5......1895.....53.6

#3...14.3......1951.....66.4

#4...12.0......2018.......?

#5...11.2......2015.....31.2

Thank you. Based on these stats. Both of these cities may experience well above average snowfall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Thank you. Based on these stats. Both of these cities may experience well above average snowfall.

I think the only reason Chicago didn't have above normal snowfall in 15-16 was the super El Nino. Other than that season, 4 out of 4 above average seasons for NYC and 3 out of 4 in Chicago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your post in the NE thread is a joke. Obviously went in there trolling. Winter is over before it started? 01/02 repeat coming?

i would happily bet my life savings you are so so so wrong on that. Your posts had been better for a while and now your straight trolling. This is what keeps quality posters away. 

Lol that's because it was a joke. Many NE posters speak in hyperbole about everything and that's all it was. 

People need to relax. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol that's because it was a joke. Many NE posters speak in hyperbole about everything and that's all it was. 

People need to relax. 

If you get a box of furry stripped caterpillars from our Northeast siblings, save some for me. I always wanted to find out what they really turn into. As always...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Hope you're stopping in at the hall of fame.  no outside baseball at Doubleday Field tho.:snowwindow: 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

NYZ045-046-057-281600-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0009.181127T1559Z-181129T0000Z/
Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches in the valleys and 5 to 10 inches over the higher
  terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Chenango, Otsego and Delaware Counties.

* WHEN...Snow will continue through the afternoon with heavier
  snow expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities
  will be less than 1 inch per hour during the afternoon with
  between 1 and 2 inches per hour tonight and Wednesday morning.
  Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult especially
  over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the morning or evening commute. Interstate 88 could become very
  dangerous in the higher terrain areas.

 

I love it up there

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think the only reason Chicago didn't have above normal snowfall in 15-16 was the super El Nino. Other than that season, 4 out of 4 above average seasons for NYC and 3 out of 4 in Chicago.

15-16 was pretty good for us not only did we get our biggest ever snowstorm, we also had other snows that made it pretty wintry.  Parts of long island had over 50"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

Last 3 days of Nov.  averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. BN.

Month to date is. -3.4[44.8].       Should end Nov. at  -3.2[44.4].

All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Still just a 40% chance of at least 3" of Snow, by the 13th.-----GEFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Toekneeweather

Toekneeweather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Last 3 days of Nov.  averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. BN.

Month to date is. -3.4[44.8].       Should end Nov. at  -3.2[44.4].

All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Still just a 40% chance of at least 3" of Snow, by the 13th.-----GEFS.

GFS and its friend para GFS are both showing snow in the long term. Something to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Toekneeweather

Toekneeweather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CarLover014 said:

Yep, looks like we might need to watch Tuesday the 4th. Or at least, keep it in mind

For sure a quick mover but could drop a few inches to start December. And keep in mind it’s very active after that too.

currently cold and brisk with a temperature around 36

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PB COLTS NECK NJ

PB COLTS NECK NJ

Posted
Posted
On 11/16/2018 at 9:54 AM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

If we do the grand tour into 7 /8 / 1 with amplitude , the month of December should end up cold and snowy.

 

As it is starting with the back few days of November into the 1st 10 days or so should feature a major E/C storm.

 

Prob 2 legit shots before the 15th.

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

 

 

There is a chance that a 2 wave scenario materializes before the 10th or so.  I know many would settle for one , but the loading phase at 500 a week or so prior to snowmaggedon showed some similarities about 10 days ago , so the following 10 to 15 days will be the period to watch.

 

A mid month warm up is on the way , the question is for how long ? 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

To date, 2018 has generally ranked among the 10 wettest years on record in much of the region. Total rainfall and 2018’s ranking for select cities follow:

Allentown: 60.68” (3rd)
Atlantic City: 61.91(3rd)
Bridgeport: 54.40” (8th)
Cooperstown, NY: 55.55” (5th)
Elmira, NY: 54.91” (1st)
Hamburg, PA: 71.33” (1st)
Harrisburg: 61.32” (2nd)
Islip: 57.64” (5th)
New York City: 59.02” (9th)
Newark: 52.38” (12th)
Philadelphia: 55.14” (5th)
Port Jervis, NY: 58.88” (5th)
Scranton: 57.82” (2nd)
Shirley, NY: 55.92” (1st)
Shrub Oak, NY: 60.85” (3rd)
Upton, NY: 65.25” (1st)

New York City will likely see 2018 rank among its five wettest years on record. Some implied probabilities based on historical and 1971-2017 December precipitation:

Rank or Amount:
4th (65.11”, 1989): Historic Data: 8%; 1971-2017 Data: 18%
65.00” or more: Historic Data: 9%; 1971-2017 Data: 19%
62.50” or more: Historic Data: 53%; 1971-2017 Data: 62%
5th (61.67”, 2007): Historic Data: 71%; 1971-2017 Data: 75%
6th (61.21”, 1975): Historic Data: 79%; 1971-2017 Data: 81%
7th (60.92”, 1990): Historic Data: 84%; 1971-2017 Data: 85%
60.00” or more: Historic Data: 94%; 1971-2017 Data: 93%
8th (59.89”, 2006): Historic Data: 94%; 1971-2017 Data: 93%

New York City’s December Precipitation Records:
Least: 0.25”, 1955
Most: 9.98”, 1973

Snowfall across the region has also been much above normal to date.  For the most part, the distribution of snowfall from the upper Midwest eastward to the Middle Atlantic and New England regions suggests that the overall idea of a snowy winter remains on track.

Years were filtered based on snowfall-to-date through November 30 for the following thresholds:

Albany: 6” or more
Boston: Measurable < 3”
Chicago: 3” or more
Detroit: 3” or more
New York City: 2” or more
Philadelphia: 0.5” or more
Portland: 4” or more

The most common matches excluding Chicago and Detroit were: 1892, 1896, 1898, 1938, and 1967.

When Chicago and Detroit were added to the sample, the most common matches were 1892, 1896, 1898, and 1967

Weighted averages were constructed as follows: All common years from the sample that included Chicago and Detroit were given 150% weight. 1938 was given 100% weight.

Weighted average seasonal snowfall for select cities was as follows:

Baltimore: 25.3”
Boston: 53.6”
New York City: 41.5”
Philadelphia: 32.6”
Washington, DC: 28.5”

None of those years were El Niño years. A Central Pacific-based El Niño typically sees enhanced precipitation and snowfall.  Thus, my thinking from my winter idea remains unchanged. My thoughts on seasonal snowfall were as follows:

Albany: 70”-80”
Baltimore: 30”-40”
Binghamton: 85”-95” (a 100” figure is looking more likely now)
Boston: 55”-65”
New York City: 45”-55”
Newark: 45”-55”
Philadelphia: 40”-50”
Providence: 50”-60”
Scranton: 50”-60”
Washington, DC: 25”-35”

Finally, as the calendar turns to December, consistent with numerous snowy winter cases, I continue to expect December to feature above normal snowfall. My guess is that New York City has a good chance of receiving 6” or more snow and some possibility of picking up 10” or more snow for the month. Perhaps the highest probability of snow will exist during the first two weeks of the month. There’s some chance that the last week of the month might also feature a rising risk of snowfall as the pattern becomes more volatile toward the end of the milder regime.

As often happens, a 2-3 week period of milder weather could develop. Based on a combination of the forecast teleconnections and EPS, the timing for the onset of this milder period will probably be around mid-month +/- 3 days.

Currently, the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies closely resemble those seen in 2002, particularly in the Gulf of Alaska region. Warm anomalies in that region typically favor an EPO-. Through the first 25 days of November, the EPO was negative 72% of the time. In November 2002, the EPO was negative 70% of the time. However, during the December 10, 2002-January 6, 2003 period, the EPO went positive for 26/28 (93%) days. The EPO is forecast to go positive around December 7. The EPO then went negative on January 7. It was negative during the remaining 43/53 (81%) days of meteorological winter. Considering the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific, I remain confident that the EPO will return to predominantly negative values after a positive period (the latest EPS weeklies hint at the return of a neutrall to negative EPO around January 10). As the EPO is a critical piece of my overall winter thoughts, I am not overly concerned by the current teleconnection forecast.

P.S. A post-script is in order. Bear in mind that a warm outlook on the 3-4-week EPS is no more or less likely to verify than the cold outlook it replaces or vice versa. At 3-4 week lead times, forecasting accuracy is not materially different from assuming seasonal outcomes.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...