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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland
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3 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said:

I’ll just leave this here. 

4B81C46B-87A1-4AA6-93C3-620FDA63D42F.png

This would definitely be a bucket list snow for me here in the NE GA mountains. This is the stuff dreams are made of. I know this is almost certainly not going to happen in my lifetime but man is it pretty to look at. 

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Hey guys!,

Just wanted to jump in and say.....raise those eyebrows. This has the makings of a Mountain special. It will be interesting to watch the placement of the key players as time progresses. Right now it looks like the typical set up for big Southern low snow. I will be bumping in with some thoughts periodically. If I was most of you I'd be pretty excited to track this. As always there is the bust potential but someone should cash!  

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42 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

A little concerned about too much suppression for those of us in the northern mountains. Trends are definitely in the favor of SW NC imo.

Synoptics & climo might argue against this. I'd be really leery of a cold rain in the Hayesville, Murphy area. Maybe even a rain to snow event in the Franklin area (elevation dependent in the SW). Central & Northern Mountains could get clobbered! 

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21 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Having a hard time believing that suppression will be an issue this early in December. I’ve seen crazier things though. Suppression will obviously hurt us NW folks vs you guys in SW mtns. Also, here’s a link to check out some awesome aerial footage from the big ASU win yesterday.

Awesome job man!

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that...

These storms almost always come NW as we get closer. Don't worry.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

And even if for whatever reason it didn't it's December 9th or whatever date it does hit. We should all be glad we have a storm of this potential magnitude this early in the season. It's going to be a long season, and everyone is going to get their share.

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We saw a drone during the game and I told those folks thats that air nelson guy I bet. Went through whole spill explaining who you are. Thanks for sharing and recharge for next weekends snow. You do an awesome job and really enjoy your work.

Looking forward to tracking this storm. Hope it ends up being a Murphy To Manteo crusher for us all.

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We saw a drone during the game and I told those folks thats that air nelson guy I bet. Went through whole spill explaining who you are. Thanks for sharing and recharge for next weekends snow. You do an awesome job and really enjoy your work.
Looking forward to tracking this storm. Hope it ends up being a Murphy To Manteo crusher for us all.

Thanks man I appreciate it! I was glad we had a break in the weather to be able to get the shots. Caught it between the rain and the fog.
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Pretty darn exciting LT disco by GSP for this far out!

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM Monday: Threat for significant winter weather next
weekend continues, especially for the NC mtns and adjacent piedmont
and points north. However, confidence is very low on the exact
details. The 00Z EC was preferred for the extended given its better
consistency and it falls between the faster and warmer operational
GFS and the slower and colder GFS ensemble members. Thursday into
Friday will be the quiet before the storm. Zonal flow aloft will
prevail during this time with surface high pressure weakening and
shifting southeast of the FA Friday. A northern stream disturbance
passing to the Thursday night north may bring some clouds to the
mountains with an outside shot at a few snow showers. Otherwise
expect increasing clouds by late in the day Friday ahead of a
surface low pressure system developing along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico. Temperatures will warm some into Friday but will likely
remain below normal.

The surface low is currently expected to track near the northern
Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday before crossing FL and arriving
somewhere near the Southeast coast Sunday. the timing and location
of the low would support continued increasing clouds with
precipitation starting sometime Saturday, possibly late in the day.
Most guidance shows a 1030mb+ sfc high pressure system building into
the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the
storm system. This supports much colder air filtering into the region
by Saturday with highs expected to only be around 40, setting the
stage for the potentially significant winter storm. Saturday night
into Sunday currently look like the period for the most significant
precipitation with a strong southerly low level jet pumping moisture
into the region above the cold dome of high pressure wedging down
east of the mtns. Much uncertainty exists with the eventual
precipitation type across the region. At this time it appears that
the biggest ice/snow issues would be on the front end of the storm
system. Although, if the fairly strong sfc high pressure system gets
locked into the Mid-Atlantic states on some models suggest, then
significant snow and ice will be possible, especially across NC.
Although at least light snow and especially ice accumulations are
possible even across southern portions of the FA as well. The
forecast will likely change multiple times this week, but now is the
time to begin putting a winter weather plan together for this
potentially significant winter storm.
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