kdennis78 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, hickory said: Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over! If you're not a meteo then don't speak with this kind of authoritative tone. Seems like a garbage post to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: It's the banter thread your safe here. To be fair that probably would have passed on the main thread. Were running in unprecedented territory with this storm so will just have to find out. I'm not willing to take a more southwestern landfall off the table until the 0z Euro has a say in this. It was in the main thread... I moved it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: It was in the main thread... I moved it here. Looks like you guys are keeping the standards high with this one. Probably not a bad idea considering Harvey and Irma were pretty messy at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It would seem the GFS just can't decide exactly what it wants to do with Florence this run... The GFS was notably west of where it was in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: It would seem the GFS just can't decide exactly what it wants to do with Florence this run... Maybe it's having a shot of rum or tequila after every mention of "annular" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: It would seem the GFS just can't decide exactly what it wants to do with Florence this run... The GFS was notably west of where it was in previous runs. An emergency manager's delight /sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 My family has had a little cabin across from the ocean down at Holden Beach since 1975. It’s incredibly saddening to have to accept that it could be wiped off of the map in a couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It would seem the GFS just can't decide exactly what it wants to do with Florence this run... The GFS was notably west of where it was in previous runs.When you spit out your coffee after simultaneously seeing the GFS loop and hearing TWC JC mention it as a possible solution. Be safe SE and MA folks! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Normally don't join in on Tropical Discussions but wanted to wish everyone in the path of this monster to stay safe. We have family that live on the shore of Oak Island, NC just south of Wilmington and not looking very good for them right now. They are planning on evacuating by tomorrow morning at the latest. Also it appears that the EWRC is almost completed for Florence on the last few frames of the IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 What is causing the front / line of clouds that has formed to the west of Florence? I am curious as it is moving in a north westerly direction: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 With Disturbance 1 pushing north, and a continuing easterly flow coming off of Florida, it seems to me that Florence would follow the front/cloud line I'm asking about. EDIT: had the air flow off Florida moving the wrong direction. Corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Perhaps of interest. Mean Absolute Error of various models on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Boo to recon bugging out after 2 passes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Wonder what happened? Mechanical issues with the plane? Medical issue on board? Bad time for something to wrong. I wonder how quick they can get another hunter airborne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Raine1212 said: Was not sure were to ask this? I am in Evans, Ga. and preparing. Wondering if I should prepare more.. What do you guys think lets keep these type of questions here in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 My reaction when I saw the GFS cave to the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It's a shame the GFS is so inferior to the ECMWF these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said: It's a shame the GFS is so inferior to the ECMWF these days. That really doesn't seem to be the case at all, in the longer time frames: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy said: That really doesn't seem to be the case at all, in the longer time frames: I think that poster is probably focusing on the timeframe around landfall... whether the eye would scrape the coast/stay offshore or move inland. That is the aspect where the GFS appears to be headed toward being late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Maybe I'm forgetting but I don't recall seeing a storm with that satellite presentation before. What's the deal with the fingers of cooler cloud tops oriented straight out from the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I think that poster is probably focusing on the timeframe around landfall... whether the eye would scrape the coast/stay offshore or move inland. That is the aspect where the GFS appears to be headed toward being late to the party. Probably. Just pointing out that the GFS has actually been one of the higher performing models IRT this storm, and we're a good way out now. We've seen this movie a few times haven't we? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12Z FV3-GFS now more southwest as well. Landfall at MYR then crawling west across Central SC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Maybe I'm forgetting but I don't recall seeing a storm with that satellite presentation before. What's the deal with the fingers of cooler cloud tops oriented straight out from the center? It's due to strong divergence aloft. You have strong upper level airflow jets away from the convection that stretches the high cirrus clouds. It creates finger-like linear striations / furrows in the cloud canopy's appearance. Essentially, the CDO is being stretched and it's also a sign of strong outflow channeling establishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Anyone wishcasting this hurricane to their backyard is out of their damn mind. Hopelessly batsh** crazy. That's all I got. One of the rare instances where I would rather observe from a distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, Vice-Regent said: Anyone wishcasting this hurricane to their backyard is out of their damn mind. Hopelessly batsh** crazy. That's all I got. One of the rare instances where I would rather observe from a distance. Indeed. I, for one, do am not wanting to be without power for weeks at the end of Virginia summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Many of those in the Lumber River / Lumberton NC area still have not fully recovered from Hurricane Matthew less than two years ago. If the models predicting Florence inland 'stall' over southeast NC prove true, that is a cruel fate for those poor people. This time there will be better preparedness, but so unfortunate to lose again what they have managed to rebuild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12z Euro is...interesting. If it holds on to that solution and it verifies, I'll be willing to hail King Euro forever and ever. But I'm skeptical. Edit: For discussion's sake I'll say that the 12z Euro is showing Flo stalling out just off Wilmington for ~3 days then scooting south and making landfall in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The Euro run would be terrifying for people who decide to stay in Wilmington. Hours upon hours of the eyewall wobbling towards or away from the city, eventually making it onshore. Wilmington gets about 48 hours of hurricane strength gusts. Not to mention the surge and over two feet of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Ohhhh... NJwx85 is the guy I was talking about on the first page who used to have a wedding photo as his avatar. It all makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 sup...i'm unbanned. glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4" anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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