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the ghost of leroy

Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

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So with Florence looking to jack up a good portion of coast, what do you guys think about whether so much development should be allowed so close to the water?

Based on history, it is known that hurricanes come calling every so often. Obviously factors like location and shape of the coast affect the risk in any particular area, with some areas of the coast being more susceptible than others.  Compare that to tornadoes in which you don't know exactly where they are going ahead of time, and even in the prime tornado region of the country, the average recurrence at any particular point location is something like once every several hundred or even 1,000+ years (there are always freak exceptions of the same house getting hit twice in 5 years or whatever).   

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So with Florence looking to jack up a good portion of coast, what do you guys think about whether so much development should be allowed so close to the water?

 

of course it shouldn't be allowed.  but this is america. money rules.  NC state government agencies arent even allowed to study and make policy based upon sea level rise.  that's the degree of insanity at play here.

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So with Florence looking to jack up a good portion of coast, what do you guys think about whether so much development should be allowed so close to the water?

Based on history, it is known that hurricanes come calling every so often. Obviously factors like location and shape of the coast affect the risk in any particular area, with some areas of the coast being more susceptible than others.  Compare that to tornadoes in which you don't know exactly where they are going ahead of time, and even in the prime tornado region of the country, the average recurrence at any particular point location is something like once every several hundred or even 1,000+ years (there are always freak exceptions of the same house getting hit twice in 5 years or whatever).   

Frankly allowed or not eventually it will become impractical if you want any form of insurance. Insurance companies will eventually drive the change but before it gets a real kick in the ass something truly catastrophic will have to happen... not some seasonal vacation home disappearing but beachfront Miami getting wiped out.

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16 minutes ago, Tibet said:

Frankly allowed or not eventually it will become impractical if you want any form of insurance. Insurance companies will eventually drive the change but before it gets a real kick in the ass something truly catastrophic will have to happen... not some seasonal vacation home disappearing but beachfront Miami getting wiped out.

State Farm nearly went under after Andrew. As long as there is open land and people with $. The ins companies will take it.

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I don't think my personal anecdotes belong in the main thread, so here you go. I've been watching Flo for about a week now, since I saw "tropical wave forming." No one believed me when I predicted it would hit the US. News sites even a few days ago were all don't worry, unprecedented, blah blah blah...

I predicted SC landfall, turning north inland to soak NC and VA. I said it would be strong and slow and I said pinhole eye. Could be wrong, hope I'm wrong. I just moved to a heavily wooded area in VA and we've had 3" of rain already this weekend. Walmart was packed today and they were down to just a few cases of water. Cashier said after Irene some of my neighbors were without power for 9 days.

If I lived in SC, I would already have a hotel room booked somewhere far away.

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2 minutes ago, Keelala said:

I don't think my personal anecdotes belong in the main thread, so here you go. I've been watching Flo for about a week now, since I saw "tropical wave forming." No one believed me when I predicted it would hit the US. News sites even a few days ago were all don't worry, unprecedented, blah blah blah...

I predicted SC landfall, turning north inland to soak NC and VA. I said it would be strong and slow and I said pinhole eye. Could be wrong, hope I'm wrong. I just moved to a heavily wooded area in VA and we've had 3" of rain already this weekend. Walmart was packed today and they were down to just a few cases of water. Cashier said after Irene some of my neighbors were without power for 9 days.

If I lived in SC, I would already have a hotel room booked somewhere far away.

there's good money to be made in predicting hurricanes.  you can get a little ahead of the market.  

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57 minutes ago, Keelala said:

I don't think my personal anecdotes belong in the main thread, so here you go. I've been watching Flo for about a week now, since I saw "tropical wave forming." No one believed me when I predicted it would hit the US. News sites even a few days ago were all don't worry, unprecedented, blah blah blah...

I predicted SC landfall, turning north inland to soak NC and VA. I said it would be strong and slow and I said pinhole eye. Could be wrong, hope I'm wrong. I just moved to a heavily wooded area in VA and we've had 3" of rain already this weekend. Walmart was packed today and they were down to just a few cases of water. Cashier said after Irene some of my neighbors were without power for 9 days.

If I lived in SC, I would already have a hotel room booked somewhere far away.

Care to elaborate on the rationale behind your predictions?  Or was it...just a hunch...

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14 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Care to elaborate on the rationale behind your predictions?  Or was it...just a hunch...

Well... a hunch. I'm not going to claim it was scientific because I'm not well-versed enough to back it up. I'm unemployed right now so my thing is... staying up all night and staring at maps. Radar, wind, pressure, ocean temp, etc. Saw it as an invest with the winds going the way they were, used the WindMap app to track it forward 5 days, and decided I didn't believe it was going to take a northward turn. Looked like it was on a fairly straight course. I know things are unpredictable two weeks in advance, just had a hunch.

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8 minutes ago, Keelala said:

Well... a hunch. I'm not going to claim it was scientific because I'm not well-versed enough to back it up. I'm unemployed right now so my thing is... staying up all night and staring at maps. Radar, wind, pressure, ocean temp, etc. Saw it as an invest with the winds going the way they were, used the WindMap app to track it forward 5 days, and decided I didn't believe it was going to take a northward turn. Looked like it was on a fairly straight course. I know things are unpredictable two weeks in advance, just had a hunch.

dank

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5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

that's definitely my new favorite past time. the rorshach test of "which of the 3 major hurricanes i ever paid attention to that this looks like"

my tropical experience includes Irma, Sandy, and Joaquin for 3 days so every storm that threatens the east coast reminds me of 1 those 3.

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41 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

why are NYC weenies the worst tropical posters? anyone have a theory?

hyper-excitement after Sandy hit up here. Every damn storm is going to be a "Sandy-redux" blah-blah-blah

Also, don't *EVER* go into the NYC forum if there's a blizzard anywhere on the east coast. The weenie talk during a hurricane is nothing compared to snowstorm talk. I often fear someone is going to be found dead at their computer from lack of sleep/food and the stress of proving themselves right on the message board. 

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9 minutes ago, oldnorthstate said:

So, I have a flight scheduled to land at RDU Thursday 4 AM.    How are my chances looking of that flight happening?

Airlines are already offering to re-book flights in that region for no fee.   Check your carrier website.  

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1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

then get these people under control.  the comparisons to irma based upon looks alone are worthless.

 

1 hour ago, jburns said:

I'm going to start with you.

 

tumblr_inline_mk5gq6Jn1M1qz4rgp.png

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