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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Agreed.  I was just wondering out loud if there is any real tendency for models to over-break down steering in the 3-5 day range.  I don’t know if that’s a real thing or not, but I’ve seen it happen more than it seems like it should.

Plenty of canes have stalled on or just off the coast.....usually though the models wouldn't be this clustered. The 00Z guidance is scary tight and the timing is getting well inside 72 hrs so just how much movement can there be in this range.....ultimately though if this thing stalls and loops offshore and misses altogether will anyone be that shocked......there just isn't much support for that at this time that all might change here in a few hrs with the 00Z's.

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8 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Start of a new trend? stay tuned. NAM is coming in SW of 18Z at hour 51

I don't trust the NAM, or really anything outside of the operational EC, UK and GFS, to have any chance to resolve this complicated steering pattern. Even if the NAM does stumble into an ultimately correct solution it's probably more of a broken clock being right twice a day scenario.

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284 
WTNT31 KNHC 110241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.  Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are
likely be issued for portions of these areas on Tuesday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 62.4 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward
speed are expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is expected during the
next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous
major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Is it me or has the path shifted more NW and east once on shore?

Not you, I see it too. Much closer to MHC now. Not good for us at all.

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1 hour ago, yotaman said:

I bought one off of Amazon and expect it Wednesday.

Anyone buying a generator or who has one should seriously look into the motor snorkel.  It pays for itself not having to buy a tri fuel gen and works great.  I have zero affiliation with them, just my own experience using it on our generator.  

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19 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said:

024408_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

This looks like a worst case scenario for Greenville, NC and Wilmington, NC. They are the two most populated cities in Eastern NC and filled with college students from all over that may not be familiar with how dangerous Hurricanes can be. 

I seriously hope something changes in these next few days. This could turn out to be really bad considering most of the college kids in Greenville live in areas that are very prone to flooding. 

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1 hour ago, WeatherNC said:

I am likely in the market for a generator tomorrow too.  Point of clarification on the above post and based on local media, Carteret is just maditory on the barrier islands starting in the AM.  Tomorrow is the action day for the coast, Wednesday would be for prone interior.  Indland counties will likely put out voluntaries as Beaufort is already doing

I just secured a hotel room in Beaufort, for Wednesday pm until Friday at noon, so I'm hoping they don't close it. 

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New NHC track forecast take it from extream Western Wake County on the 5 pm update to Extream Eastern Wake County and over Wake Forest on the 11 pm track update.

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Plenty of canes have stalled on or just off the coast.....usually though the models wouldn't be this clustered. The 00Z guidance is scary tight and the timing is getting well inside 72 hrs so just how much movement can there be in this range.....ultimately though if this thing stalls and loops offshore and misses altogether will anyone be that shocked......there just isn't much support for that at this time that all might change here in a few hrs with the 00Z's.

@Downeastnc remember this? 

Diana.jpg

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59 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Ok, that explains it.

It is a hard call and really is a no win situation. It is looking more and more like SC will be spared the worse, but based on the forecasts and possibility of a SC landfall you kinda have to male the call, and make it far enough ahead of time for people to plan and act. If it indeed keeps trending NE and farther away, there will be LOTS of frustrated people complaining about "having to evacuate for no reason", and "the forecasters are never right", etc, but of course the same people would be yelling the loudest if it actually hit and there had been no prep. Those people think weather is actually predictable and that forecasters should truly KNOW what it's going to do. He probably could have waited another 24 hours, but is obviously trying to err on the side of caution.

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I'm amazed at how small the western part of the precip shield is. GFS doesn't give any rain for central and western coastal plain, even though winds pick up. Strange.

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23 minutes ago, SENC said:

@Downeastnc remember this? 

Diana.jpg

Of course my first real hurricane Diana popped my tropical cherry.....I was 12 and she was the first real threat i remember.....

 

It appears our two eastern outliers the GFS and ICON have shifted west a bit.....ICON also no biting on the stall and west drift all the others have maybe that is a real trend \...its a ****ty one though lol 

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Of course my first real hurricane Diana popped my tropical cherry.....I was 12 and she was the first real threat i remember.....

 

It appears our two eastern outliers the GFS and ICON have shifted west a bit.....ICON also no biting on the stall and west drift all the others have maybe that is a real trend \...its a ****ty one though lol 

best I could find ATM..

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1859%3ANSOTGO>2.0.CO%3B2

 

Looking for the  atmospheric maps I'm coming up empty ATM..

 

Edit too add  ALOT of Folks have even forgetting this one.. 

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The take away from the GFS and ICON is they both came further west closer to the consensus track, this lessens the odds of a OTS track or even a stall and rot east of Hatteras......they also both have the stall and west drifts although the GFS appears to want to take that to a whole other level. 

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