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Hurricane Florence

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2 minutes ago, Regan said:

Right I was just confused why Wral was saying gusts 30-40 mph here. Not sustained. But gusts. 

Yeah use the NWS not WRAL.....they have models they use and it changes every run...if the models drop the stall and go back to a better hit inland on NC they will have to change there maps the NWS wont lol....

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 Well highest SFMR on the first pass was 101 kts. FL was a little better at 126 but Florence may have trouble maintaining cat 4 now with the expanded wind field.

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Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN.

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41 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

Maybe a Day 3 high risk, but there has been several Highs Risks issued by the WPC this year. In fact they issued one as the remnants of Gordon combined with a cold front of the OH Valley this past weekend.

Yeah, the 3 day part must be unusual. But still , pretty scary.

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50 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

High Risk excessive flash flood risk , issued by WPC! It’s only the 2nd time it’s ever issued one of those!! The 1st one was issued for Harvey!!

I just that "alert" too on My phone.. (I'm in Wilmington)

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3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN.

Thanks for your insight.  Can you please clarify what you mean by RAH/MHX would be your message?

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Just now, SouthWake33 said:

Thanks for your insight.  Can you please clarify what you mean by RAH/MHX would be your message?

National Weather Service Office in Raleigh and Morehead City.

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4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Real deal Floyd Irene sandwich if this lines up, we are well inside the cone. If I was in a position to inform the general public RAH/MHX would be my message based on the data I have access to, as opposed to subjective views from WRAL or WITN.

Hey post me up a link to those TAB outputs.....

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Hey post me up a link to those TAB outputs.....

Still waiting for Albany to update but based on SFWMD 0z are now well off the SC coast.

 

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Just now, WeatherNC said:

Still waiting for Albany to update but based on SFWMD 0z are now well off the SC coast.

 

Interesting maybe this stall business will vanish by tomorrow's run.....or at least just be a slowdown....

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If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table.  Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall.

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1 minute ago, Berlin1926 said:

If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table.  Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall.

Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system.

More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down.

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7 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system.

More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down.

Also keep in mind that where she stops is very dependent on several things and the models could easily be off on those things by 100-150 miles in this range and that will have major implications obviously....this is probably why the NHC is in no hurry to majorly change its forecast track.....

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Also keep in mind that where she stops is very dependent on several things and the models could easily be off on those things by 100-150 miles in this range and that will have major implications obviously....this is probably why the NHC is in no hurry to majorly change its forecast track.....

Well to be fair to NHC, they only had the Euro guidance at 5. No track changes on intermediate advisories. Since then the GFS and future-GFS have sort of caved to Euro, so we'll see what they do at 11, but I'd expect a rather big change.

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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

My aunt just texted me with a question that I hope one of you can answer...

 

"How big is Florence across at the moment?"

I did a google search and it said at 4 pm it was about 250 miles across.

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5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

My aunt just texted me with a question that I hope one of you can answer...

 

"How big is Florence across at the moment?"

Tell her it's about as wide as the state of SC.

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47 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah use the NWS not WRAL.....they have models they use and it changes every run...if the models drop the stall and go back to a better hit inland on NC they will have to change there maps the NWS wont lol....

It goes both ways though.  If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps

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35 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table.  Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall.

A related post on this - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51511-hurricane-florence/?do=findComment&comment=4986166

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

It goes both ways though.  If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps

Yeah but they do so in a measured fashion, rather than hugging every model run like us internet people like to do.

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4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Yeah but they do so in a measured fashion, rather than hugging every model run like us internet people like to do.

Reason I asked was because let’s be honest, most people watch their local news.  Let’s say someone is being told tonight 30-40mph GUSTS and they decide they stay it out. Risk the trees etc. Never knowing that there was almost double that being reported via NWS.  I’ve seen a lot the last few days.  I’ll be honest, I saw Fish day that tonight and felt some hope. Here’s to hoping this keeps trending away. Far as possible south seeing as how there’s little to no hope of it going well north anymore. 

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I still like landfall near ilm and then a slow slog west into southern nc bf turning back north. I can see a stall but I think a turn back south is bogus. Just basing this off climo, the hurricane's size and speed (inertia), and the overall pattern.  These model flops are annoying but also humorous after a bit of rum.

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I didn't expect this storm to get the classic east coast comma shape with weaker/drier west and south sides but it certainly looks to be taking on that appearance. Maybe it's just temporary but it could be tough to maintain cat 4 with that structure.

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3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I still like landfall near ilm and then a slow slog west into southern nc bf turning back north. I can see a stall but I think a turn back south is bogus. Just basing this off climo, the hurricane's size and speed (inertia), and the overall pattern.  These model flops are annoying but also humorous after a bit of rum.

This is where I am, I too think its gonna dump in somewhere between ILM and J'ville, though if the eye is big enough it might be big enough to cover that whole stretch.....it will move WNW inland a bit then stall and then move more NNW  and eventually to NNE......and probably spend way to much time over central and eastern NC....there is still around 54 hrs before landfall and there will be another north trend in the models.....

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Based on microwave, structure is taking its final shape before direct impacts are felt along the coast.  Another ERC is pretty clear at this point unless I am missing something.

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2 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

NAM - Florence stalls out east of Wilmington at 42 and refuses to budge for the rest of the run. There will be moisture.

So you're telling me I should put the top up on the convertible?

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