Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Realllly feel for those who uninstalled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 60/59 House is down to 64F...sucks, but not putting the heat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: 60/59 House is down to 64F...sucks, but not putting the heat on. Our house was hovering around 60 when I turned it on last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: 60/59 House is down to 64F...sucks, but not putting the heat on. Heat with those dews coming ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: 60/59 House is down to 64F...sucks, but not putting the heat on. Damn. It's 76/74 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1.37" rain last night and this AM. Largest qpf event since the snowstorms late last winter. Broke down and made a small fire in the wood stove yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Heat with those dews coming ? Notice I indicated I wasn't turning the heat on. Glad we don't live there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Notice I indicated I wasn't turning the heat on. Glad we don't live there though. Dews up near 70 now. Opening windows to warm up the house after 50+ hours in the 50’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dews up near 70 now. Opening windows to warm up the house after 50+ hours in the 50’s It's 82/73 here. Uckfe this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 65/62 Perfect amount of mugginess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 82/75 Not a fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 On 9/10/2018 at 1:39 PM, powderfreak said: Seeing bright banding on the leading edge of the precip shield is a sign of the changing times. The initial snow/mixed level is like 6,000ft with the initial wet bulbing as this moisture moves into the dry air mass. Funny I made this post because it looks like there was proof of snowflakes flying at 5,000ft in the Adirondacks when this initially moved in. This video from a local weather anchor out of Plattsburgh, NY does show snowflakes on Whiteface. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Predict with a high degree of confidence that before the end of the month the GFS will be trying to sell a snow event all the way down to < 1,000 el N of NJ ...and every one will employ the usual mantra defense mechanism of how horrible of a model it is ...when in reality they're hand ringing. Oh yeah... prior to peak color 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Predict with a high degree of confidence that before the end of the month the GFS will be trying to sell a snow event all the way down to < 1,000 el N of NJ ...and every one will employ the usual mantra defense mechanism of how horrible of a model it is ...when in reality they're hand ringing. Oh yeah... prior to peak color Speaking from experience huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 We have been low 70s with a Ne wind all day. Tstm to south early near Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Speaking from experience huh? More like repeating observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 15 hours ago, powderfreak said: Funny I made this post because it looks like there was proof of snowflakes flying at 5,000ft in the Adirondacks when this initially moved in. This video from a local weather anchor out of Plattsburgh, NY does show snowflakes on Whiteface. Great stuff as usual PF – sweet to have those ground observations confirming your thoughts. I guess we still have to get through this week of hellish dew points though – not sure how folks are going to survive lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s, but hopefully they’ll manage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: We have been low 70s with a Ne wind all day. Tstm to south early near Bob. Missed TAN but hit pretty good at work in Wrentham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Wa-hooow what a fantastic gunk day that is out there today. Slow moving downpours pulsing inside a general ambiance of diarrhea speeding thru the region at a hasty inches per hour - may as well be, Sunday Monday Tuesday Thursday Friday this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wa-hooow what a fantastic gunk day that is out there today. Slow moving downpours pulsing inside a general ambiance of diarrhea speeding thru the region at a hasty inches per hour - may as well be, Sunday Monday Tuesday Thursday Friday this week. Welcome to the summer WCT just experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Is the ‘cane gonna affect the pattern LR? Break up the ridge situation? Also, are LR forecasts less accurate when there’s one of these babies in the mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 23 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: Is the ‘cane gonna affect the pattern LR? Break up the ridge situation? Also, are LR forecasts less accurate when there’s one of these babies in the mix? It'll facilitate the long term cooling trend of the northern hemisphere that should last until about January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Seriously though, the super typhoon will probably have a larger say in the longwave pattern, but 4 named storms in the Atlantic will certainly shake up the heat balance. But recurving TCs can have fairly predictable downstream consequences, especially when they go through ET transition/re-intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Euro gives us a ton of rain.. nws mentioning up to 5 to 6 inches of rain with the remnants of Florence.. not boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Looks like we missed the return to deep summer up here. Even with sun this weekend it'll be low 80s and nights in the 50s...pretty much average summer wx for my locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Seriously though, the super typhoon will probably have a larger say in the longwave pattern, but 4 named storms in the Atlantic will certainly shake up the heat balance. But recurving TCs can have fairly predictable downstream consequences, especially when they go through ET transition/re-intensification. I keep coming back to the regime change vs W. Pac TC causal link to that, as not being sure which precedes ... The pattern in the GFS members/derivatives (EOFs) are signaling a major autumnal push beginning in about 7-10 days - but is that "anyway" or... is it because of the recurving... In other words - and this is supposition based upon observation - it is not entirely clear to me that the recurving TC and transition kinematics 'drives' the changes ... perhaps more so it re-enforces it. I am inclined (intuitively...) to suspect that the the hemisphere is changing and the TC's are caught up into it, Then...as their latent heat fluxes into the circulation eddies, and intensifies those gradients, ...that then transitively adds amplitude to the new regime - so more at positive feedback. That all said, yeah... either way, its pretty clear that the last week of September is destined to a much different hemispheric look - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 And by the way... I have noticed over the last five years since the GFS' computational upgrades ... that model tends to 'over do' that first tendency to +PNAP amplification of the year every late summer and early autumn. It will drive these -3 SD 500 mb atmospheric singularities through Ontario and sweep blue thicknesses and what actually verifies is more like sweet autumnal air with a tinge of frost at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I keep coming back to the regime change vs W. Pac TC causal link to that, as not being sure which precedes ... The pattern in the GFS members/derivatives (EOFs) are signaling a major autumnal push beginning in about 7-10 days - but is that "anyway" or... is it because of the recurving... In other words - and this is supposition based upon observation - it is not entirely clear to me that the recurving TC and transition kinematics 'drives' the changes ... perhaps more so it re-enforces it. I am inclined (intuitively...) to suspect that the the hemisphere is changing and the TC's are caught up into it, Then...as their latent heat fluxes into the circulation eddies, and intensifies those gradients, ...that then transitively adds amplitude to the new regime - so more at positive feedback. That all said, yeah... either way, its pretty clear that the last week of September is destined to a much different hemispheric look - That very well could be. I mean this time of year big cold fronts are likely anyway, but a recurving TC building up a big ridge can certainly facilitate a surge of cold air southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I keep coming back to the regime change vs W. Pac TC causal link to that, as not being sure which precedes ... The pattern in the GFS members/derivatives (EOFs) are signaling a major autumnal push beginning in about 7-10 days - but is that "anyway" or... is it because of the recurving... In other words - and this is supposition based upon observation - it is not entirely clear to me that the recurving TC and transition kinematics 'drives' the changes ... perhaps more so it re-enforces it. I am inclined (intuitively...) to suspect that the the hemisphere is changing and the TC's are caught up into it, Then...as their latent heat fluxes into the circulation eddies, and intensifies those gradients, ...that then transitively adds amplitude to the new regime - so more at positive feedback. That all said, yeah... either way, its pretty clear that the last week of September is destined to a much different hemispheric look - countering this, it seems is Mangkhut barreling west into Asia as a Cat 4 ... not recurving .. usu correlated with a warm surge in the CONUS in about 10 days, no? That would put warmth into the last week of Sept. - What the GFS is signaling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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