August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[psv88]

80/72, feels refreshing

[gravitylover]

It better be nice on Saturday, we have an outdoor wedding to go to and I can just imagine the disaster it will be if the weather is uncooperative.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Blue - this is continuous right?  Whats the total (top 5) number of 70+ lows?  Ill have to find uncs for the park and dig into EWR.

Yes, 23 consecutive days and counting for LGA. Monday was the 46th day this year at LGA with a 70 or warmer minimum. That is the 5th highest number of days by August 13th.

Most LGA days with a 70 degree or warmer minimum through August 13th:

#1...54 days....2010

#2...52 days....2012

#3...51 days....2006

#4...47 days....2013...2005

#5...46 days...2018

 

The total number of 90 degree or warmer days ranks a little higher by August 13th. 26 days through August 13th ranks in 4th place.

#1...38 days....2010

#2...28 days....2002

#3..27 days.....1949

#4..26 days.....2018...2012..1999...1955

 

[gravitylover]

What's with this storm moving WSW from this morning? Yesterday it was slightly offshore then moved north and inland and now it's along the NY/PA border. Is it going to keep moving that way and then get kicked east and out of here going mostly south of us or...? It's doing a big loop.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The WAR continues to beat long range forecast expectations. We keep adding 90 degree or warmer days when the long range forecast looked cooler. The normal Newark split for 8-15 is 84/68. So we will boost the monthly warm departure for the rest of this week.

Old day 10 EPS forecast

Current short range forecast

 

 

 

I would expect snow threats to continue the NW trend this winter like we saw last winter. This seems to be an on going situation rather then a short term trend. 

[Rock888]

Some really beautiful towers out to my west here. Looks like Newark and SI are getting some heavy rain at the least on radar.  Wonder if there’s any lightning with these. 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would expect snow threats to continue the NW trend this winter like we saw last winter. This seems to be an on going situation rather then a short term trend. 

It's our friend when the teleconnections and temperatures support snow. But record warmth runs the table  when the teleconnections favor a strong WAR like Dec 15 and Feb 18. That's how we have been getting these recent winters with extremes of warmth and snow.

[NortheastPAWx]

Pouring in Midtown.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Pouring in Midtown.

I can see the thunderheads over Manhattan/Staten Island from here, nice anvil tops. Hope it's fun underneath it. Maybe a few scraps can make it here.

[dWave]

5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Pouring in Midtown.

Flood advisory on that. Im on the northern edge of it but looks like its expanding over me. North shore SI to Fordham, Bx getting it good.

[bklnwx1]

Thunderheads from Sheepshead Bay looking north @ 3:15pm

[uncle W]

today was the 14th day in a row with a min 70 or higher to start August...the record is 18 set in 1988...NYC has 38 days with a min 70 or higher so far...since 1930 NYC is averaging almost 33 days with a min 70 or higher and a consecutive streak of almost 9....the 1950's and 60's had the lowest amounts...that was probably due to some dry summers...1962 had only 8 such days...2005 had 60///records are 61 in 1906...8 in 1962...

year total min 70+ consecutive 70+

1930..........26............8

1931..........34............7

1932..........25............6

1933..........33............6

1934..........26............4

1935..........29..........11

1936..........20............4

1937..........28............6

1938..........34..........12

1939..........44..........13.......29.9.........7.7

1940..........24............8

1941..........27............6

1942..........20............4

1943..........30............4

1944..........41..........14

1945..........29............4

1946..........11............3

1947..........30............5

1948..........29............6

1949..........43..........10......32.4........6.4

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10......29.4.......7.3

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6......23.9.......5.7

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17......33.2......10.3

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5......37.3.....11.4

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13......31.9.......9.3

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5.....34.5.......9.3

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40............9

2012..........47..........10

2013..........51..........19

2015..........33............9

2016..........51..........16

2017..........44............7.....45.7.....13.1

2018..........38..........13 as of 8/13.....

 

1876..........46..........14

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

[NewYorkweatherfan]

This summer blows. I think starting tomorrow and the rest of the month the humidity slows down and we start getting 60’s. We’ll definitely still have daytime heating though.

[Rtd208]

Current temp 70/DP 68/RH 88%

Picked up 0.07" of rain for the day.

[Cfa]

Today was my 30th day with a max dew point of 75 or greater. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.2[79.3].    Should be  +3.5[78.9] by the 23rd.  

[bluewave]

Rare combination of top 10 warmest temperatures and rainfall for August 1-14 across the area. 

Station...T rank....P rank

EWR......6th...10th

NYC......12th...6th

LGA.......3rd....6th

JFK.......9th....5th

ISP.......3rd.....6th

HPN.....4th.......5th

[SACRUS]

 

10AM ROundup;

ACY: 81
TTN: 80
TEB: 80
New Brnwck: 80
EWR: 79
JFK: 79
LGA: 79
PHL: 79
BLM: 78
ISP: 78
NYC: 76

[Stormlover74]

I think newark will top nyc by about 6 degrees today, 94 vs 88

[SACRUS]

 

11AM ROundup;

ACY: 84
LGA: 82
EWR: 82
TEB: 82
PHL: 82
BLM: 82
New Brnwck: 82
TTN: 81
JFK: 81
ISP: 80
NYC: 80

[SACRUS]

Dews 67-72 range

 

[SACRUS]

Noon ROundup;

 

ACY: 86
LGA: 85
EWR: 85
JFK: 85
PHL: 84
TTN: 84
TEB: 84
New Brnwck: 84
BLM: 83
ISP: 83
NYC: 83

[Stormlover74]

88/66 at ewr, surprised they went with a heat advisory. Its really not bad out. Real feel is low 90s

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

88/66 at ewr, surprised they went with a heat advisory. Its really not bad out. Real feel is low 90s

That's more of an indictment on how humid it's been, that low 90's doesn't feel that bad. 

Anyway as I'm sure you know, the forecasted indices met the criteria, hence the advisory.

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's more of an indictment on how humid it's been, that low 90's doesn't feel that bad. 

Anyway as I'm sure you know, the forecasted indices met the criteria, hence the advisory.

Yeah but didn't really come close. EWR's highest HI was 91, NYC 87

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but didn't really come close. EWR's highest HI was 91, NYC 87

The models aren't always right and it's up to the discretion of the forecaster anyway, which aren't always right. 

In any event, it's a heat advisory, I doubt they spent much time contemplating its validity. 

[Cfa]

Another 89 added to the list, this makes 5.

I’ve had 11 90+ days so far. Not sure what’s considered normal here, LI climo is a bit quirky.

[psv88]

39 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Another 89 added to the list, this makes 5.

I’ve had 11 90+ days so far. Not sure what’s considered normal here, LI climo is a bit quirky.

87 here, normal varies wildly on the island, really need to be location specific to the mile for that number

[psv88]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think newark will top nyc by about 6 degrees today, 94 vs 88

LGA and EWR hit 90, NYC 85, good call.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

LGA and EWR hit 90, NYC 85, good call.

The nyc joke continues. I think this wet period pretty much proved the wet vegetation theory. I wonder when Upton throws in the towel and officially stops using that site as the official one for nyc climate