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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed.

Heat reloads after next weekend, EPS shows even more ridging for early September. 

Getting 90s in September is a lot more difficult, but the potential is definitely there.

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1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed.

Thank G-d. This is like getting single digits and teens right before March. Enough is enough already.

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You know it's going to get hot this week when both the Euro and GFS MOS have mid to upper 90's. The heat index will go over 100 with the dew points in the 70's. Closer to normal temperatures expected for next Thursday through Saturday behind the backdoor cold front.

NEWARK              
 KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   8/25/2018  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28| WED 29| THU 30| FRI 31| SAT 01 CLIMO
 X/N  83| 66  87| 72  94| 76  97| 78  97| 73  82| 65  80| 66  82 63 81
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Looks like models are less with the closed low / easterly flow next weekend and more of a 2 -3 (Fri-sat/ sun) day cool down towards normal with more heat on/around labor day itself and into sep 4th week.  850s peaking 18 - 22 Tue - thu (8 28 - 30) ahead of front

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28 minutes ago, doncat said:

As of today station Aug mean temp stands at 76.9°...Warmest on 40 year record is 78.6° set in 2016, so with the up coming warmth will probably finish  3rd or so warmest.

Interesting pattern since meteorological winter of the last month of each season having the warmest departure.

LGA

Dec...-2.0

Jan...-1.5

Feb...+7.1

Mar....-1.4

Apr.....-3.3

May..+4.9

Jun...+0.7

Jul....+2.4

Aug..+3.6 so far

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On 8/20/2018 at 9:39 PM, JustinRP37 said:

February was +6.7F at KHPN and so far August has been +4.7F. Last month was +2.2. April was a coldest departure from normal at -2.1F, since March of 2015, which was -2.7 and February 2015 which was -6.7F. That February was the coldest departure from normal I have in that dataset since December 2010. Overall since I began compiling this data for tick projects, KHPN is running +1.8F above the 1981-2010 normals.

I agree, my thinking has been that  we are close to 2 degrees above the 1981-2010 average for today's climate.

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On 8/20/2018 at 10:01 PM, Brian5671 said:

August will likely finish +3 to +4 and Feb was a blowtorch as noted above...

I meant after Feb. I do agree that we are really about 2 degrees in reality over the 1981-2010 average today. Perhaps we should use 1.5 to 2 degrees over those averages and that would fit for today's climate.

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On 8/23/2018 at 9:03 AM, SACRUS said:

The cool down so far

LGA:

8/19: 75 / 70  -3
8/20: 75 / 68  -3
8/21: 81 / 68  -1
8/22:  87 / 73  +4
8/23:  80 / 68  -2
8/24:  85 / 70  +3
8/25:  81 / 71  +1

EWR: v

8/19:  73 / 68  -5
8/20: 75 / 68   -4 
8/21:  77 / 69   -2 
8/22: 86 / 71    +4
8/23:  81 / 66   -3
8/24:   85 / 63  -1
8/25:  80 / 66   -1

 

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8 hours ago, doncat said:

As of today station Aug mean temp stands at 76.9°...Warmest on 40 year record is 78.6° set in 2016, so with the up coming warmth will probably finish  3rd or so warmest.

September will likely be top 3 as well, the ridging looks to cycle throughout the month, we may even set a new monthly record, in face the entire CONUS might.

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Remainder of August averaging 81degs., or 8degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.9[77.4].    Should end August at  +2.9[78.1].

The full 8 days is averaging 79degs., or about 7degs. AN.

The RWTT still has the next 90 days with relentless heat (ie. AN).   This goes for most of the NH, not just the US and 2/3 of Canada.  I do not know what makes it tick and so I don't what it will take to change its output.

Hope the CFS does not start showing the 5400THK line over Hudson Bay for Dec., as I commented 3 years ago. 

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Several local stations already close to the warmest August on record before the big heat this week.

Local August heat rankings through 8/25:

EWR....#8....78.5

LGA.....#3.....80.3

JFK......#10...76.9

ISP......#4......76.3

BDR.....#2......77.5

HPN.....#3......75.3

MonthTDeptUS.png.f4b2da8a759ed7bc7be756bdddc14c39.png

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4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of August averaging 81degs., or 8degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.9[77.4].    Should end August at  +2.9[78.1].

The full 8 days is averaging 79degs., or about 7degs. AN.

The RWTT still has the next 90 days with relentless heat (ie. AN).   This goes for most of the NH, not just the US and 2/3 of Canada.  I do not know what makes it tick and so I don't what it will take to change its output.

Hope the CFS does not start showing the 5400THK line over Hudson Bay for Dec., as I commented 3 years ago. 

Love it!  Let’s have an old fashioned Indian Summer and perhaps we can barbecue our Thanksgiving Turkeys!

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