Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

[raindancewx]

Agung erupted five times in November 2017. Look at the AMO since Nov 2017.

 2017    0.225    0.226    0.167    0.282    0.314    0.307    0.302    0.309    0.350    0.433    0.351    0.363
 2018    0.172    0.062    0.131    0.063   -0.001   -0.012    0.017    0.112    0.161  -99.990  -99.990  -99.990

Look at 1963 after March.

 1963    0.158    0.166    0.134    0.104   -0.084   -0.047   -0.035   -0.073   -0.202   -0.071   -0.057   -0.060
 1964   -0.075    0.021    0.039   -0.146    0.041    0.004   -0.144   -0.234   -0.220   -0.271   -0.166   -0.121

Not Earth shattering, but a drop of around 0.3 in six months each time.

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

1963-64 had a major VEI eruption, and 1994-95 was a recovery year from a major VEI eruption (Pinatubo effect wore off), both in the Tropics. The background conditions for the prior winters (1962-63 and 1993-94) and actual weather in those two years are quite similar nationally. Agung erupted in 1963.

For what its worth, in 3/1963 the AMO had been warm for decades, then it cooled. Last year...Agung erupted. Guess what happened? AMO dramatically cooled. Yeah, it could be a coincidence, but it is interesting.

Yea but the winters of 64 and 95 were polar opposites so what good is this for predicting the winter outcome?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Great analysis as usual! Now I've got a few questions:

So...what exactly is the QBO now? (and where do we need it?) And what influence does that have on the AO? (And if the QBO doesn't help the AO go negative, what else can?) I saw in another analysis that El Niño winters with a positive QBO didn't have a lot of analogs (that was the an analysis from Raleighwx)

(And speaking of that...so I take it there's no sure way to tell at this moment what the AO/NAO will do a month from now?)

But overall...I guess that NAO will be the point of greatest interest? (Now that the Niño is practically here?)

And that's really crazy that the two best matches for where we are right now had polar opposite results, lol

It's in the middle of a phase change from negative to positive. It's last value was around -10 but rising rapidly. Im not sure why Allen assumed it will end up near +10-15 this winter. That's almost unprecedented. Past Nino years where the phase changed leading into winter to positive the winter value ended up positive but in the +3-8 range. So when he used 8 as the cutoff it left him with little analogs. But 1964 and 78 had similar qbo values leading up to winter. I'm not an expert on the qbo though. 

I should have included the pdo in my analysis. The results don't change much though. The rest of the signals in modoki years seem random and conflicting. Very little discernible correlation. Perhaps then the enso is the driving factor unless it's a year like 95 where a raging positive nao and ao wreck everything. 

[raindancewx]

I think you have to assume that 1963-64 was unusually cold in areas most susceptible to solar energy variation (dry mountainous areas away from marine layers, deserts, places with little light in winter, etc) and then when the aerosol effect vanished and all that was left was the enhanced greenhouse gasses from Pinatubo in 1994-95 those same areas warmed dramatically. Since 1892, the coldest February here on record is February 1964, and then 1994-95 is easily one of our warmest winters. My high was 40F in February 1964. Average is 53F for February. You can predict about 65% of the variation in El Nino winter highs here with Nino 3.4 SSTs in DJF, solar activity, and prior DJF SSTs, but the two great exceptions to the regression are 1963 and 1994, which is why I think the added / subtracted aerosol effect is the key.

The "non-volcanic" versions of 1963/1994 is simply the blend to me, which looks like...95% of the forecasts coming out this year.

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I think you have to assume that 1963-64 was unusually cold in areas most susceptible to solar energy variation (dry mountainous areas away from marine layers, deserts, places with little light in winter, etc) and then when the aerosol effect vanished and all that was left was the enhanced greenhouse gasses from Pinatubo in 1994-95 those same areas warmed dramatically. Since 1892, the coldest February here on record is February 1964, and then 1994-95 is easily one of our warmest winters. My high was 40F in February 1964. Average is 53F for February. You can predict about 65% of the variation in El Nino winter highs here with Nino 3.4 SSTs in DJF, solar activity, and prior DJF SSTs, but the two great exceptions to the regression are 1963 and 1994, which is why I think the added / subtracted aerosol effect is the key.

The "non-volcanic" versions of 1963/1994 is simply the blend to me, which looks like...95% of the forecasts coming out this year.

Interesting theory. I admit I don't know enough about it to add anything but I'll sacrifice one of our best analogs (1964) if it also takes out the one complete bust year (1995). 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Of course, when you have something like 300 straight days of +NAO it's probably going to break the other way for the Winter. (A lot of change is being absorbed by the market now!)

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Of course, when you have something like 300 straight days of +NAO it's probably going to break the other way for the Winter. (A lot of change is being absorbed by the market now!)

The good old "were due" index is on our side 

[WxUSAF]

New CANSIPS coming in HOT

 

[Bob Chill]

lol- I was surprised nobody posted the CANSIPS until I realized I was in the wrong thread. Looks good to me. Implies a general nino pattern and back loaded. All 3 months are acceptable imo. 

[WxUSAF]

43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

lol- I was surprised nobody posted the CANSIPS until I realized I was in the wrong thread. Looks good to me. Implies a general nino pattern and back loaded. All 3 months are acceptable imo. 

Yup and into March appparently. If it’s right in December, it probably ends up above average somewhat on temps given that 500 pattern but would probably offer a few chances if that ridge wobbles back to the west coast at times. 

[showmethesnow]

For those that follow here is the final snow advance in Eurasia for Oct. Saw a large spike in the last week of October for Eurasia snow cover. Snow cover in N America is still chugging along above average.

 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup and into March appparently. If it’s right in December, it probably ends up above average somewhat on temps given that 500 pattern but would probably offer a few chances if that ridge wobbles back to the west coast at times. 

Dec and Jan ain't bad at all- probably somewhat changeable but certainly should be some chances.  Feb and March look downright epic.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Dec and Jan ain't bad at all- probably somewhat changeable but certainly should be some chances.  Feb and March look downright epic.

Cansips does half decent at 1 month leads and I liked what I saw in December. Not saying it was stellar at all but there were some key crap pattern features that were nowhere to be seen (AK vortex, -PNA, raging +AO/NAO etc). If we can't have a great pattern in Dec the next best thing is one that doesn't have the things that ruin our hopes and dreams for months. My optimism has been increasing every week that goes by. I just want to have a decent couple of events. If we don't have one by the end of Jan it will be 3 years since my yard has anything that I would call "good". 

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cansips does half decent at 1 month leads and I liked what I saw in December. Not saying it was stellar at all but there were some key crap pattern features that were nowhere to be seen (AK vortex, -PNA, raging +AO/NAO etc). If we can't have a great pattern in Dec the next best thing is one that doesn't have the things that ruin our hopes and dreams for months. My optimism has been increasing every week that goes by. I just want to have a decent couple of events. If we don't have one by the end of Jan it will be 3 years since my yard has anything that I would call "good". 

I agree with this assessment.

Just looking at the new edition of EPS weeklies- focusing on Dec 1-17(way out there but who really cares about Nov lol). Very favorable out west for the first half of Dec, and near perfection towards the end of the run. Atlantic side - not much in the way of NA blocking, but not hostile at all. NAO probably neutral overall. I would take it.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cansips does half decent at 1 month leads and I liked what I saw in December. Not saying it was stellar at all but there were some key crap pattern features that were nowhere to be seen (AK vortex, -PNA, raging +AO/NAO etc). If we can't have a great pattern in Dec the next best thing is one that doesn't have the things that ruin our hopes and dreams for months. My optimism has been increasing every week that goes by. I just want to have a decent couple of events. If we don't have one by the end of Jan it will be 3 years since my yard has anything that I would call "good". 

Having a not bad pattern in December is huge because looking at all the analogs the only 2 that really stick out as bad feature a god awful look up top from Alaska across to Greenland that set up in December and crushed the winter. Many of the others featured meh decembers with an eastern ridge and no snow but went on to either epic second halfs or at least respectable. The rest really are similar. Even the low one 2005 was mostly just bad luck imo. If you look at the h5 pattern from January 15 on it's not all that different from the years that were epic. My take is we had one in the set where everything went right, 2010, and one where everything went wrong 2005. But if wrong is a few old fashioned moderate snowstorms the second half of winter I can live with those odds. Just get us a look where we can start to rule out the 1992/1995 analogs and I'm good. 

[midatlanticweather]

Something new for winter. Snow squall warnings https://www.weather.gov/safety/winter-snow-squall

[fountainguy97]

Posted this in the winter contest by mistake.

Here is our winter forecast from Carolina Weather! Check it out! It is nothing groundbreaking.

 

https://www.carolina-weather.com/winter-2018-19/2018/11/1/2018-2019-winter-forecast

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

Something new for winter. Snow squall warnings https://www.weather.gov/safety/winter-snow-squall

Thanks for this. I will be interested to see how well this does with the LE Streamers that set up over this area a few times per winter. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Now uh...there's talk in the ENSO thread about how the warmth is going from west to east...as opposed to starting from east and draining west like it did in years like 2002 and 2009...Now, wha6 do we want, ideally? West-central based El Niños? (And what happens in the basin-wide and east based events? Any duds?)

[midatlanticweather]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now uh...there's talk in the ENSO thread about how the warmth is going from west to east...as opposed to starting from east and draining west like it did in years like 2002 and 2009...Now, wha6 do we want, ideally? West-central based El Niños? (And what happens in the basin-wide and east based events? Any duds?)

That is not good. Looks like we got Nino

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/30/2018 at 3:34 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

I posted a NWS survey in the banter thread yesterday regarding something similar to this, but I understood one of the options to be for everything that ends up being warned, it would come from a general Winter Storm Watch, then go under the classification of Winter Storm Warning for X. The X could be for blizzard conditions, accumulating snow, mix, or ice accumulations. I'm assuming they'd still have the advisory for storms that don't meet the warning criteria, but the idea is one warning for winter events and eliminate Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings.

I think that several Great Lakes weather offices have already discontinued the Lake Effect Snow Warning and now just use WSW.

That is correct.   Snow Squall Warnings are being developed as well for national deployment in the next year and will hit the Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA).

[mattie g]

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now uh...there's talk in the ENSO thread about how the warmth is going from west to east...as opposed to starting from east and draining west like it did in years like 2002 and 2009...Now, wha6 do we want, ideally? West-central based El Niños? (And what happens in the basin-wide and east based events? Any duds?)

 

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

That is not good. Looks like we got Nino

 

 

@leesburg 04

[showmethesnow]

16 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now uh...there's talk in the ENSO thread about how the warmth is going from west to east...as opposed to starting from east and draining west like it did in years like 2002 and 2009...Now, wha6 do we want, ideally? West-central based El Niños? (And what happens in the basin-wide and east based events? Any duds?)

Glanced over the discussion this morning and I not sure there is really a concern. Think if this does morph into an E based Nino it will occur in the backend of winter. I believe there is a lag time of several weeks/month for the change in forcing to occur so we may already be heading into spring at that point. Even if it does occur a little sooner the Favorable MJO phases for our region in the backend of winter shift so we may very well golden anyway. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is fun

[nj2va]

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/11/02/winter-forecast-2018-2019/

Nice forecast write up by John Homenuk and his team.  Explains the reasoning well and supports many other’s thinking that the back half of winter will be loaded.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

In fact

[motsco]

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

In fact

of rain.  

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is fun

Drought!!!

[yoda]

Don't know if this was posted already... but DT's winter forecast is out -- we take and run

 

[nj2va]

Don't know if this was posted already... but DT's winter forecast is out -- we take and run
 

He’s going all in with 200% avg snowfall. No complaints here.