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Winter 2018-19 Is Coming


WxUSAF

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What was your methodology?

Research model results, based on index values. Added some subjective interpretation given that El Nino will be going up against a persistent looking anomalous cold set-up in east-central Canada that is already well ahead of seasonal normals (Hudson Bay for example running 3-4 deg below average SST and close to freezing up 2 months early). I think the overall pattern will be the typical El Nino in west and south but with a tighter jet emerging from northwest into the central plains states and taking a wide turn, not rebounding until clear of the east coast much of the time. The index values suggested that might relax in early January pumping up the warmth that will otherwise be suppressed to the south. I don't see the overall forecast as hugely different from the outlooks I have seen in any case. The main detail that may be different is the much above normal temps in early January and late February. 

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3 hours ago, yoda said:

I forget which meteorologist it was last night... but it was the 11pm news on either channel 4 or 9... and he said if this were winter time we would be talking about 10-15 inches of snow on the way for our region

Oh stahp.....you're killin' me, dude! Lol That being said...any data on whether nor'easters in October meant anything at all for the winter? :D

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6 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Here's my stab in the dark ...

December will feature some colder than average periods and a good chance for perhaps one decent snowfall event, that most likely around Dec 20-22. 

January will torch for the first half, record highs are possible. Then it will turn much colder in stages. There may be a second decent snowfall event in late January.

February will retain the late January cold briefly then turn warmer rather steadily, becoming much above normal late in the month.

March will continue this very warm trend. 

Overall then a mildish winter with some brief but possibly tolerable winter spells, snowfall near normal generally despite some of the better intervals (climatology) being too warm. 

If Roger is bearish we are F’d. There are times when we got a wintry mix and he predicted 20”.

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This is good indeed and I know last week HM alluded to the NH progression and the formation of the Ural  anticyclone. He posted as well on his Twitter feed he dislikes talk of the strat when it pertains to things that are what he calls trivial.  But, I still like to follow preconditions to the PV weakenings or displacements. I find it interesting nonetheless.  I always value HM's insights. I followed him back on Wright Weather on  AOL dialup back in the days :-)  

On a side note,  from Judah this AM:

 

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Wouldn't say that I am bearish about this winter, just seeing a mix of good and bad patterns, when good (mid-Dec, late Jan) you could get some decent snowfalls.

I am going to be predicting near or just slightly above average amounts in the contest when that opens up. But don't anyone be too surprised if it hits 70 or higher in early January is the main message I bring in case December starts looking good. Any December snow won't stay on the ground until the next snowfall event anyway. But I don't think it will be non-stop torch like 2012.

And sometimes in a warm March pattern you can get a brief reversal and slip in a bonus snowfall. 

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2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Wouldn't say that I am bearish about this winter, just seeing a mix of good and bad patterns, when good (mid-Dec, late Jan) you could get some decent snowfalls.

I am going to be predicting near or just slightly above average amounts in the contest when that opens up. But don't anyone be too surprised if it hits 70 or higher in early January is the main message I bring in case December starts looking good. Any December snow won't stay on the ground until the next snowfall event anyway. But I don't think it will be non-stop torch like 2012.

And sometimes in a warm March pattern you can get a brief reversal and slip in a bonus snowfall. 

Without any scientific reasoning you can almost always predict less than historical average snow for the MA and usually be right regardless of the setup.  So many things have to go our way for it to snow especially 95 corridor. I’ll predict a tick below normal maybe just not 2 ticks this year.  

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I know another variation of this was posted above but I like the chart here and looking ahead at the 31 st with the weather models it is possible after a brief Siberian warm up another bout of snow sweeps East and South and provides additional snow cover on the last two days of the month. So then you have a situation with a good ending with a rapid SAI and also a very good snowfall coverage in addition to snowfall advance. 

 

 

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On 9/30/2018 at 12:11 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I added more years and another column for October precipitation leading into Modoki El Ninos.  October precip relative to average @ DCA may give a good estimate of how good a winter we get!

Modoki El Ninos (DCA)

 

Winter

 

SOI

 

Winter Snow

 

 +/- Winter Snow

 

Winter NAO

 

Nov Temp

 

Dec Temp

 

Nov NAO

 

Dec NAO

 

Oct Precip

 

1952-53

 

Weak

 

8.3"

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

0.66" -

 

1953-54

 

Weak

 

18"

 

+

 

+

 

-

 

+

 

+

 

+

 

3.73" +

 

1958-59

 

Weak

 

4.9"

 

-

 

-

 

N

 

-

 

+

 

-

 

2.35" -

 

1976-77

 

Weak

 

11.1"

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

 + (N)

 

-

 

7.76" +

 

1977-78

 

Weak

 

22.7"

 

+

 

N (+)

 

+

 

N / (-)

 

N

 

N

 

5.35" +

 

1979-80

 

Weak

 

20.1"

 

+

 

-

 

+

 

+

 

+

 

+

 

5.54" +

 

1986-87

 

Moderate

 

31.1"

 

+

 

N

 

-

 

+

 

+

 

+

 

2.01" -

 

1991-92

 

Strong

 

6.6"

 

-

 

+

 

-

 

+

 

+

 

+

 

2.03" -

 

1994-95

 

Weak/Moderate

 

10.1"

 

-

 

+

 

+

 

+

 

N

 

+

 

1.19" -

 

2002-03

 

Moderate

 

40.4"

 

+

 

N

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

N

 

5" +

 

2004-05

 

Weak

 

12.5"

 

-

 

N

 

+

 

N

 

N

 

+

 

1.74" -

 

2009-10

 

Moderate

 

46"

 

+

 

-

 

+

 

-

 

+

 

-

 

5.71" +

 

 

 

 

@BTRWx's Thanks Giving Now that we're seeing our last precipitation for October...thought I'd repost your chart. Now uh...we're below normal...and according this, that only worked one time in 60 years preceding a Modoki: when it was moderate strength! All the weak ones seem to have failed...

So...correlation or coincidence? If correlation...welp, may have to suffer one more winter, lol

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

It's only above normal for those in the dark blue stripe.

Yeah it's low for the mountains above 2000 feet for sure, but it's above average for the Shenandoah Valley. I guess it's average to slightly above for other areas---above for Frederick MD--and maybe slightly below for your area in Carroll.

I have to think Topper wasn't really making an educated guess when it came to Western Maryland and Allegheny Mountains.

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a month away from a decent window into how winter starts but in my eyes the upcoming season has as good a chance as any for a good winter. If it still looks good in a month I'm going full weenie. Until then my weenie will remain under wraps

Gonna be a long 30 days...lol Now I am one prone to look at trends that may not have a scientific based but seem to correlate. Based on the chart I just shared...my expectations are tempered. But if you go full weenie I'm goin' with ya!! Lol 

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