LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: models got that part right....they nail BDR and points east tonight with new activity...models had the "jump zone" yesterday and looks like they were on to something. (this doesn't include the day time heating pop up activity we are seeing now inland) We have seen the jump many times. Im not sure of the mechanism that causes it. Inland areas do well with localized convection and then an organized area of convection shoots up from (I would think the Gulf Stream) and becomes an organized area of strataform rains for eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, seanick said: Some of these cells are dropping inch an hour rates. @seanick I have Radarscope too in vcp precip mode, but how do you enable precip that has fallen as is seen on your screencap? Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: @seanick I have Radarscope too in vcp precip mode, but how do you enable precip that has fallen as is seen on your screencap? Thanks ! I'm using the mobile android app. From the drop down list you select one hour rainfall totals. Then use the inspector tool and hover over the cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Have had about 2.50" here last several days...pretty much in line with model projections up to this point for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Some lightning showing up with the Morris County cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Looking more and more likely that we end up with some light stratiform rains from the city east later. Thus totals are going to fall short of earlier forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 that cluster over delaware has a good chance at hitting us later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Hopefully forky is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 We're in a bit of dry area, but as you can see, the moisture plume coming up from the mid-atlantic is still pointed right at our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Looking more and more likely that we end up with some light stratiform rains from the city east later. Thus totals are going to fall short of earlier forecasts for whatever reason, those echos are falling apart as they approach LI. Same thing happened Monday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 its f**king annoying with KDOX down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Hopefully forky is rightHope he's right too, but all the heavy rains definitely lighten up as they approach our latitude.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 pouring rain here. Rain lasted 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 25, 2018 Author Share Posted July 25, 2018 Current temp 81/DP 75/RH 79% Picked up 0.49" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 so far 0.54” today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 lee goldberg had a graphic (futurecast) aka ****cast. of heavy showers and storms over the area from 8pm-3am. indont see that but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: lee goldberg had a graphic (futurecast) aka ****cast. of heavy showers and storms over the area from 8pm-3am. indont see that but we’ll see. It's all west of us now but if it shifts east we could get hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's all west of us now but if it shifts east we could get hit Notice the convection near Baltimore/DC is moving due east , this will all fill in and hit the metro after 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Last time we had over 15.00 inches of rain during a calendar month was August 2011. Baltimore (BWI) is up to 15.04 inches of rain this month. Closing in on the 18.35 inch all-time monthly record in Aug 1955. Remarkably that location has had three days of 3+ inch rainfall in the eight days ending yesterday (two days well past). That ties for the most in a YEAR. pic.twitter.com/lpVA3QUost 6:51 AM - 25 Jul 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Insane rainfall rates for PA right now on top of the days of rain already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Flash flood watch hoisted further east. rainfall rates of up to an inch an hour with as much as 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Came home to find at least another 1" fell throughout the day. More tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 the convective system west of us is showing no indications of weakening and the convection that was modeled to hit long island doesn't appear to be forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 stuff in MD and PA is training north over the same areas hit all week. Light stuff east of the Delaware filling in a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Radar indicating over 10 inches of rain over the last few days just east of Harrisburg (not including Saturday's soaker). Had this set up 30 miles east my rafting trip would be kaput. Also I have to say the models have really struggled to get a hold of this convective situation. As much as they can be aggravating during the winter traditional coastal storms are much more their wheelhouse. The HRRR has probably been the least bad but situations like this are supposed to be its forte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Just got the heaviest downpour of the day so far here in SW Suffolk. But it was a pretty small cell so it was brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just got the heaviest downpour of the day so far here in SW Suffolk. But it was a pretty small cell so it was brief. Just missed me to the west. Only 0.14” today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 That line in PA is nuts. Bad news for them. It just doesn’t seem to be making much progress. I think part of our problem is we are now in a more stable marine environment. I have really been noticing the last few days you need water temps 80+ to get good convection going. Kind of like with hurricanes. Low to mid 70s just doesn’t cut it. Still holding out hope for better rains tonight and when I say hope the Wantagh meso is .99” for this entire event since Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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