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Minnesota_storms

April 12th-15th Winter Storm

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Well if the 0z NAM pans out - Stebo and I will be dealing with some prolific icing. GFS is further north by roughly 40-50 miles... yuck. Forecast soundings really are textbook quality for this event if all pans out. 

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On 4/11/2018 at 12:07 AM, cyclone77 said:

Looks like a band of showers and embedded thunder Friday night, dry slot Sat, and flurries Sun for most of the DVN cwa.

Thoughts from last night still apply.  Sort of a meh type system for this area.  Rains should help to green things up though.  

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

APX AFD a hilarious read this morning. :lol:

Yea, def one of their bests in a while, granted the weather has been horrible the past 3 months. 

Quote
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...Here Comes the Storm...

Primary Forecast Concern...Pops, precipitation type and amounts as
well as the potential for dangerous icing and power outages.

Boy this storm approaching from the Plains states has the potential
to be quite a whopper. Copious amounts of moisture overrides a
boundary draped right across northern Michigan (lucky us). In
addition, arctic high pressure anchored to our north will provide
low level cold air while warmer air overrides the front at mid
levels. Throw some convection into the mix and you have a complex
convoluted mess with lots of potential to have major impacts on the
region. Models all in general agreement on the track of the low
pressure system crawling northeastward out of the Plains.
Differences arise over the amount of low level cold air and mid
level warm air which will determine in what form the 1 to perhaps
1.5 inches of qpf fall. Unfortunately the complexity of this
situation is off the charts difficulty wise but will hopefully be
able to come close (like maybe achieving an 80% on a big exam). With
the strong baroclinc zone over the region (-5 C north to +5 south at
850 mb) mostly solid precipitation (snow and sleet) expected across
eastern upper and far northern lower with snow, sleet and freezing
rain in between while freezing rain and rain falls across the south.
Snow/sleet accumulations through Saturday generally 6 to 10 inches
north (with more Saturday night into Sunday), ice accumulations of a
tenth or two central and possibly over a quarter of an inch far
south (all through Saturday with more likely into Sunday). Expect
adjustments in future forecasts. Will be issuing winter storm watch
headlines for all of northern lower for the potential for a very
impactful and likely dangerous winter storm. Also in the mix of
possibilities is a lull in activity Saturday as dry air advects in
from the north before moisture likely reloads later Saturday night
through at least Sunday. The watch will start Friday morning across
the northern half of northern lower as it looks cold enough for
snow, sleet and freezing rain. Farther south, mainly rain is
expected Friday so the watch will begin late Friday night. All
watches will end late Sunday afternoon. Will not have a watch across
eastern upper as the dry air is expected to keep significant
precipitation to the south across northern lower (but this could
change). Almost forgot gusty northeast winds could exasperate the
situation.

 

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Thoughts from last night still apply.  Sort of a meh type system for this area.  Rains should help to green things up though.  

Looks even more Meh here. However, I am ok with a “meh” potential winter storm in mid-April. 

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6 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said:

Even though the models have no ice for me NWS thinks different.

StormTotalIceFcst.png

That would be Cat3 

 

Hopefully this afternoon we can get a more refined idea of P-type, even as a winter lover I'll take anything over an icing event. My gut says no way we get this much ice in mid April but who knows the way this month has panned out so far.

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Please happen.

I took Monday off.... heading to where ever the snow falls on Sunday morning. If it's amazing enough.

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40 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Makes sure you bring your generator with you as well.

I'm hoping to get a small RV in the next few years... I'll tow the sleds with that and never worry about hotels anymore.

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Not snow but looking like 2-3" of rain could fall here. This will be much needed as we haven't had a single inch of rain since the middle of february. A Freaking Inch! Also might get some thunderstorms here which is also nice as I havent heard thunder at all yet.

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Deformation band potential getting slightly more interesting for LOT.  It occurs partly daytime and partly after dark on Sunday so not as ideal as all after dark.  GEM actually puts it more in IN.

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Impressed with the amount of cold air with this system considering it is mid April.  I haven't dug into dgz/snow growth potential to get a better idea of ratios but some of the snow area will have temps well down into the 20s.  Even the band that goes through here Sun night/Mon could have temps falling into the 20s on the back end.

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9 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

6z NAM has over 2" of qpf as sleet at YYZ. Better that than ZR i guess.

Looking more and more likely this will be a decent sleet storm before we see the potential for heavy rain later Sunday into Monday. Could definitely see 2-4" of qpf over the next few days which is a month's worth of precipitation. A nice reprieve from the dry and boring March we had. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Looking more and more likely this will be a decent sleet storm before we see the potential for heavy rain later Sunday into Monday. Could definitely see 2-4" of qpf over the next few days which is a month's worth of precipitation. A nice reprieve from the dry and boring March we had. 

 

Any sleet that falls this weekend will add to the seasonal snowfall total at YYZ. Sleet is considered as a form of frozen precipitation  (snow). 

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Some of 12z Euro ensemble members are colder than the op run and bring significant snowfall/sleet to the Greater Toronto Area on Saturday afternoon/evening. They are faster in sagging the backdoor cold front on Saturday morning. The 12z WRF run from today hints at this.

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16 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Crazy storm. Been a while since Wisconsin and central Michigan have had a big winter storm.

Super Tuesday 08 was a doozy for Central MI and WI.

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23 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Super Tuesday 08 was a doozy for Central MI and WI.

Yeah the interstate even closed down for a while during the storm. Its the reason why there is gates on some interstate exits in the state.

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8 hours ago, harrisale said:

Ice event beginning to look a bit more likely now. I think the question now is how much will be IP vs. ZR.

76E22054-20CA-45A4-8371-87A75EC9BB9E.jpeg

I was going with climo and thinking the biggest ZR threat would be to our north. Now it seems like it actually may be S/W of the escarpment and we get pelleted to death. 

Just another nudge 'til we're in snow. :) 

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