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April 12th-15th Winter Storm


MNstorms

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

6z NAM has us in the mid 20s during the day on Saturday with +PL.

The April 2003 ice-storm is a decent analogy but, like Stebo said, it was two weeks earlier than this one. Sort of hard to believe it could be that cold during the daylight hours in mid-April.

We had an ice storm in mid April 2013

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APX on it as usual

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LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...Major storm system still likely...

Primary Forecast Concern...Pops and weather type through the period.

A deepening and very slow moving area of low pressure continues to
move toward the region Friday night and stalls out across the area
over the weekend and likely even into early next week. This is due
to strong upper level and surface blocking to the north. In
addition, the strong surface high is still shown to cycle in
a decent amount of cold low level air (especially over the weekend).
The strong baroclinic zone (thermal temperature gradient) will
likely yield a wide variety of precipitation types over relatively
short distances which happens to lie across northern Michigan which
makes this forecast extremely challenging. Models continue to
advertise a good amount of qpf (upwards of 2 inches). In addition,
models continue to trend farther south and colder which could result
in more solid and less liquid precipitation and given potential qpf
amounts some spots could see a LOT of snow. The ECMWF and now even
GFS model soundings for Gaylord (and points north) keep much of this
event mainly snow (exception may be Friday) which could easily add
up to a foot or more (yelp). Even farther south soundings are on the
fringe of mainly all snow or a mix of rain and snow or perhaps even
some freezing rain. Potential remains for this system to have major
impacts on northern Michigan including but not limited to power
outages and serious travel difficulties. Stay tuned as this could
become very interesting if not historic.

 

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DVN on Sat Nite & Sunday:

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Friday Night through Sunday

Cyclonic circulation around an expansive, nearly stacked upper-
low will gradually wrap colder air southward into Iowa and
Illinois. Models also have an anomalously strong surface high
(1045 mb) situated over the southern Hudson Bay region, which will
drive cold and dry air southward. This synoptic setup is
conducive for a band of heavy snow to develop northwest of the
surface low. The ECMWF is most aggressive with a secondary
surface low forming in northern Indiana as the large upper trough
takes on a negative tilt. The CMC/GFS are beginning to show a
similar scenario but are not as organized with the comma
head/TROWAL feature.

Our current forecast is conservative on the degree of cold air
advection and potential for snow, especially Saturday night into
Sunday. However, don`t want to stray too far from the blend until
the models come into better agreement on the strength and
location of the secondary low. Confidence remains low and changes
to the forecast can be expected for the next several days. Stay
tuned. Uttech

 

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3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

6z NAM has us in the mid 20s during the day on Saturday with +PL.

The April 2003 ice-storm is a decent analogy but, like Stebo said, it was two weeks earlier than this one. Sort of hard to believe it could be that cold during the daylight hours in mid-April.

I do have some doubt as well but some ice is definitely possible. That strong HP across Northern Ontario/Quebec will set-up a strong NE wind off the cold Lake across much of the area through-out Sunday and in that time-frame, I could definitely see some ice accretion. Once the NAM 3km and RGEM come into range, we will see if the higher resolution models pick up on the CAD as the global models are currently showing. That H5 look is simply beautiful, why couldn't this storm have happened in January or something. 

 

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3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I do have some doubt as well but some ice is definitely possible. That strong HP across Northern Ontario/Quebec will set-up a strong NE wind off the cold Lake across much of the area through-out Sunday and in that time-frame, I could definitely see some ice accretion. Once the NAM 3km and RGEM come into range, we will see if the higher resolution models pick up on the CAD as the global models are currently showing. That H5 look is simply beautiful, why couldn't this storm have happened in January or something. 

 

Trend at 12z was a bit further north with the front. RGEM/GGEM now all liquid.

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5 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Trend at 12z was a bit further north with the front. RGEM/GGEM now all liquid.

GFS went a tad north with the ice zone as well. A bit surprised that Environment Canada is raising the profile of this event so early by including language for a 'potential ice storm' in the special weather statement. Seen many an ice event on the models fail to pan out, especially since we are over 90 hours from the main event. We all know these events even bust day-of.

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22 minutes ago, harrisale said:

GFS went a tad north with the ice zone as well. A bit surprised that Environment Canada is raising the profile of this event so early by including language for a 'potential ice storm' in the special weather statement. Seen many an ice event on the models fail to pan out, especially since we are over 90 hours from the main event. We all know these events even bust day-of.

You make a good point. Won't be able to blame social media on this one if it busts.

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12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I am hoping that the cold front doesn't make it this far south, I definitely don't want a major ice storm this late in the season.

At least the trees aren't leafed out... then it would really up the damage potential. But I can't imagine it's common to get ice storms with leafed out trees.

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4 minutes ago, ORDIOWPITMSP said:

Pretty wild snow totals the models keep consistently throwing out each run for central MN. I wonder how much of that will end of as sleet or freezing rain though. It is going to be a fun few days here in the the twin cities for sure. 

The 18z GFS output was plain wild. Dumps 1.5" of precip (which is 10:1+ snow)

qpf_006h.us_nc.thumb.png.a137dab75078c4490159bc1ea0504b0d.png

And the weenie map for that 6 hour period

snku_006h.us_nc.thumb.png.a72564cdf243911ec846dbeb512e0606.png

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10 hours ago, on_wx said:

Yeah was localized around Midwest Ontario. We were still without hydro for 16 hours in Waterloo!

It was my worst. It started late evening and went into the middle of the night April 13 IIRC. I had no power for 5 hours where the one that December that devastated Toronto didn't even cause a brief outage but I was lucky because 1 minute north of me there was. This upcoming possible event would be very similar except far more precip is in the mix and would be ongoing during the day. It would fall virtually on the same day 5 years ago as the other ice storm.

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