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Minnesota_storms

April 12th-15th Winter Storm

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I just read an article about how the PW values in several parts of California and Nevada were at all-time record high levels over the weekend, in some cases beating the old record by a solid .1-.2, for any ‘winter’ month. 

Are the models over doing precipitation because of this (I saw 30”+ of snow in northern Michigan from both models above) or does that amount of moisture usually make it trans-continental without issues?

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23 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Are the models over doing precipitation because of this (I saw 30”+ of snow in northern Michigan from both models above) or does that amount of moisture usually make it trans-continental without issues?

The last one (Euro) is snow depth and there's still going to be snow on the ground then so ignore the Michigan area.

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Can't wait for the cold front behind this system to return our area to the miserable 40s and breezy that we've had for over a month. Will there ever be an appreciable severe event this season? Or are we gonna have to wait for June like 2014.

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12z ECMWF actually came very close to that GGEM solution from a few runs back.

Secondary system develops further east, with a swath of 3ft of snow across portions of IA to WI.


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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

There is a large zone of ice accumulations almost to Ohio as well in Michigan....

Yeah, Euro has been advertising significant ice but I think this is the farthest south it has gotten the ice.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, Euro has been advertising significant ice but I think this is the farthest south it has gotten the ice.

Yeah it has been 4 runs in a row of showing significant ice too. So there is a bit of consistency there.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah it has been 4 runs in a row of showing significant ice too. So there is a bit of consistency there.

Other than the calendar saying mid April, it is a pretty classic synoptic setup for ice with that strong high to the north. Obviously it's going to be more difficult to impact the paved surfaces at this time of year so the bigger concern would be on elevated objects, but still, will be interesting to see if a band of sig ice occurs.

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All models indicating an early occlusion which might inhibit low level warming further east, as the best WAA gets shunted with the triple point. Too bad this isn't Jan or Feb or it could have been a major ZR threat. EURO indicating front-end snow as far south as here, which is probably too aggressive.

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3 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Can't wait for the cold front behind this system to return our area to the miserable 40s and breezy that we've had for over a month. Will there ever be an appreciable severe event this season? Or are we gonna have to wait for June like 2014.

I'll be gone for a week in Hawaii in mid May, so you can count on something major in the MW around that time lol.

Wow @ this morning's Euro.  Daddylonglegs = buried.

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

All models indicating an early occlusion which might inhibit low level warming further east, as the best WAA gets shunted with the triple point. Too bad this isn't Jan or Feb or it could have been a major ZR threat. EURO indicating front-end snow as far south as here, which is probably too aggressive.

It's looking like Saturday and Sunday could get ugly around here.

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7 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

It's looking like Saturday and Sunday could get ugly around here.

Think the bulk of this sets up well to our N/E. Could get a bit of glazing late Saturday night but doubt it's an ice-storm.

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Quite a sleet/freezing rain transition zone on the 12z Euro verbatim.  Don't have soundings but classic cold air drainage at/just above the surface.  By Sunday morning, the area near I-80 in IL/IN has 850 mb temps several degrees above 0C with 925 mb temps a few degrees below 0C.  Harder to find info on past ice/sleet storms but off the top of my head, I can't remember something as late in the season and as far south as what the 12z Euro had.  

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Locally this is reminding me of April 3rd 2003 when a few days before the forecast was for 70s only to end up with an extended ZR and sleet event. Seeing the latest gfs shift the ice threat further south towards a euro solution makes me only think of that more

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Quite a sleet/freezing rain transition zone on the 12z Euro verbatim.  Don't have soundings but classic cold air drainage at/just above the surface.  By Sunday morning, the area near I-80 in IL/IN has 850 mb temps several degrees above 0C with 925 mb temps a few degrees below 0C.  Harder to find info on past ice/sleet storms but off the top of my head, I can't remember something as late in the season and as far south as what the 12z Euro had.  

Check April 9-11th 1995.

Only sig April ice event in the CWA in recent times.


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21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Check April 9-11th 1995.

Only sig April ice event in the CWA in recent times.


.

I thought of that one but didn't mention it since it was technically a few days earlier.

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