BristowWx Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Close call but I think its snow. I’m west of that red dot. Close for sure. That was too much tick for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Did South Carolina lose their April snowstorm? Did Ji gain snow this run? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, SlamSlam said: Did South Carolina lose their April snowstorm? Did Ji gain snow this run? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Euro south...GFS north...5 days until game time...sounds somewhat familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Probably would like that H a few mb stronger or a bit more NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Probably would like that H a few mb stronger or a bit more NE Yes and that low in Maine to be closer to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Close call but I think its snow. Its probably rain unfortunately even if the entire column is below freezing IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 The GEFS should be interesting imo, I would expect an increase in hits based off the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 GFS now shows an Anafront, so the event type has changed. We had a warmfront moving into an arctic high yesterday.Not that it makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Its probably rain unfortunately even if the entire column is below freezing IMO I would think short of light rates that this would favor snow. Accumulating snow is another story though. Of course we are talking DC, so you know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: I would think short of light rates that this would favor snow. Accumulating snow is another story though. Of course we are talking DC, so you know how that goes. It looks like a rapid thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Extrapolating the 18z ICON... not bad. This is the type of event it has been handling relatively well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 2, 2018 Author Share Posted April 2, 2018 GEFS is an improvement. 2" into DCA. No southern max anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Money panel for the DC!!!! You don't want to be straddling the 0 850 line in March, let alone mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is an improvement. 2" into DCA. No southern max anymore. If you are rooting for snow in DC, you probably shouldn't be too thrilled with the 18z op or ens. I would root for members with southern solutions for several more runs. Highly doubt suppression will be the problem. After 12z I thought it would be "uncomfortably" back north in a run or 2. Its going to be April the eighth..not impossible for it to work out, just really tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Amped said: GFS now shows an Anafront, so the event type has changed. We had a warmfront moving into an arctic high yesterday.Not that it makes a huge difference. I liked what the GFS was showing yesterday. Anafont type deals ussually end up to amped and in,April I really don't see how this would work out.Yesterday the GFS had a system attacking the arttic high and giving a big front end thump. Meh We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If you are rooting for snow in DC, you probably shouldn't be too thrilled with the 18z op or ens. I would root for members with southern solutions for several more runs. Highly doubt suppression will be the problem. After 12z I thought it would be "uncomfortably" back north in a run or 2. Its going to be April the eighth..not impossible for it to work out, just really tough. GFS has been jumping around since this morning... Euro has been solid holding to our south and 12z UKMET was likely the high point. So long way to go as the models turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If you are rooting for snow in DC, you probably shouldn't be too thrilled with the 18z op or ens. I would root for members with southern solutions for several more runs. Highly doubt suppression will be the problem. After 12z I thought it would be "uncomfortably" back north in a run or 2. Its going to be April the eighth..not impossible for it to work out, just really tough. This is kinda crazy. Usually snow in April is a fluke that pops up short range not a long range track. And the gefs has some Day 8-10 hits and even a couple massive Day 10-15 hits mixed in as they bomb some storms as the pattern breaks down around the 15th. That's just insane though. One member gives a big snow the 15-16th. I've never seen ensembles consistently spit out high snowfall run after run after run even in late March let alone April. Just a freakish pattern and if we can get just one of these threats to hit something we will remember forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It's super rare territory for sure . I was mentioning yesterday that Philly pulled the hat trick in April 1841 with grand total of near 20" for the 3 storm total. Insane in the membrane. You know it’s rare when we have to go back to the 19th century. Who even knows if the records were accurate. I’m sure there were weenies back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Since we're waiting for the 0z models and have a bit of downtime can someone explain a bit more what makes this pattern so unique. The NAO is mostly neutral/positive for the next two weeks. The AO is quite negative... is that the main ingredient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, peribonca said: Since we're waiting for the 0z models and have a bit of downtime can someone explain a bit more what makes this pattern so unique. The NAO is mostly neutral/positive for the next two weeks. The AO is quite negative... is that the main ingredient? I did notice the whole pattern is blocked up. There is a strong low SE of GL holding a high below it with a low near the 50/50 location which, looking at 18z, moves east allowing the Saturday storm to come North. 6z had it further SW forcing the storm south. Move that low and it changes the equation. This doesn’t look like a CAD scenario with strong high in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, peribonca said: Since we're waiting for the 0z models and have a bit of downtime can someone explain a bit more what makes this pattern so unique. The NAO is mostly neutral/positive for the next two weeks. The AO is quite negative... is that the main ingredient? It's that Bering Sea block, no doubt in my mind. Of course it takes awhile for the piece over Canada to migrate but this is the catalyst for all that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: You know it’s rare when we have to go back to the 19th century. Who even knows if the records were accurate. I’m sure there were weenies back then. I bet those folks even had a JI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I bet those folks even had a JI. I’m laughing imagining weenies back then. ”Aye it was up to me knees, no doubt almost two foot-lengths at the edge of the thicket. Dirt paths had little in the way o’ depth, but on less-travelled walks there was something of the better part of a foot. A storm of this magnitude in April, despite the sun’s rays cast harshly upon the soil but a day ago, snow still was able to accumulate, and rather swiftly at that.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 These snow maps show the climo possibility but.. "omg a cold pattern can do this!" . Snow is rare. I've had 22" and the average is 30" and it's like?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: This is kinda crazy. Usually snow in April is a fluke that pops up short range not a long range track. And the gefs has some Day 8-10 hits and even a couple massive Day 10-15 hits mixed in as they bomb some storms as the pattern breaks down around the 15th. That's just insane though. One member gives a big snow the 15-16th. I've never seen ensembles consistently spit out high snowfall run after run after run even in late March let alone April. Just a freakish pattern and if we can get just one of these threats to hit something we will remember forever. it feels like we have had weenie runs most of the winter and nothing has panned out. Its just a winter where it does not want to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: These snow maps show the climo possibility but.. "omg a cold pattern can do this!" . Snow is rare. I've had 22" and the average is 30" and it's like?? You have a perfect record this season of making posts that are impossible for anyone on this planet to comprehend. So here’s to you insane poster dude...you are at the top of your game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You have a perfect record this season of making posts that are impossible for anyone on this planet to comprehend. So here’s to you insane poster dude...you are at the top of your game. We are good at wasting cold, or there is something more serious afoot. Both options suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: We are good at wasting cold, or there is something more serious afoot. Both options suck. And we salute you..trusty sidekick and perhaps a few hundred more universes below normal...together you put the W in WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And we salute you..trusty sidekick and perhaps a few hundred more universes below normal...together you put the W in WTF. Oh my lord I was laughing soooo much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 And we salute you..trusty sidekick and perhaps a few hundred more universes below normal...together you put the W in WTF. Real Men of Genius LOL. Classic!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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