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NorthArlington101

April Mid/Long Range & Disco

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

No doubt we have a lot of wild solutions on the op runs next couple days. 18z was near perfect for this time of year.  Had that 850 tracked to S KY it would have been a run for the ages.

it's been such a strong winter for the beaches that maybe it really will take until april to get ours

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The timing of this fantasy storm reminds me of my childhood and why I became a meteorologist:

Whenever anyone asks why I decided to become a meteorologist, I simply mention the April 8-10th blizzard of 1973; I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa. 

 

https://nws.weather.gov/blog/nwsdesmoines/2016/04/10/april-8-10-1973-iowa-blizzard/

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

By periodically do you mean every single run for the next 6 days?  Cmon you know it’s true.  

No....NOT this time, lol Probably will check here a couple times a day and if it still looks interesting by like Friday or so, perhaps model run watching...(but even then I will have my doubts because of both the month and just how many times this block has pulled the rug out...mercy.)

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25 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

The timing of this fantasy storm reminds me of my childhood and why I became a meteorologist:

Whenever anyone asks why I decided to become a meteorologist, I simply mention the April 8-10th blizzard of 1973; I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa. 

 

https://nws.weather.gov/blog/nwsdesmoines/2016/04/10/april-8-10-1973-iowa-blizzard/

Why don't you have a red-tag?

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No....NOT this time, lol Probably will check here a couple times a day and if it still looks interesting by like Friday or so, perhaps model run watching...(but even then I will have my doubts because of both the month and just how many times this block has pulled the rug out...mercy.)

Roger.  Will put you down as a maybe.  Lol.  I know I will wake up around 230 am and wander downstairs to check in.  Jeb will be up. He never sleeps.

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1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

The timing of this fantasy storm reminds me of my childhood and why I became a meteorologist:

Whenever anyone asks why I decided to become a meteorologist, I simply mention the April 8-10th blizzard of 1973; I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa. 

 

https://nws.weather.gov/blog/nwsdesmoines/2016/04/10/april-8-10-1973-iowa-blizzard/

mine was probably feb 87...except i ended up in IT.  still sometimes wonder if i messed that up lol.  if anything, i definitely fit the storm chaser personality.

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00z CMC not as good as 12z, but still decent for EZF and south to the VA/NC border... DCA gets 2 to 3.  Whole system shifted south

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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

The UKMMET seems to be in the suppressed camp.

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

No precip maps but looking at h5 that appears to be a decent hit.. esp for the southern 1/3 at the very least 

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2 hours ago, Amped said:

PV lingers back and the shortwave doesn't dig.  It's a double fail on this run.

Euro has the pv further south this run as well and squashes everything south..crushes North Carolina with up to a foot.

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps shifted se some from 12z but still a lot of decent hits and for day 6 this isn't a bad place to be .



 

Yes. Among the EPS members are some misses south, most of which are flat and weak. Plenty of hits up our way and a better run overall for I-95 and east, and also down towards Richmond. Have to wait and see if the suppressed/flat idea holds up- I have my doubts, but given the h5 look it is possible.

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Don't really have the time at this moment but quickly glancing at things @ 500 mb I have to wonder if the models may be moving towards a different solution on how they want to handle next weekends storm. Would not be surprised if over the coming days we see more amplification in the east with the trough where instead of dealing with the low sliding underneath us (W to E track) then OTS we instead see an intensifying low come up from the south running close to the benchmark in a more typical NEaster fashion. If this is the case we should begin to see the models trending at 500s to more pronounced troughing extending into the 50/50 region and ridging/higher heights starting to show up in front of the trough moving into the east. This setup and scenario was what the models were somewhat suggestive of in my mind just 5-7 days ago and I have to wonder if they may be moving back to it.

Ignoring the possible evolution I have suggested above and going with what the models have now I am not so sure I would dismiss a southern/suppressed solution for those who would at this time even though we are in April. I can quite easily see how this could end up a NC snowstorm. At this point I am fairly confident we do see a decent storm in the east and not some weak/washed out system that some of the models have on occasion suggested. About the only question in my mind at this point is where it will impact and at this time I think the odds are favorable for our region.

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