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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

For tamarack.   Euro as usual overdoing the idea but right in a macro sense.

06z gfs is pretty chilly at 2m late Sun into Mon, 0C at 85 and warmer farther up.  Verbatim it's .2-.3" ZR/IP before the warmup at the surface.  Seeing would be believing, and I don't expect to see that in mid April.

Yesterday's 33/18 brought the month average to -6.1.

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Man, look at the weather pattern for N Maine...they are completely locked into winter. They're prob gonna get hit with a good snowstorm early next week out of that system and in the meantime maybe a smaller snow event later this week and no real warmups at all. We may sneak a decent day or two down in SNE but it's deep winter up there north of the boundary. Prob excellent sled riding this weekend up there again.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, look at the weather pattern for N Maine...they are completely locked into winter. They're prob gonna get hit with a good snowstorm early next week out of that system and in the meantime maybe a smaller snow event later this week and no real warmups at all. We may sneak a decent day or two down in SNE but it's deep winter up there north of the boundary. Prob excellent sled riding this weekend up there again.

Still grooming and plenty of snow to be had, Still see 95N full of trucks and trailers heading up to the county.

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5 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

somehow last nights 0z Euro solution is even more absurd than the 12z run from yesterday .. would love to see it verify; pl/zr and U20s during the day Sunday imby. CMC is def closer to a Euro like solution and the GFS seems to be incrementally moving that way too. 

 

3k NAM should start really honing in tomorrow 

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28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS with a late backdoor N and E of ORH Fri PM with a little mesolow offshore Sat morning. BD down to Forky by Sun morning. Nice R/ZR storm for Sun like the euro. Oh boy oh boy oh boy.

And then tries to push the front back up to around your 'hood during the day on Saturday....lol. We know how that works. It would probably not move an inch or even go further SW.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And then tries to push the front back up to around your 'hood during the day on Saturday....lol. We know how that works. It would probably not move an inch or even go further SW.

Yeah...not happening without sun assistance in the cold sector to mix it out.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Notice the climo trend of adding pack first week in April, pretty cool

gendateplot.png

Yup the climo second spike.  Very consistent in the yearly data, timing varies but this time of year there's always settling/melting at some point in March but usually another round of winter.  

I've always thought western mountains probably have similar climo... there's always that second push late spring after it starts melting.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yup the climo second spike.  Very consistent in the yearly data, timing varies but this time of year there's always settling/melting at some point in March but usually another round of winter.  

I've always thought western mountains probably have similar climo... there's always that second push late spring after it starts melting.

winter doesn't give up easy at elevation

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yup the climo second spike.  Very consistent in the yearly data, timing varies but this time of year there's always settling/melting at some point in March but usually another round of winter.  

I've always thought western mountains probably have similar climo... there's always that second push late spring after it starts melting.

The high ratio drier snow settles during the first real thaw period in March and then you get your late snow on top of the 4 to 1 glacier.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The high ratio drier snow settles during the first real thaw period in March and then you get your late snow on top of the 4 to 1 glacier.

Yeah you go from a winter snowpack to a spring one.... it is rock hard right now, gone are the days of taking off your skis and sinking to your waist.  It goes to the "walk on it" stage haha.  Just walking around 5-7 feet above the forest floor.

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