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Rjay

March 20th-22nd Suppressed, Fish, Not Coming Threat

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It's laughable the thermal profile differences between the NAM and GFS at this range... doesn't make a difference City westward, but from the Nassau/Suffolk border eastward it starts to matter more and more each mile

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1 minute ago, ZeeTwentyFour said:

Why am I still worried about the south shore of the nassau county not panning out.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk
 

I think Nassau is fine temp wise.  I think it’s possible though that the best snows set up just to their west however

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3 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

It's laughable the thermal profile differences between the NAM and GFS at this range... doesn't make a difference City westward, but from the Nassau/Suffolk border eastward it starts to matter more and more each mile

And possibly from the Queens/Nassau border. Some of the larger vendors have lowered their snowfall outlooks in Nassau.

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For the love of god someone please post the nws official forecast map that was just put out 10 mins ago everyone please just look at that take a deep breath get off the computer for 10 mins and come back. This is their official forecast after watching the same oz runs we have all just watched I can’t pist in my mobile but it’s 12-16” for virtually the entire nyc metro. I’m sorry rant over 

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9 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

For the love of god someone please post the nws official forecast map that was just put out 10 mins ago everyone please just look at that take a deep breath get off the computer for 10 mins and come back. This is their official forecast after watching the same oz runs we have all just watched I can’t pist in my mobile but it’s 12-16” for virtually the entire nyc metro. I’m sorry rant over 

I don't think the doubters will find much solace in that, given some of the recent experiences. I think its probably time to let things roll and see what happens. 

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13 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

For the love of god someone please post the nws official forecast map that was just put out 10 mins ago everyone please just look at that take a deep breath get off the computer for 10 mins and come back. This is their official forecast after watching the same oz runs we have all just watched I can’t pist in my mobile but it’s 12-16” for virtually the entire nyc metro. I’m sorry rant over 

I give up rjay or someone else please pist the ncep rdfd THAT WAS ISSUED AT 3z 

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I do think it will snow heavily most places tomorrow. I simply don't buy into 6-12 in. amounts. For example...Newark is not going to see 14 in. 4-6 in.? Sure.

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10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

0z HRDPS looks pretty good for most. Deform band over LI as it pulls away. 10"+ for most at 10:1.

I told my buddies at work that my prediction is 10 for the immediate metro area. It’s the middle ground between the weenies (and NWS in this case) and the debbie D’s. Will stick to it.

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1 hour ago, Enigma said:

1/2 inch per hour rates tomorrow will not get it done in the city.

intense rates would definitely help but even if the rates are 1/2 inch per hour if it is cold = it will stick anywhere. We will soon know either way

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3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I told my buddies at work that my prediction is 10 for the immediate metro area. It’s the middle ground between the weenies (and NWS in this case) and the debbie D’s. Will stick to it.

10 might be the lucky number. I have no idea myself. We will see how it all works out though.

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42 minutes ago, Enigma said:

I do think it will snow heavily most places tomorrow. I simply don't buy into 6-12 in. amounts. For example...Newark is not going to see 14 in. 4-6 in.? Sure.

Agreed

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6 minutes ago, snywx said:

Drier than 12z. 

Is it drier for everyone or drier for the interior?  Because there seems to be some confusion when that stuff gets posted.

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6 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Is it drier for everyone or drier for the interior?  Because there seems to be some confusion when that stuff gets posted.

Drier for everyone. Precip amounts are still decent for the coast, LE 1"+ in and around NYC.

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