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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Re: 6z RGEM... 

you guys did see that the SLP is actually more northwest tucked in than 6z NAM, but the precip shield is uber tight... not sure I buy that, especially with mid level processes further out... RGEM does have weird dry burp runs (? feels more often in 6z/18z runs)

 

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, wxsniss said:

Re: 6z RGEM... 

you guys did see that the SLP is actually more northwest tucked in than 6z NAM, but the precip shield is uber tight... not sure I buy that, especially with mid level processes further out... RGEM does have weird dry burp runs (? feels more often in 6z/18z runs)

 

Yup, exactly what I thought. Models probably chasing convection east like every other storm this year?

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Walking a fine line between good and great per GYX. 

The snowfall forecast is definitely not a final answer, but more 
the most likely outcome based on the current guidance available. 
Definitely expect to have to make some shifts to account for 
track variation, andmesoscale banding.

One question still definitely not resolved is whether banding
features with extreme snowfall rates will remain off shore or
pivot into coastal Maine and New Hampshire. At this point
there`s no clear answer to the question. Will have to wait for
the storm to take better shape and give mesocale models a better
chance to resolve these features.
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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, CCHurricane said:

Feel free to share your thoughts on the attached map from both a meteorological perspective and design/appearance.

I'd expect amounts once you get to NH to be a bit higher tbh, haven't come up with a clean way to represent it on the map just yet.

neoutline.jpg

To low

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Pit2 or bust.    The maps give me a range of 7-23".  The 'most likely' has me at 16" --and about the entire GYX CWA between 13-17".  

Tonight

Cloudy. Snow after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent.
Tuesday
Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, becoming northwest around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Same here, Love the additional hvy accumulation part after you already have 8-12" on the ground.

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Re: 6z RGEM... 

you guys did see that the SLP is actually more northwest tucked in than 6z NAM, but the precip shield is uber tight... not sure I buy that, especially with mid level processes further out... RGEM does have weird dry burp runs (? feels more often in 6z/18z runs)

 

Terrible model this winter, Don't know what has happened to it.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It make sense, it's saying this is the least likely scenario.

Chris has told us a few times that they have no control over those maps, they are based on WPC as compared to the local office forecasts or something. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Chris has told us a few times that they have no control over those maps, they are based on WPC as compared to the local office forecasts or something. 

They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.

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JBinStoughton

JBinStoughton

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They are useless to the real world. People want to know what will happen, not what has a 10% chance of happening.

Well it does give a sense of variability I suppose.  In this case it seems the variability is skewed toward the lower end? They’re betting the most likely outcome is toward higher amounts 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

It doesn't make sense (not picking on ya).

Only scenario E MA sees that little, Cape would be destroyed. It suggests Cape mixes.

That's just a pile of crap. But I don't think BOX is really all that concerned about that map. Looks model generated.

It’s a combination of all guidance (some

good, some bad). So it incorporates all whiffs, amped runs that rain on the Cape. So one way to look at it is this is showing is the highest confidence for significant amounts of snow is that 6” area. Basically that’s their high floor.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It’s a combination of all guidance (some

good, some bad). So it incorporates all whiffs, amped runs that rain on the Cape. So one way to look at it is this is showing is the highest confidence for significant amounts of snow is that 6” area. Basically that’s their high floor.

It's computer generated from wpc ensembles? I thought I read that somewhere

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

WPC on board as of 5am for 12-18 across much of New England and 18+ for our easterly friends. 

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD. THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT NEW ENGLAND
IS EXPECTED TO BEAR THE FULL BRUNT OF THE DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PEAKING ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS POWERFUL STORM WILL CREATE TREACHEROUS OUTDOOR CONDITIONS
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. SNOWFALL OF A FOOT OR GREATER IS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER 18
INCHES FROM EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO MAINE. PEOPLE IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WINTER STORM.
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

To low

Same here, Love the additional hvy accumulation part after you already have 8-12" on the ground.

Terrible model this winter, Don't know what has happened to it.

Reggie has been terrible all winter. You can lump it in with the gfs. It’s been unusable, yet you see a lot of folks giving it weight. It’s been terrible on tracks, on amounts, and temp profiles 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Reggie has been terrible all winter. You can lump it in with the gfs. It’s been unusable, yet you see a lot of folks giving it weight. It’s been terrible on tracks, on amounts, and temp profiles 

Yeah, Something happened to it, Its been way off, At least you can weigh in the GFS with the other guidance once yo ignore its thermal profile.

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