March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks better than the op through he 42. More Consolidated. 

[#NoPoles]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a wild science fiction plot ...

Supposin' the time-change f'ed up that run. Their model does this 4-D correction scheming, which is intrinsically containing some sort of time consideration ... 'what if' their ingest got weird because we sent them our data at a time they forget/or erred in correcting their grids for - ...

Like NASA when they did their calculations in English instead of metric and blew up a space craft? Or was that when they screwed up HUbble?

[Damage In Tolland]

Burp run

Game on silly suckas dumb cluckas mutha fukkas

[CoastalWx]

It’s defjntely east of 00z but wetter than op.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Like NASA when they did their calculations in English instead of metric and blew up a space craft? Or was that when they screwed up HUbble?

I think it was a Mars lander. 

[Connecticut Appleman]

Looks to me that there are a significant number of sub 980 lows west of the EPS mean.

[centralmass]

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s defjntely east of 00z but wetter than op.

Usually follows the op... One will cave

[dryslot]

46 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks like 5-19 for me.  Not a slam dunk decision to head up based on EC.

12z was not much different from 0z up here really.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man what a ridiculous EURO run... over 1.5" QPF in the mountains up here by Thursday night/early Friday morning.

Euro had 0.3-0.4 QPF last night and we got about an inch with 13" of snow over the past 24 hours on the big hill.

I can't imagine what that signal would bring to the mountains up here... thinking we measure feet by Friday.  Just a crush job.

Not now pf not fn now lol

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Like NASA when they did their calculations in English instead of metric and blew up a space craft? Or was that when they screwed up HUbble?

There's gaffes like that out there, yeah...  Not sure if something got screwed up here; frankly, I suspect it has a lot to do with the bias/error tendencies pointed out by the WPC's diagnostic teams in their mid day discussion. This smacks pretty hard as that bias playing out ...evidenced by the fact already that the EPS is arriving substantially suggestive the operational is too far out..

It was purported back in the day... how one of the Voyagers from the 1970's had a semi-colon instead of a comma embedded errantly in some 10,000 lines of software code. It wasn't determined until the space craft was somewhere out beyond Jupiter, but luckily ...it was a non-essential system.  Stranger crap has happened...

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z was not much different from 0z up here really.

So still make the trip?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not now pf not fn now lol

You broke the streak...we were seeing how many consecutive posts PF could make on this threat about upslope without getting a response. 

[CTWeatherFreak]

Whoa, this wasnt expected back here, at least by me. Despite Euro's best efforts to say otherwise, WSW just went up for a good chunk of the area.

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I think it was a Mars lander. 

Lol.  I was thinking of that whenTip posted that.

[ineedsnow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-020>023-RIZ005>008-120315-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, Springfield, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 to 12
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, western, central,
  eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, as well as all of Rhode
  Island.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t think the eps are much better than the OP. Doesn’t really help us out one way or another.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, centralmass said:

More interested to see track Angle or hour 54of eps. They look a good 40-50 Miles south of last cycle

[CTWeatherFreak]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-020>023-RIZ005>008-120315-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, Springfield, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 to 12
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, western, central,
  eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, as well as all of Rhode
  Island.

Yea I was kind of shocked to see that, especially after the latest Euro run.. I guess that shows how much credence its not getting.

[Hoth]

Well, I've certainly been fooled before, but using my proprietary in-house, hi-res, fine mesh modeling system--aka squinting at Euro charts and water vapor loops--I think the Euro is OTL with the northern stream. On wv it looks west of the Euro depiction to me, and that block also looks to put up a pretty good fight. I think this drops in on a more north/south trajectory, but of course these could well just be weenie musings.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-020>023-RIZ005>008-120315-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, Springfield, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 to 12
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, western, central,
  eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, as well as all of Rhode
  Island.

Yet they don't include Boston and Providence

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think the eps are much better than the OP. Doesn’t really help us out one way or another.

 

It is verbatim. A little more organized and west. Also good banding potential. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Yea I was kind of shocked to see that, especially after the latest Euro run.. I guess that shows how much credence its not getting.

They likely did not see it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yo u broke the streak...we were seeing how many con secutive posts PF could make on this threat vcuraynpe without getting a response.  a

I should have known bc powder freak is the reverse nam w.r.t. accums.

Him calling for feet is several red flags of being obvious to incite a response ugh.

He would usually say "maybe over doing the Uplsope Response a Tad, ill start w 6-12 on the bjg hill, i love when i low ball it and still believe myself"

I love his knowledge , seriously

but i do Wish someone would do an experiment and double his forecast totals in small events and add 2/3's in large events and watch the acumulation Accuracy go Up

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

So still make the trip?

Of course.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Well, I've certainly been fooled before, but using my proprietary in-house, hi-res, fine mesh modeling system--aka squinting at Euro charts and water vapor loops--I think the Euro is OTL with the northern stream. On wv it looks west of the Euro depiction to me, and that block also looks to put up a pretty good fight. I think this drops in on a more north/south trajectory, but of course these could well just be weenie musings.

Wpc is favoring a cmc/nam/GFS blend over the euro/ukmet camp for 12z. Concerned about the latters' treatment of the northern stream. But more importantly, hammered low confidence.

[CTWeatherFreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

They likely did not see it.

Thats what I was afraid of; Id much rather believe they saw, and tossed.

[centralmass]

15z SREFs still monsters

[weathafella]

Cal it 6-12+.  Even euro supports that for eastern areas.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw -

the new model diagnostic update this hour:

"...19z update: The 12z ECMWF has trended flatter though a bit faster with the northern stream shortwave this leads to a bit greater phasing of the trod to the southern stream in timing but being flatter is much less amplified. This is equally supported by the 12z UKMET which are slower and then shift further east with the southern stream system tugging the surface wave east of the GFS/NAM track. The 12z CMC on the other hand trended a bit faster and like the GFS/NAM there is stronger negative tilt as such will favor a GFS/NAM and CMC blend. These run to run variability especially in the small scale will keep confidence slightly below average...."

That's basically an omission that they don't what to do with this Euro input ...   Also, I the UKMet does not appear to me to be that way for the same reason, but more so the two end up in a position that is similar ...if perhaps per slightly variant causes...