March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No

 

That run Wasnt Done at 7pm Tues For some areas but a S.L.P seemed disjointed

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z GEFS look sweet.  Looks in line with OP run.

Another 25-50 mile west would bring tears of joy to many.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gefs been pretty steady for a bit.

1" by river 1.5 e mass just away from ocean/ s nh

more s shore se mass cape 

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That run Wasnt Done at 7pm Tues

Well it is what it is.

[78Blizzard]

Barry Burbank's preliminary prediction from an hour ago.  A more refined profile will be released with the arrival of updated guidance as the day progresses.

[codfishsnowman]

53 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I thought in the 16 Acres area of Springfield by I may be off.

s forest park...half mile from longmeadow line/mile from east longmeadow line.....3 mi north of border

[WintersComing]

Take em up up up and away..everywhere

Thinkin 6-12 for CT higher towards 12 as you go east. Although somewhere in CT might see that deform band. That will probably set up right over my head


.

[codfishsnowman]

I wonder if during snowy periods back in the 1600s-1800s and before if things were so eastern new england based, i bet they were

I don't want to be less than 50 miles from big snows, it can jog well east if that's the case

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... the Euro should be rollin' on in here soon.  Hopefully shed some confidence light on matters. 

That 03 KM NAM that folks seem to have a lot of fun with, it actually came signficantly east of the previous cycles. The system it is managing, however, is so ginormous it doesn't seem to really change the QPF layout; in part that may also be that the system it contains is also stronger on this cycle...  965 range as opposed 973 .. etc.  Also, the center jumping may be related to convective distribution out there at sea - I don't have a lot of experience with this model but I can assure folks, lows that deep don't jump around by some 100 naut miles every 2 hours... So, mmm... I can already see one reason why this sort of tool is probably more for amusement and/or the imagination in general ... at least as far as its handling on THIS event.

Now that the after glow of the 12z meso's is passe... the Euro may tick some NW and help expand the upper ranged concerns to perhaps the ORH Hills up through more of NH/eastern ME. One thing I have noticed over the past two days... whenever the meso's went back west, the Euro's ensuing run came in more aggressive.  Not sure why that is...but that pattern of behavior suggests this run has a fair chance at doing the same based upon that pattern alone.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Btv wrf juiced up amounts

Actually matches gefs quite nicely w 1.50 N-S from MHT to E. PVD

Seems nice 12-18" for S NH s to ORH to E R.I w lolli's to 2' se mass and part of cape

[dryslot]

Southern stream s/w on the 12z Euro looks pretty amped.

[78Blizzard]

Burbank also said:

"While surface temperatures may stick around 31-34 degrees during the storm, the atmosphere is colder this time around. Thus, the snow should be less dense & that lighter-weighted snow should not produce as much tree damage & power outages."

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Interesting box discussion hammering 850-700 frontogenesis from connection to n stream which could create heavy snow totals despite what they say is a track too far se to be climatologically favorable for heavies 

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks like a mess. 

[ORH_wxman]

Oh boy. Here we go....gonna be some bridge jumpers this run. 

[CoastalWx]

Yikes. Weenies will not be happy. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks like a mess. 

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh boy. Here we go....gonna be some bridge jumpers this run. 

R u jumping (from a very big event)

Will euro not show the Ukie like qpf w track to Newfundland

[dryslot]

Man is it slow this run

[Hoth]

Ug-ly.

[wxsniss]

The much stronger southern vort max is too dominant, inhibiting the "subsume" process Tip was discussing... the whole system will be a discombobulated mess more southeast this time

[dendrite]

“Euro isn’t what it used to be”

”what did they do to that model?”

[CoastalWx]

Decent hit eastern areas but far from other guidance. Srn vort swings way ahead. 

[Damage In Tolland]

And yet there will be a bunch on here that will believe it

[78Blizzard]

I thought the king didn't have big changes like this from the previous run.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

euro says peel back those big totals. Woof... that’s a lot different than other guidance 

[Weenie]

If I was a weather forecaster I'd be going stir crazy over all these models... They may never really have a handle on it until the 11th hour

[Hoth]

Shall the King abdicate one week after regaining its throne?

[Bostonseminole]

I still trust the euro more than others but this is not a slam dunk like last storm


.

[dendrite]

Wait for the EPS before taking your final selfie from the Tobin.

[ORH_wxman]

Could be right. Still a big event for eastern areas but not the 1-2 foot amounts (maybe approaching a foot far SE areas)