March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

a few things

didnt every model move east this afternoon? regardless of a better precip field or inv trough or any of the such, wasn't there some kind of escape east?

make fun of the euro all you want but it could be onto something

How many models have run this afternoon? The NAM was a big hit.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

a few things
didnt every model move east this afternoon? regardless of a better precip field or inv trough or any of the such, wasn't there some kind of escape east?
make fun of the euro all you want but it could be onto something

Just the Euro and Ukmet models went east, every other model corrected westward

[dryslot]

That was one sick Nam run right there.

[Chrisrotary12]

Have to love the continuity between the BOX & GYX snow maps.  Nashua - 8".  Next town in MA - 13-14"

[Ginx snewx]

Just to throw it out there Bufkit was crazy 25 to 30 inch amounts PVD ORH BOS corridor on the 12Z NAM run, lol imagine what this one will be

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

He loves spring storms.  Blue bombs...reminiscing about laying on the Bougouis Beach while parachutes fall near Fox Hall...

I’m expecting the next Euro to split the difference between its last two runs...

We’ve seen this play before...but the NAM solution has me salivating

 

sorry ...been hoggin' the floor perhaps... But it's not just spring storms. I like fantastic events, period...

What's interesting about spring snow though, is that the larger diabatic heating in the atmosphere assists in evaporation and putting huge water content into snow deliveries... And, some may argue that while there is a better frequency of dangerous storms in say, Jan 20 to Feb 15 ...the very best candidates tend to come now ... albeit, far less frequently.

 

[codfishsnowman]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How many models have run this afternoon? The NAM was a big hit.

no, you guys said at 12z there was an unexpected jump east that surprised you like at hrs 45-50 or something...

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

no, you guys said at 12z there was an unexpected jump east that surprised you like at hrs 45-50 or something...

12z equal 8 am 18 Z equal 2pm afternoon

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

no, you guys said at 12z there was an unexpected jump east that surprised you like at hrs 45-50 or something...

Stop pissing in the Cheerios.

[Roger Smith]

Wow, that's some bomb in exactly the right place ...

20-25" potential for coastal to 100 miles inland from this. 

[ineedsnow]

18z nam was a monster wow

[Connecticut Appleman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

sorry ...been huggin' the floor perhaps... But it's not just spring storms. I like fantastic events, period...

What's interesting about spring snow though, is that the larger diabatic heating in the atmosphere assists in evaporation and putting huge water content into snow deliveries... And, some may argue that while there is a better frequency of dangerous storms in say, Jan 20 to Feb 15 ...the very best candidates tend to come now ... albeit, far less frequently.

 

No apologies necessary. I'm enjoying your enthusiasm and learning a lot along the way.

[Damage In Tolland]

1-2’ for all

[jbenedet]

This looks like a ~100 - 200 mile east and more amped version of Thursday's storm. Trough interaction with the cut-off lows early on at H5 and kick east look similar. And I think we will have another weenie band out west when this gets captured at H5. The H5 cut-off low hanging back west shows another long duration event for NNE.

The snowfall amounts could be broadly MECS level if this is the case with this bc BL temps will support much better ratios and better accums throughout; especially into Wednesday as the storm weakens but light to moderate snows persist throughout NNE. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Sipprell gone wild .. SGW

Highlights...

 - Potent snow storm, potential blizzard Monday night into Tuesday

 - Moderate to heavy snow, some locations seeing upwards of a
   foot perhaps two feet, 1-3"/hr snowfall rates, plus winds
   could yield blizzard conditions with visibility less than a
   quarter of a mile

 - Around southeast MA a pastier, sticking snow, plus winds,
   tree damage and power outage potential

 - Strong to damaging winds, E gusts up around 60 mph possible
   for E/SE MA coast, brunt of the winds around Tuesday morning

 - Impacts to the Tuesday AM commute with difficult, near-
   impossible travel.

 - Especially the Tuesday morning high tide, strong E onshore
   flow yielding around a 2 to 3 foot surge, splashover, minor
   coastal flood issues, especially ocean-facing shores,
   vulnerable areas impacted by earlier storm systems

*/ Overview...

Potent snow storm forecast, potential blizzard. Rex block held firm
over SE Canada, stout H5 ridge in advance, yields slowed progression
upstream. Opportunity for S-stream to cyclonically pivot round the
diving Central N America PV-stream along the 310K isentropic surface
initially rather than phase. Last several model runs, N-stream cold
punch has evolved further W (H85-5 thermal fields), potency of the S-
stream ramped up, aforementioned PV-stream connection delayed until
further downstream over SE Canada, energy wrapping in, phasing later
in time. But how far out is the S-stream steering with respect to
our coast?

For now, looking like a good punch for E/SE-coastal MA, near-classic
Cape Cod type storm with 40N / 70W benchmark passage. N-stream
entrenching as the S-stream gets pulled back. Clipping New England
with significant outcomes, streams pulling together over SE Canada
yielding a slower moving, bigger storm.

So what`s in store for S New England? As mentioned, sharpness and
potency of S-stream noted in last several model runs. Inflow along
the cyclonic warm conveyor belt pronounced beneath cyclonic pivoting
of energy. Beneath broader diffluence, ramped-up cyclogenesis, the
surface low with pressure falls 3-4 mb/hr dropping to as low as 970
mb near the 40N / 70W benchmark SE of Nantucket, isallobaric wind
response, conveyor belt motions amplified (H925-85 E wind profile 60
to 75 mph across E MA, +3-4 standard deviations), do expect thermal
packing along with strong lift / forcing brought about by trowaling
moisture (precipitable waters 0.50 to 1.00 inch, +1 to 2 standard
deviations) up against the cold conveyor belt. Resultant fronto-
genesis along 285-305K isentropic surfaces back into S New England.

Subsequent SW-NE snow-banding signatures initially, orienting N-S
with time all the way back as far as the Berkshires. Strong omega
through the column, upwards 50 microbars per second especially over
SE New England. Pouring snow for some locations, 1-3"/hr snowfall
rates. Parent S-stream cold conveyor belt chilly enough, colder air
brought down from aloft via intense precip, altering snow ratios.
Potential instability noted, especially along E/SE- coastal MA,
can`t rule out thundersnow given such along with deep cyclogenesis,
collocation of some measure of -EPV parent with low to mid level
frontogenesis (some slantwise if not upright instability H5-H7).
Add in the winds, and the potential exists for blizzard conditions
as CIPS analog probabilities suggest.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sipprell gone wild .. SGW

Highlights...

 - Potent snow storm, potential blizzard Monday night into Tuesday

 - Moderate to heavy snow, some locations seeing upwards of a
   foot perhaps two feet, 1-3"/hr snowfall rates, plus winds
   could yield blizzard conditions with visibility less than a
   quarter of a mile

 - Around southeast MA a pastier, sticking snow, plus winds,
   tree damage and power outage potential

 - Strong to damaging winds, E gusts up around 60 mph possible
   for E/SE MA coast, brunt of the winds around Tuesday morning

 - Impacts to the Tuesday AM commute with difficult, near-
   impossible travel.

 - Especially the Tuesday morning high tide, strong E onshore
   flow yielding around a 2 to 3 foot surge, splashover, minor
   coastal flood issues, especially ocean-facing shores,
   vulnerable areas impacted by earlier storm systems

*/ Overview...

Potent snow storm forecast, potential blizzard. Rex block held firm
over SE Canada, stout H5 ridge in advance, yields slowed progression
upstream. Opportunity for S-stream to cyclonically pivot round the
diving Central N America PV-stream along the 310K isentropic surface
initially rather than phase. Last several model runs, N-stream cold
punch has evolved further W (H85-5 thermal fields), potency of the S-
stream ramped up, aforementioned PV-stream connection delayed until
further downstream over SE Canada, energy wrapping in, phasing later
in time. But how far out is the S-stream steering with respect to
our coast?

For now, looking like a good punch for E/SE-coastal MA, near-classic
Cape Cod type storm with 40N / 70W benchmark passage. N-stream
entrenching as the S-stream gets pulled back. Clipping New England
with significant outcomes, streams pulling together over SE Canada
yielding a slower moving, bigger storm.

So what`s in store for S New England? As mentioned, sharpness and
potency of S-stream noted in last several model runs. Inflow along
the cyclonic warm conveyor belt pronounced beneath cyclonic pivoting
of energy. Beneath broader diffluence, ramped-up cyclogenesis, the
surface low with pressure falls 3-4 mb/hr dropping to as low as 970
mb near the 40N / 70W benchmark SE of Nantucket, isallobaric wind
response, conveyor belt motions amplified (H925-85 E wind profile 60
to 75 mph across E MA, +3-4 standard deviations), do expect thermal
packing along with strong lift / forcing brought about by trowaling
moisture (precipitable waters 0.50 to 1.00 inch, +1 to 2 standard
deviations) up against the cold conveyor belt. Resultant fronto-
genesis along 285-305K isentropic surfaces back into S New England.

Subsequent SW-NE snow-banding signatures initially, orienting N-S
with time all the way back as far as the Berkshires. Strong omega
through the column, upwards 50 microbars per second especially over
SE New England. Pouring snow for some locations, 1-3"/hr snowfall
rates. Parent S-stream cold conveyor belt chilly enough, colder air
brought down from aloft via intense precip, altering snow ratios.
Potential instability noted, especially along E/SE- coastal MA,
can`t rule out thundersnow given such along with deep cyclogenesis,
collocation of some measure of -EPV parent with low to mid level
frontogenesis (some slantwise if not upright instability H5-H7).
Add in the winds, and the potential exists for blizzard conditions
as CIPS analog probabilities suggest.

Too bad you always dismiss him.

[ORH_wxman]

18z rgem is significantly east of previous runs. 

This is still a very big hit for eastern areas but it is a notch down from historic and it makes central and western areas less impact. 

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z rgem is significantly east of previous runs. 

This is still a very big hit for eastern areas but it is a notch down from historic and it makes central and western areas less impact. 

How much for us?

[HullMA]

NAM is just insane round these parts. Somewhere in coastal MA will verify blizzard if that verifies

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

How much for us?

Well it's still going at 48 hours so need to wait for the clown rgem maps on meteocentre but through 48 it looks like just shy of an inch qpf for BOS. It's classic though as they are near the qpf gradient so eastern MA would prob be under the awesome ML deformation band. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Did Siprell write that with pants on or off?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z rgem is significantly east of previous runs. 

This is still a very big hit for eastern areas but it is a notch down from historic and it makes central and western areas less impact. 

Pretty decent jog east at this lead.

im curious to see what the gfs does. Wonder if these models (minus the NAM) trend towards the more east euro. 

Doesn’t mean the impact won’t still be major in Eastern NE... but you wonder.

[moneypitmike]

Model wars.  We'll see what GYX does with these after seeing the EC, and the 18z NAM and RGEM. 

They seem less interested in wind than BOX.

 

 

[jbenedet]

I think this is another case where the compromise is the euro is too far east early on but has best handle on the east kick later on.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty decent jog east at this lead.

im curious to see what the gfs does. Wonder if these models (minus the NAM) trend towards the more east euro. 

Doesn’t mean the impact won’t still be major in Eastern NE... but you wonder.

I would bet that most of these ridiculous solutions like the 18z NAM and some of those prior rgem runs and any other meso that was bringing 25" inside of 495 do not end up verifying. I'd guess the trend is toward the euro while at the same time the euro does move west a little bit. Prob the classic 70/30 compromise. I do think a chunk of E MA and RI could be in the monster ML fronto deformation band though...so a stripe of huge totals in that band is not out of the question. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well it's still going at 48 hours so need to wait for the clown rgem maps on meteocentre but through 48 it looks like just shy of an inch qpf for BOS. It's classic though as they are near the qpf gradient so eastern MA would prob be under the awesome ML deformation band. 

And the mid level band out west

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well it's still going at 48 hours so need to wait for the clown rgem maps on meteocentre but through 48 it looks like just shy of an inch qpf for BOS. It's classic though as they are near the qpf gradient so eastern MA would prob be under the awesome ML deformation band. 

That’s a beast-967 with that h7 look should  get us pretty good!

[moneypitmike]

Of course, GYX also has this one. 

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would bet that most of these ridiculous solutions like the 18z NAM and some of those prior rgem runs and any other meso that was bringing 25" inside of 495 do not end up verifying. I'd guess the trend is toward the euro while at the same time the euro does move west a little bit. Prob the classic 70/30 compromise. I do think a chunk of E MA and RI could be in the monster ML fronto deformation band though...so a stripe of huge totals in that band is not out of the question. 

Man cant recall a storm with a ML Deform band set up Ssw-nne over E SNE (should that occur)

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Man cant recall a storm with a ML fronto band set up Ssw-nne over E SNE (should that occur)

Jan 2015 was close. I guess that was technically more central SNE...as the mega bands went from like westford/Littleton through ORH/Shrewsbury/Northborough and then curled down to ginxy. 

Dec 29, 1976 had a band that did what you describe...destroyed from rays area down to PVD and most of RI with 16-20".