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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wiz, that frontogenesis band will give someone feet of snow, once it pivots in it stalls right along the I95 corridor and someone from PVD to BOS and southeast will see totals near 40"

You have lost your mind.  Never in my life have I seen a poster talk SO CONFIDENTLY on and on again and again about 40".  Not even in the Biggest Daddy's of this century in 2005, 2013, 2015.  

 

And this storm AIN'T Those.  

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

The fgen band already overperforming as it is, if the elevated isothermal layer can cool just like a degree more, someone in SE MA is guaranteed 30" with prolonged 3-4/hr rates. Other guarantee is someone just W of this mega-band, and east of some western edge banding, is getting screwed.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah... let's relish this. The season's big one incoming. And trending better the closer we get. This is it, the thrill that keeps us coming back.

Wish there was more we could nowcast... timing delay? Surface low location? Diving northern stream? Prolonged duration? I haven't found an obvious parameter to correlate with impact on the various model runs tonight, probably because the stream interaction later this morning is so complex. But regardless, the unambiguous net result in the model output is getting better and better. 

Gonna force myself to recharge a few hours to enjoy the fireworks. Get some rest folks, gonna be a wild day tomorrow.

We bump up

ecmwf_acc_precip_neng_78.png

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You have lost your mind.  Never in my life have I seen a poster talk SO CONFIDENTLY on and on again and again about 40".  Not even in the Biggest Daddy's of this century in 2005, 2013, 2015.  

 

And this storm AIN'T Those.  

Could happen....lots of surprises 

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Greg said:

I'm actually talking about the Cape and Islands, not really us at all.  We will do well, I think.  Our ratios won't be huge but will make up some of the difference in the end.

I'm tired.... but agreed. Yeah I don't see James getting 40" but this is one for the books for him. Kids on the cape won't have school the rest of the week. One to remember.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, OKpowdah said:

The fgen band already overperforming as it is, if the elevated isothermal layer can cool just like a degree more, someone in SE MA is guaranteed 30" with prolonged 3-4/hr rates. Other guarantee is someone just W of this mega-band, and east of some western edge banding, is getting screwed.

I think the screw zone will be outside of I 495.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

40" is virtually impossible. 27" maybe jack, 18-24" over a widespread area of SE MA seems more in-line with QPF and ratio's.

I'm up...could attribute to being a full blown weenie living vicariously through the posts.
Doctor today sliced and diced my left foot the pain just throbbing so unable to sleep. Not nice getting old... LOL.

Storm is just exploding, nirvana for a morning in March. Long Live Winter!

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henry1978

henry1978

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Montauk pt and BID must be doing like 2"/hr now.

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Montauk pt and BID must be doing like 2"/hr now.

It's been raining for hours in these locations and along the south coast, although the rain has not been heavy.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Nice to wake up to a blizzard warning.

Today

Snow, mainly after 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
 
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
 
Wednesday
Snow before 11am, then rain and snow between 11am and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 38. West wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Storm delayed? My forcst called for 1-3" last night and we've only got high cirrus

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

No models were showing that for last night.  Yesterday's 12z and 18z runs were showing start times around 6-7 here at Pit2.  They've slowed a little bit--I don't think I'll see flakes here until 8:00 or later.

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