March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know how else to put this ... but it appears to me the models simply can't handle this system.

It seems to be correcting west at < 12 hours on every cycle ...but ...soon as it gets to 15... the lows relocate way out at sea, only to correct west when that next run makes that 18 hour the 12...

see the pattern... It's like this thing is going to close in on a BM transit in the models, AS it is happening.  That's what it's seems like to me this hour.

"if" something like that were to rein true, then you got issue back toward NYC and ALB where I'm not sure people would be sufficiently warned.  Let alone... what the hell is happening on the eastern NE coastal plain in a situation like that!  jesus christ.

Also, presently, WPC's surface low is west already (by a little) of these model fixes from 12z and 18z for 12 and 6 hours out, respectively - not sure if that's part and parcel of the above concern. 

Also, national radar scope/loop shows a clear pivot point has evolved near the SE Jersey coast, with moderate snow now flashed over in the MA...

The observation et al don't strike me as a system charging straight out to the Flemmish Cap.

Nude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You have been all over this Tippy! Let's see how the rest of the suite does.

Stall was always a viable solution with the PNA/NAO tandem...this one is a different breed.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, rnaude241 said:

I assume some of that NAM qpf is rain down here but even still that would be a top 2-3 storm for me. 

Rain was so brief on the run, you'd lose next to nothing.

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know how else to put this ... but it appears to me the models simply can't handle this system.

It seems to be correcting west at < 12 hours on every cycle ...but ...soon as it gets to 15... the lows relocate way out at sea, only to correct west when that next run makes that 18 hour the 12...

see the pattern... It's like this thing is going to close in on a BM transit in the models, AS it is happening.  That's what it's seems like to me this hour.

"if" something like that were to rein true, then you got issue back toward NYC and ALB where I'm not sure people would be sufficiently warned.  Let alone... what the hell is happening on the eastern NE coastal plain in a situation like that!  jesus christ.

Also, presently, WPC's surface low is west already (by a little) of these model fixes from 12z and 18z for 12 and 6 hours out, respectively - not sure if that's part and parcel of the above concern. 

Also, national radar scope/loop shows a clear pivot point has evolved near the SE Jersey coast, with moderate snow now flashed over in the MA...

The observation et al don't strike me as a system charging straight out to the Flemmish Cap.

Couldn't have said it better myself. And how appropriate would it be for this thing to cleanly phase on the 25th and 130th anniversary of two of the greatest such occurrences in the annals.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Dendrite and you sharing the Crown?

Royal? Sure.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

This has ASH screwgie written all over it, and I mean all over it. That surface track screams MLM west with CCB east. 

We've been there before....who gets subby -  you or me up here in Boscawen?  Or God forbid bofus?

[Thunderblizzard]

Lol... 3km NAM has about 40" near Harwich, MA.

 

[Hoth]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stall was always a viable solution with the PNA/NAO tandem...this one is a different breed.

Absolutely. Have you put out your final call yet?

[TalcottWx]

You can't make it up. a 40" lolli at the weenie king and my ex's house.

Is it too late to say I'm sorrrrry

[Semper911]

Tweets from James:

Quote

Latest 00z NAM run has a 12"/3 hour band coming through at around 8am tomorrow morning, holy sit

 

Snow to liquid ratios are going to be better than what everyone thinks more like 12,15:1 towards midday tomorrow, starts as 10:1

 

850mb temps dynamically cool the atmosphere so that snow ratios improve throughout the storm tomorrow. Starts off between 10:1 and then ends as 15:1 potentially. NAM would bring 30-40" of snow to the Cape

 

 

[Cyclone-68]

It's always fun to be a witness to something potentially history making 

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Lol... 3km NAM has about 40" near Harwich, MA.

 

James just passed out

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Ray was right, we'll see 30" somewhere, maybe a bit more

Final Call:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/march-13-eastern-new-england-blizzard.html

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Dendrite and you sharing the Crown?

He probably needs the bottle worse then me........lol

[WintersComing]

Lol...Cranky still hinting ots


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[TalcottWx]

What is the K value we often see on weather maps? One thing I've never really learned. I see it on a cross section.

[weatherwiz]

This is sick!!! new addition

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ray going big.  Love watching him blossom as a met 

[dendrite]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

What is the K value we often see on weather maps? One thing I've never really learned. I see it on a cross section.

Potential temps in Kelvin? Example?

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, Semper911 said:

Tweets from James:

 

Lmao, what is his twitter

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Final Call:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/march-13-eastern-new-england-blizzard.html

Nice map...good luck. This is backing in far enough (and slightly slower) to try and get those >2 foot totals....we shall see. I hope it stalls even another 3-5 hours from current guidance.

[rnaude241]

8 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Lol... 3km NAM has about 40" near Harwich, MA.

 

Holy Fuuuuuk!

[Weenie]

So I was away from the forum for a few hours, is cranky correct with the major shift east?

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Potential temps in Kelvin? Example?

I think so... I need to find it a better example. I think I've seen it on Sam Lillo's twitter. Let me hunt it down. 

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

While the 12km run really went nuts - not much change from 18z to 00z on the 3km run. 

The QPF totals were better though in E MA, SE MA and the Cape.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, Weenie said:

So I was away from the forum for a few hours, is cranky correct with the major shift east?

The last three pages will answer every single one of your Q's

[Amped]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM has some insane LLJ...especially at 925mb. An extensive jet streak of >80 knots with > 90 knots at 925. Stronger than the GFS...I wonder if this is a big reason for such high QPF amounts...especially back into a good chunk of CT. What meteorological reasons sort of determine how far from the center frontogenesis banding occurs? Even looking at H7 low track...w/o looking at fronto I would guess it is east of what NAM shows. 

NAM really captures everything with the NS ULL, look how much moisture gets tossed back into the dacks and the finger lakes.   Wouldn't expect that from an offshore track either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice map...good luck. This is backing in far enough (and slightly slower) to try and get those >2 foot totals....we shall see. I hope it stalls even another 3-5 hours from current guidance.

Thanks, bro.

[ajisai]

Lol... 3km NAM has about 40" near Harwich, MA.

 

This storm literally has something for everyone.

[Semper911]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Lmao, what is his twitter

@89nich

Someone can take over posting his tweets when I turn in around midnight.