March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Hey Wiz - are you sure you're looking at this coming storm? Just looking at the 18z GFS and NAM and both look very juicy across the state with deep DGZs and nice omega intersecting it. 

I’m pretty sure he’s hit a few steel reserves this evening 

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Getting light to mod OES right now. Experienced it on my rise from exeter up to  Dover.

With temps in mid 30’s nothing really accumulating at the moment.

 

[Weenie]

Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

lol having seen the pictures in Hartford and New Haven it definitely looked like a good 40-55 inches. 

Oh trust me...I know. Those pics are insane. I think Don S had some good ones on his site too. 

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, Weenie said:

Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?

who is cranky??

[CT Rain]

Just now, dendrite said:

Oh trust me...I know. Those pics are insane. I think Don S had some good ones on his site too. 

Kevin would have slantsticked 48" while the valley got the real 4 footer.

[Baroclinic Zone]

22z HRRR is great down this way.  18-20" thru runs end and still going.  Looks like that run would have been good for 24"+.

[dendrite]

Wizzy this is pretty damn good.  

[Logan11]

The Blizzard of '88 was talked about a lot in my family - of Brooklyn at the time.  My grandfather was born almost 9 months to the day of  the Blizzard in December 1888. and my grandmother was born in 1894. She lives up into her 80's so I knew her when I was a kid and heard plenty of blizzard stories passed on by her parents.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Oh trust me...I know. Those pics are insane. I think Don S had some good ones on his site too. 

 

[butterfish55]

3 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?

He's been saying out to sea, east east east for a week about this storm.  He's either going to look like a genius or a stubborn idiot (hopefully the latter).   

[Hoth]

This thing is already looking awesome on satellite.

[Weenie]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

This thing is already looking awesome on satellite.

Where can I find a loop?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wiz never likes soundings....always reads through them and depresses himself.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

He's been saying out to sea, east east east for a week about this storm.  He's either going to look like a genius or a stubborn idiot (hopefully the latter).   

Smart dude but rather prickish

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wiz never likes soundings....always reads through them and depresses himself.

He used to go full Weenie mode at them. He has really toned it down

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Hey Wiz - are you sure you're looking at this coming storm? Just looking at the 18z GFS and NAM and both look very juicy across the state with deep DGZs and nice omega intersecting it. 

hmmm...I took screen shots of what I was looking at. Maybe I misinterpret the SGZ on bufkit (I still don't know if I fully understand the purple and yellow contours...even though people have told me...I just forget...need to write it down). 

But what I interpreted was how the SGZ seemed to decrease (slope down to the left) that this meant the SGZ was lowering below the desired height (12K-18K). -15C intersects which is great and plenty of RH within the zone...what I meant by dry was just the look on the skew-t's...though GFS seemed fully saturated.

 

  

[Weenie]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

This thing is already looking awesome on satellite.

Where can I find a loop?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wiz never likes soundings....always reads through them and depresses himself.

He will lose his shiat over a few hundred joules of cape though. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wizzy this is pretty damn good.  

woah...is that a free or pay site? this is cool (no pun intended)

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wiz never likes soundings....always reads through them and depresses himself.

[BRSno]

Gotta feel for the DC folks. This one was theirs for a few runs lol

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

its free, great for a quick look at omega in the dgz

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Where can I find a loop?

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northamerica-08-48-1-100-1&checked=map

[rnaude241]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

22z HRRR is great down this way.  18-20" thru runs end and still going.  Looks like that run would have been good for 24"+.

Looks great! 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, ajisai said:

Is the guy out in Logan still slant sticking? lol

He's negative sticking 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

woah...is that a free or pay site? this is cool (no pun intended)

Doesn’t look much different from your bufkit ones. That IJD image is awesome. 30 microbars smack in the middle of the DGZ. 10-15ubars is pretty decent too. That GFS one for IJD is a little meh. I’ll agree on that. 

[weathafella]

HRRR and RAP are locked and loaded.   Wow!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Cranky is saying that the fact that the trof is sweeping and not digging and the fact that the low is racing ENE means that the Eastern guidance will win out. What does the forum think?

Every other post for 5 days has been “low and away” or east this east that.

It’s weird, especially in the face of current guidance 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Doesn’t look much different from your bufkit ones. That IJD image is awesome. 30 microbars smack in the middle of the DGZ. 10-15ubars is pretty decent too. That GFS one for IJD is a little meh. I’ll agree on that. 

IJD certainly looks real solid. I think my concern with this back across CT is just how to forecast this b/c this is really all about the banding here and there is going to be some crazy gradients. Determining where the band sets up, how narrow/wide the band is, and how it propagates determines what we see. I think outside of the band there will be issues with good snow rates/snow growth. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Every other post for 5 days has been “low and away” or east this east that.

It’s weird, especially in the face of current guidance 

I don't recall Captain Smith jumping into the first available lifeboat.