Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Just a little. Honestly at first glance it reminds me of Boxing day 2010. Big storm for central VA, lighter snow for us, then it intensifies just in time to nail Philly north. At least on this GFS run.

The 500 maps are a bit different tho.  I think what we have going for us is that NS.  I think Boxing Day was mostly just a poorly aligned nor’easter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Bristow, based on the precip map, we're close to a warning level event.

Ok drinks and appetizers then...yes close..I’m not as skeptical because this is like a totally new set up with new timelines and h5 when compared to earlier in the week...the other was good but that ship has sailed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it possible for this still shift north? I remember someone saying a while ago that it the central VA bullseye won’t verify and it will probably shift north. Or is it too late for that? I mean, we already saw a big shift again so I think anything is possible with this roller coaster of a storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Kind of odd the way it jumps the energy from the TN/KY border to the coast in southern SC. I would think it would be a little north of that. It is also a little strung out when it makes the jump. This still has room to come further north I think.

I noticed that too. It makes a hell of a jump from KY to off SC. Gotta think it wouldn’t verify as strange as that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this storm could have big ticket potential if the stars align.  looks like the gfs hangs back some of that southern stream energy until the NS catches up.  i think we then want that GL energy to be as far west and south as possible (and probably sooner than later)...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031012&fh=60

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031012&fh=60

also, this has turned into a monday storm, with maybe monday afternoon/evening being the fun stuff (if the gfs is right and if it trends better).

still gotta favor the northeast, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Interstate said:

Remebmer when this was supposed to start Sunday.  Now we are looking at Monday. A full 24 hour delay 

Its not really a delay.  We are using predictive models.  The margin for error on the simplest of setups 5 days out is probably +/- 12 hours.  This setup is very complex. lots of moving parts.  So 24 hours is just a function of normal margin here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, nj2va said:

SnowGoose in the NY forum says it has an east bias with strong coastal lows so perhaps we can cling our hopes to that.

Anything sub 980-985 or rapidly bombing it’s usually east.  Even inside 24 hours I’ve seen it be 40-50 miles too east so at this range even more so 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

SnowGoose in the NY forum says it has an east bias with strong coastal lows so perhaps we can cling our hopes to that.

I'm clinging to that.  But biases aside.  Standard margin of error would argue we could be in the game.  I think people who jumped the ship should get a pass to get back on board.  We are looking at different storm altogether at this point

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...