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Rtd208

March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations

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2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

LOL - raining in the "CCB".  Raining in Woodmere as well.

For the second straight storm the GFS had the thermals "right' better than the other crap models. The euro is as worthless as the NAM these days....don't care what you guys say.

The GFS had rain into NE NJ which was wrong and the NAM was too far West with the heaviest snows.

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Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

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2 for 2

A great system once again esp N and W as the pattern has cooperated with some of the past analogs we used at 500

This is snowmaggedon 2 displaced N and W , so places in EPA NWNJ and the HV saw 2 excellent snowstorms in just 5 days 

 

The 3rd  / the last in the series will be Monday 

Only a small correction is needed for another major winter storm to take aim at the area.

Once again , I am not fully sold on the coast like I am the interior but like today details sometimes ruin a great pattern forecast 

 

Here in Monmouth County we got 5 today and not the 10 I thought 

But the 12 to 18 worked out great N and W

 

Goos luck Monday 

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

As of 5 pm, we were up to 6.25" (1.5" that hour) and we then got 1.5" between 5 and 6 pm, so we're up to 7.75" for the storm (about 7" on the ground, plus the 3/4" we had this morning) as of 6 pm. And still coming down. Can we get another hour out of this and get to 9"? Maybe.

So, just did my 2nd shoveling (not nearly as bad as the first - lower water content) in the middle of the last hurrah of the storm, so that was fun. Measured 7.75" on the ground at about 7:30 pm, which, combined with the 3/4" from this morning, gives me a final tally of 8.5". So my 6" guess from 2 days ago ended up being better than my 13" guess this morning before things got going, lol.  

Got too enamored with the models, I guess, and that surprise sleet/rain actually took away about 1" from my final measurement, as the snow compacted from about 3" to 2" at that time (need to talk with NOAA about that, as I don't think it's accurate to not account for that compaction due to rain, but the measurement guidelines don't appear to allow one to correct for that compaction), plus the 90 minutes of mostly missing snow probably took away another 2+", i.e., we could've had 11-12" if not for the sleet/rain. Oh well. Still a helluva storm for March, with some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen (3" per hour at times), plus THUNDERSNOW! 

And I won a $100 bet with an on-line friend from the RU football message board: the bet was that New Brunswick would get more than its average snowfall for March, of 4.2".  We made the bet back when I was posting on that board in late Feb about the upcoming potentially snowy pattern.  Not sure what NB got officially, but I saw unofficial reports of around 7". Was a fun bet as the loser donates to the RU Football Program.

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Just now, NYCGreg said:

Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

This whole area along 287 in Passaic and Bergen is over 20”. Pretty sure I saw an official report for 19” in Oakland and 19” in North Caldwell.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

People who relied too much on snow maps instead of knowledge were exposed with this storm.

like snow88 who is still stating the HRRR is showing 4-6" more?

  • Haha 2

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS had rain into NE NJ which was wrong and the NAM was too far West with the heaviest snows.

The death band that hit you guys in NE NJ was showing on the 0z NAM in Sussex county running through western Orange, instead it ran through W Passaic/Bergen into eastern orange. We got a piece of the band for 2 hrs and it was truly amazing. Glad you guys finally cashed in down there!

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5 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

A trained spotter in Franklin Lakes, NJ measured 24".

CoCoRaHs in Oakland, NJ had 19".

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6 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

Kinnelon, Franklin Lakes, Butler all well over 20"  Warren, Berkley Heights, Stirling, Gillette, Morristown, Madison, Caldwell, Verona, East Hanover, Randolph at or within a couple inches of 20 see Tomer Bergs tweet can't link for some reason 18-28" all over morris, bergen, sussex country

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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

People who relied too much on snow maps instead of knowledge were exposed with this storm.

 

Luckily we don't use snow maps 

I posted in here 4 days ago that this was 3 to 6 on the coast and 6 to 12 inland 

I think Neg NAO will confirm at that time Mt Holly had all rain in their AFD

 

And a day prior we went 6 to 10 on the coast and 12 to 18 inland 

 

2 for 2 , now we wait for Monday 

 

 

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Kinnelon, Franklin Lakes, Butler all well over 20"  Warren, Berkley Heights, Stirling, Gillette, Morristown, Madison, Caldwell, Verona, East Hanover, Randolph at or within a couple inches of 20 see Tomer Bergs tweet can't link for some reason 18-28" all over morris, bergen, sussex country

MMU and the vicinity is reported as 16”-22”


.
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7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

10 inches in Easton CT. 

Slowed to a snow drizzle mix.

37.5 on the year officially above average year

WE have one more band to come through..

 

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The death band that hit you guys in NE NJ was showing on the 0z NAM in Sussex county running through western Orange, instead it ran through W Passaic/Bergen into eastern orange. We got a piece of the band for 2 hrs and it was truly amazing. Glad you guys finally cashed in down there!

Awesome to watch out my window... but now lacking power and dreading shoveling in the morning.


.

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2 minutes ago, Pitmaster15 said:

Very close to 2 ft- haven’t measured officially yet. I’m at 400’ elevation in Sloatsburg. The last few hours were epic

 

504228C7-2F67-4C5B-9690-B1E080F3DA5A.jpeg

FA48D524-C7CE-459B-AC6D-8F77D23FD138.jpeg

Damn thats a lot of snow for march 7th..

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Just now, tomcatct said:

WE have one more band to come through..

 

And that band dumped ~4" on me on its way past. I'm at somewhere around 18" but will measure in a little while when I go out to move the mailbox high plow pile before the next plow comes by and totally wrecks my back ;) 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

People who relied too much on snow maps instead of knowledge were exposed with this storm.

exactly. QPF queens will perhaps learn someday. other lessons to take home from today:

  • difficulty accumulating in coastal UHIs in marginal boundary layers
    • climatology for 6+" storms in march shows low risk
  • watch for mesoscale details, like:
    • frontogenetic/deformation banding - that was the hot spot, as you'd expect, and the NAM and GFS didn't catch onto the placement of that until today (except random other runs days ago)
      • heaviest snow fell just left of strongest frontogenesis
    • dry slot - model internals were onto this despite QPF imperfections (look at 700-500 RH progs)
    • lapse rates + dynamics - 6.5-7.5+ C/km progged and observed plus impressive upper dynamics contributed to prolific thundersnow (dry slot also associated w/ this)
  • level of impact not always directly related to accumulations
    • i.e. in aviation, runways contaminated with any snow + unfavorable crosswinds winds (~G30KT+) can be a low or no ops situation

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9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

10 inches in Easton CT. 

Slowed to a snow drizzle mix.

37.5 on the year officially above average year

A light rain, flipped quickly. Big drops too. Maybe we switch back in the last band. Real quick compaction with the mashed potatoes on the ground. Maybe half here at 95 than you.

Screenshot_20180307-201002.png

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12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This whole area along 287 in Passaic and Bergen is over 20”. Pretty sure I saw an official report for 19” in Oakland and 19” in North Caldwell.

What was your storm total up there?

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15 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Not saying they are wrong, but I have yet to see an official report anywhere of over 20 inches from this storm.  I'm guessing around 10 people have stated on this board they have over 20 inches from this storm.  Pretty amazing.

Some big numbers posted with Mt. Holly, and I think some of our posters are covered by them.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

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The actual snowfall in Manhattan was quite modest. Central Park as of 5pm  today showed at most 2" of very wet slushy snow, on grass and wooden surfaces.

Quite windy, in the 15+mph range, snow in big wet flakes

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17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

10 inches in Easton CT. 

Slowed to a snow drizzle mix.

37.5 on the year officially above average year

Did you lose power? 

Def getting a generator soon.

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took the family to Mahwah. Crazy difference driiving back between Upper Bergen and Nyc metro. Once over the GWB the roads has no snow. Went from 20 inches to about 10 in the paramaus area to around 3-5 here in Western Nassau.

 NYC?LI just dont seem to accumate with borderline temps. The 850 and 925 temps were good and so was LP placement. Frustrating! but happy i saw the 20 inches and crazy snow rates before coming home.

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2 minutes ago, etudiant said:

The actual snowfall in Manhattan was quite modest. Central Park as of 5pm  today showed at most 2" of very wet slushy snow, on grass and wooden surfaces.

Quite windy, in the 15+mph range, snow in big wet flakes

The UHI killed the more developed areas of NYC. It wasn't really a north-south thing because Staten Island had 8"....and we had about 5-6" here in the Northeast Bronx. 

You have to account for UHI when it's a late-season storm with a marginal boundary layer. There wasn't an arctic high in place so we didn't have a very cold airmass.

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