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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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All models tend to show too much snow in "bad patterns" for whatever reason, but its also made worse by perception bias.  We only see or pay attention to the control runs that have a HUGE hit like last night.  But the previous several runs had nothing.  So just because it had one run that showed a blizzard doesn't mean we should fairly say it is predicting a blizzard since all its other runs had nothing.  We just notice the big snow runs more then all the ones showing nothing.  

What the GFS just did to us was way worse where the consensus of its runs for about 7 days was a big snowstorm.  

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Just now, Jandurin said:

To be fair, everywhere but here is getting snow so it wasn't that wrong.

 

lol

If you look at a hemispheric view of the mean H5 for the 48 hours around this storm you would think we got crushed...it was small more regional issues that ruined it for us.  The table was set to perfection but then the food was overcooked. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you look at a hemispheric view of the mean H5 for the 48 hours around this storm you would think we got crushed...it was small more regional issues that ruined it for us.  The table was set to perfection but then the food was overcooked. 

The waiter dropped our food on the way to the table then the kitchen caught fire and the restaurant lost power and they sent us home without a scrap.

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One reality many don't want to deal with is that when you look at the general pattern that produced "near misses and fails" to ones that were our big "hits" there is barely an difference if any at all.  Just looking at some of the H5 of misses vs hits you can't tell many of them apart.  The small surface features or minuscule differences in location of large features that will determine a near miss from a hit aren't going to present with any accuracy until inside medium range.  Most good setups will fail.  If every good look ended up a big snowstorm we would get way more of them.  Things going wrong THIS time alone wasnt that big a deal.  What sucked was that we had several marginal and a few good looks this winter and every single one failed.  That was rare.  We should have done better with the number and quality of chances we had.  This might have been the only REALLY GOOD setup but we had a lot of marginal mediocre ones and some of those have to hit for us to have a good winter.  

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One reality many don't want to deal with is that when you look at the general pattern that produced "near misses and fails" to ones that were our big "hits" there is barely an difference if any at all.  Just looking at some of the H5 of misses vs hits you can't tell many of them apart.  The small surface features or minuscule differences in location of large features that will determine a near miss from a hit aren't going to present with any accuracy until inside medium range.  Most good setups will fail.  If every good look ended up a big snowstorm we would get way more of them.  Things going wrong THIS time alone wasnt that big a deal.  What sucked was that we had several marginal and a few good looks this winter and every single one failed.  That was rare.  We should have done better with the number and quality of chances we had.  This might have been the only REALLY GOOD setup but we had a lot of marginal mediocre ones and some of those have to hit for us to have a good winter.  

i think it also didn't help that this might be one of the last chances we get this winter.  if this was january, i'm sure people would care less.

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Our Winter Part 1 

Back in the fall we knew it wasn't gonna be easy but but we all had hope before the season turned queasy. After 2016/17 we needed some snow, but with another Nina the right pattern was unlikely to show.  Then in November there were hints of a tanking AO and with that the spirits of the snow weary started to grow. With signs that there could finally be some blocking, there was jubilation that this winter could be rocking. 

December started with just a taste, and faith grew that this season wouldn't be another waste.

IMG_3220.thumb.PNG.d2aeeb1160ab903f77d0335346786a72.PNG

With a decent snow on December 9th many felt the fears of a bust season were gone, if only we knew how the rest of winter would go wrong.  As Christmas approached dreams of blizzards danced in my head, little did I know the rest of winter would sink like lead.  

The weenie snow maps were so amazing we had to pray it was real

IMG_4636.GIF.bba59f5877f785f0b071db2c55cebe28.GIF

but the winter season would soon bring us to heel.  Then the perfect pattern showed up. A juiced up stj had us carried away. 

IMG_4653.GIF.84aad2092cc8d49fa9aea26647b852d1.GIF

The week before xmas the historic model output was read.  

IMG_3461.thumb.PNG.d652af89e0bbbaf3e764a5d3fd02e211.PNG

But by xmas day those dreams would be dead.

IMG_4621.GIF.4f21bb3c0a5fd6a9fb9bccaa1e6ade5d.GIF

But January and February still lay in ahead  

 Optimism was high with so much of winter still in front 

Too bad we didn't yet know the rest would just make us grunt

(To be continued)

 

 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

One reality many don't want to deal with is that when you look at the general pattern that produced "near misses and fails" to ones that were our big "hits" there is barely an difference if any at all.  Just looking at some of the H5 of misses vs hits you can't tell many of them apart.  The small surface features or minuscule differences in location of large features that will determine a near miss from a hit aren't going to present with any accuracy until inside medium range.  Most good setups will fail.  If every good look ended up a big snowstorm we would get way more of them.  Things going wrong THIS time alone wasnt that big a deal.  What sucked was that we had several marginal and a few good looks this winter and every single one failed.  That was rare.  We should have done better with the number and quality of chances we had.  This might have been the only REALLY GOOD setup but we had a lot of marginal mediocre ones and some of those have to hit for us to have a good winter.  

Couldn't agree more, things like strength / speed / number of shortwaves etc will never be resolved at day 10-14 intervals despite the fact the overall H5 look may be very close to the actual outcome. It's the same reason it can snow in a bad pattern, sometimes individual minute parameters when combined together can overcome a hostile environment, think the whole is greater than the sum of it's parts.

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Our Winter Part II

As New Years passed we hit the ground running, for big snowstorms we would be gunning. 

The pattern locked in sure was cold, but so far the snowfall had been less bold. 

Then a bomb cyclone approached but early indications were our snow shield wouldn't be broached. Then the U.K. And Euro threw us runs that teased

IMG_4654.GIF.53a9c587f42734ae16726bc99b3a8a4e.GIF

surely this time our snow thirst would be appeased. 

But the bomb went off late and it wasn't to be, so once again we found ourselves down on a knee

IMG_4646.GIF.18d10613d6f0646b70f066e06921c0b3.GIF

Then suddenly from the midst of despair the gfs and euro came with a setup so rare. An h5 low cut off below us. Even Ian and Wes popped in to see the fuss. 

IMG_3650.thumb.PNG.03aa6ef6fb2f76bc4f30b59bce9f042c.PNG

but sure enough a few runs later it turned into mush

IMG_3680.thumb.PNG.177858c1201825388e4057933247ec6a.PNG

IMG_4650.GIF.096af916394effc4cb5f006d81737223.GIF

so the warmup arrived and our snow banks were empty,  but the long range looked better so hope was aplenty.  

We rolled towards February bruised and battered, but confident snow would come and that's all that mattered....

To be continued...

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Our Winter Part II

As New Years passed we hit the ground running, for big snowstorms we would be gunning. 

The pattern locked in sure was cold, but so far the snowfall had been less bold. 

Then a bomb cyclone approached but early indications were our snow shield wouldn't be broached. Then the U.K. And Euro threw us runs that teased

IMG_4654.GIF.53a9c587f42734ae16726bc99b3a8a4e.GIF

surely this time our snow thirst would be appeased. 

But the bomb went off late and it wasn't to be, so once again we found ourselves down on a knee

IMG_4646.GIF.18d10613d6f0646b70f066e06921c0b3.GIF

Then suddenly from the midst of despair the gfs and euro came with a setup so rare. An h5 low cut off below us. Even Ian and Wes popped in to see the fuss. 

IMG_3650.thumb.PNG.03aa6ef6fb2f76bc4f30b59bce9f042c.PNG

but sure enough a few runs later it turned into mush

IMG_3680.thumb.PNG.177858c1201825388e4057933247ec6a.PNGIMG_4651.GIF.45cea344271d84f6a8f643d9854b18b1.GIF

so the warmup arrived and our snow banks were empty,  but the long range looked better so hope was aplenty.  

We rolled towards February bruised and battered, but confident snow would come and that's all that mattered....

To be continued...

 

oh my God. This is where mitch said he wanted a pattern change to warm and you warned him not to wish for it. We never saw snow again....Or Mitch

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

oh my God. This is where mitch said he wanted a pattern change to warm and you warned him not to wish for it. We never saw snow again....Or Mitch

Yes. Ninas are usually dry. But cold dry gives us a shot. Eventually something might clip us. But I thought it was unlikely a reshuffle was magically going to lead to a cold wet look. More likely we would just waste time. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yes. Ninas are usually dry. But cold dry gives us a shot. Eventually something might clip us. But I thought it was unlikely a reshuffle was magically going to lead to a cold wet look. More likely we would just waste time. 

Well, you were right. Don't think warm & wet sounds better than cold & dry. At least we got some cold. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then

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