mappy Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 dont give up snow lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 28 minutes ago, mappy said: dont give up snow lovers! Euro control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro control. euro ccontrol has given me about 850 inches this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro control. a little more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 40 minutes ago, Ji said: euro ccontrol has given me about 850 inches this year More like “out of control”. That would work if it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 All models tend to show too much snow in "bad patterns" for whatever reason, but its also made worse by perception bias. We only see or pay attention to the control runs that have a HUGE hit like last night. But the previous several runs had nothing. So just because it had one run that showed a blizzard doesn't mean we should fairly say it is predicting a blizzard since all its other runs had nothing. We just notice the big snow runs more then all the ones showing nothing. What the GFS just did to us was way worse where the consensus of its runs for about 7 days was a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 To be fair, everywhere but here is getting snow so it wasn't that wrong. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: To be fair, everywhere but here is getting snow so it wasn't that wrong. lol If you look at a hemispheric view of the mean H5 for the 48 hours around this storm you would think we got crushed...it was small more regional issues that ruined it for us. The table was set to perfection but then the food was overcooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Farmer's Almanac says "strong winds and heavy precipitation" for that day...but doesn't specify which kind....not that that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you look at a hemispheric view of the mean H5 for the 48 hours around this storm you would think we got crushed...it was small more regional issues that ruined it for us. The table was set to perfection but then the food was overcooked. The waiter dropped our food on the way to the table then the kitchen caught fire and the restaurant lost power and they sent us home without a scrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 One reality many don't want to deal with is that when you look at the general pattern that produced "near misses and fails" to ones that were our big "hits" there is barely an difference if any at all. Just looking at some of the H5 of misses vs hits you can't tell many of them apart. The small surface features or minuscule differences in location of large features that will determine a near miss from a hit aren't going to present with any accuracy until inside medium range. Most good setups will fail. If every good look ended up a big snowstorm we would get way more of them. Things going wrong THIS time alone wasnt that big a deal. What sucked was that we had several marginal and a few good looks this winter and every single one failed. That was rare. We should have done better with the number and quality of chances we had. This might have been the only REALLY GOOD setup but we had a lot of marginal mediocre ones and some of those have to hit for us to have a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One reality many don't want to deal with is that when you look at the general pattern that produced "near misses and fails" to ones that were our big "hits" there is barely an difference if any at all. Just looking at some of the H5 of misses vs hits you can't tell many of them apart. The small surface features or minuscule differences in location of large features that will determine a near miss from a hit aren't going to present with any accuracy until inside medium range. Most good setups will fail. If every good look ended up a big snowstorm we would get way more of them. Things going wrong THIS time alone wasnt that big a deal. What sucked was that we had several marginal and a few good looks this winter and every single one failed. That was rare. We should have done better with the number and quality of chances we had. This might have been the only REALLY GOOD setup but we had a lot of marginal mediocre ones and some of those have to hit for us to have a good winter. i think it also didn't help that this might be one of the last chances we get this winter. if this was january, i'm sure people would care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Got some returns coming into the area this morning. Dew points don't seem that low. Anyone want to break down the likelihood of all this staying virga until tonight as depicted on most models given it doesn't seem to be that dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 We should start tracking 60 degree weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Euro control. We got this. This is the storm after the storm after the other storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Weird rando band just north of Mt. Jackpotville. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Our Winter Part 1 Back in the fall we knew it wasn't gonna be easy but but we all had hope before the season turned queasy. After 2016/17 we needed some snow, but with another Nina the right pattern was unlikely to show. Then in November there were hints of a tanking AO and with that the spirits of the snow weary started to grow. With signs that there could finally be some blocking, there was jubilation that this winter could be rocking. December started with just a taste, and faith grew that this season wouldn't be another waste. With a decent snow on December 9th many felt the fears of a bust season were gone, if only we knew how the rest of winter would go wrong. As Christmas approached dreams of blizzards danced in my head, little did I know the rest of winter would sink like lead. The weenie snow maps were so amazing we had to pray it was real but the winter season would soon bring us to heel. Then the perfect pattern showed up. A juiced up stj had us carried away. The week before xmas the historic model output was read. But by xmas day those dreams would be dead. But January and February still lay in ahead Optimism was high with so much of winter still in front Too bad we didn't yet know the rest would just make us grunt (To be continued) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: One reality many don't want to deal with is that when you look at the general pattern that produced "near misses and fails" to ones that were our big "hits" there is barely an difference if any at all. Just looking at some of the H5 of misses vs hits you can't tell many of them apart. The small surface features or minuscule differences in location of large features that will determine a near miss from a hit aren't going to present with any accuracy until inside medium range. Most good setups will fail. If every good look ended up a big snowstorm we would get way more of them. Things going wrong THIS time alone wasnt that big a deal. What sucked was that we had several marginal and a few good looks this winter and every single one failed. That was rare. We should have done better with the number and quality of chances we had. This might have been the only REALLY GOOD setup but we had a lot of marginal mediocre ones and some of those have to hit for us to have a good winter. Couldn't agree more, things like strength / speed / number of shortwaves etc will never be resolved at day 10-14 intervals despite the fact the overall H5 look may be very close to the actual outcome. It's the same reason it can snow in a bad pattern, sometimes individual minute parameters when combined together can overcome a hostile environment, think the whole is greater than the sum of it's parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 GGEM has that look again...that look where we get skipped over and Northeast gets bombed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Our Winter Part II As New Years passed we hit the ground running, for big snowstorms we would be gunning. The pattern locked in sure was cold, but so far the snowfall had been less bold. Then a bomb cyclone approached but early indications were our snow shield wouldn't be broached. Then the U.K. And Euro threw us runs that teased surely this time our snow thirst would be appeased. But the bomb went off late and it wasn't to be, so once again we found ourselves down on a knee Then suddenly from the midst of despair the gfs and euro came with a setup so rare. An h5 low cut off below us. Even Ian and Wes popped in to see the fuss. but sure enough a few runs later it turned into mush so the warmup arrived and our snow banks were empty, but the long range looked better so hope was aplenty. We rolled towards February bruised and battered, but confident snow would come and that's all that mattered.... To be continued... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Our Winter Part II As New Years passed we hit the ground running, for big snowstorms we would be gunning. The pattern locked in sure was cold, but so far the snowfall had been less bold. Then a bomb cyclone approached but early indications were our snow shield wouldn't be broached. Then the U.K. And Euro threw us runs that teased surely this time our snow thirst would be appeased. But the bomb went off late and it wasn't to be, so once again we found ourselves down on a knee Then suddenly from the midst of despair the gfs and euro came with a setup so rare. An h5 low cut off below us. Even Ian and Wes popped in to see the fuss. but sure enough a few runs later it turned into mush so the warmup arrived and our snow banks were empty, but the long range looked better so hope was aplenty. We rolled towards February bruised and battered, but confident snow would come and that's all that mattered.... To be continued... oh my God. This is where mitch said he wanted a pattern change to warm and you warned him not to wish for it. We never saw snow again....Or Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: oh my God. This is where mitch said he wanted a pattern change to warm and you warned him not to wish for it. We never saw snow again....Or Mitch See what happens when snow weenies wish away brutal cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Good stuff PSU. Is this the much anticipated rant? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Don't worry -- 12z GFS at 360 suggests good snows with a 987mb SLP just east of OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: oh my God. This is where mitch said he wanted a pattern change to warm and you warned him not to wish for it. We never saw snow again....Or Mitch Yes. Ninas are usually dry. But cold dry gives us a shot. Eventually something might clip us. But I thought it was unlikely a reshuffle was magically going to lead to a cold wet look. More likely we would just waste time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yes. Ninas are usually dry. But cold dry gives us a shot. Eventually something might clip us. But I thought it was unlikely a reshuffle was magically going to lead to a cold wet look. More likely we would just waste time. Well, you were right. Don't think warm & wet sounds better than cold & dry. At least we got some cold. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Good stuff PSU. Is this the much anticipated rant? lol Yes but the good stuff comes in the final credits part V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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