Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[WxBlue]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The circulation tightens up by the time it gets to SE MA, so we should see the gradient tighten up on the North/West side of the circulation with heights crashing. I'm not concerned for us. Hampton beach area on south, is getting close to some taint, I agree...but that was already well reflected in the EPS probs.

 

9 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Embrace the canal track and play with fire. That's the prime spot for a S NH crusher. 

 

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You need to sniff the taint to get the goods......................

We're already about to pass the annual average of snow so might as well go big or go home on this one. 

I'm still learning about this area's climatology with big storms so I have no idea if the track over the Canal is close or not. NAM clown map (lol) has us (Dover) very close to the gradient zone. I guess I'm getting greedy and want to beat my 15" record.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

In a perfect world, we want it maybe just a hair east of the canal. Don't want dendrite to steal our jackpot. 

Don’t worry. I don’t snow-QPF jackpot in the biggies. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hopefully I don’t have to listen to how good the Euro did. IF it caves, it was schooled by the other models, which have had little here for days.

 

I wouldn't call it a cave when it subtly shifts west since you are on the edge anyways. Those pretty algorithms are bullsh*t. 

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Any further west and wed have some mid level dryslot issues. That run is close but would work. 

Yeah, don't want it to track over PYM. The 700mb low goes over our heads that run but not before crushing us. Definitely would prefer a mid-level low track more similar to the 00z. It's probably too amped and we settle on something between the canal and MVY. I think this is our storm. 

[bboughton]

What should I be expecting in Boston/Brookline/Cambridge? Seem to be right on the line of cold rain and heavy snow. 

[Hoth]

NAM has also completely given up on the stall idea.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

10mi in this set will mean the difference between no snow and like a foot. 

That's almost always the case, *somewhere*.

Anyway my point was with regard to grid spacing. You didn't use the 3km apparently, bc it passed just south of the canal.

[Cold Miser]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah he's cooked. This isn't the setup for I-95.

I am guessing even north eastern CT may be in jeopardy with the west shift.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Yeah, don't want it to track over PYM. The 700mb low goes over our heads that run but not before crushing us. Definitely would prefer a mid-level low track more similar to the 00z. It's probably too amped and we settle on something between the canal and MVY. I think this is our storm. 

Yea the euro being as far east as it is a good hedge at this point, and a huge confidence booster for us.

[apm]

3 minutes ago, bboughton said:

What should I be expecting in Boston/Brookline/Cambridge? Seem to be right on the line of cold rain and heavy snow. 

Given the recent trends, mostly rain.

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This H5 pattern supports the low track near NJ though and then kissing SNE coast. I know it's the NAM, but it's not like I can laugh at that solution like I normally do at the NAM. I can't help but think the euro comes west. Even if the NAM is too amped, it's tough for BOS area to have a snowy scenario unless the euro solution verified. Definitely an interior event.

I agree with the track kissing the NJ coast as it re-develops, but it's where it tracks from there that's fuzzy.  Does it stay tucky-tucky or does it get kicked east some.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

I am guessing even north eastern CT may be in jeopardy with the west shift.

What West shift? I’ve never seen anything like this for a track set in stone. Mid levels and surface all go SE of CT. Relax 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

TFlizz needs a restraining jacket. He ruins every thread with his whining unless he gets snow or jacks. Straight up, dood has crushed in so many storms. Suck it up for a change.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

TFlizz needs a restraining jacket. He ruins every thread with his whining unless he gets snow or jacks. Straight up, dood has crushed in so many storms. Suck it up for a change.

Agree. Man that guy is in for some reality when he regresses.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah he's cooked. This isn't the setup for I-95.

Finally a cf in my area.

[weathafella]

Reggie?  Heading to a funeral here in NJ.  Warnings here as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Agree. Man that guy is in for some reality when he regresses.

Any man that uses the term nothing burger needs to look at themselves in the mirror and reevaluate 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

A compromise is still in order. If there was no block then I’d lean more towards the nam like last March. 

[moneypitmike]

I'm considering staying put in GC.  I'll make final call after the GFS/EC come out.  What a trouncing for western Mass on the NAM.

[codfishsnowman]

one thing the models are really in agreement on is burying nyc metro.....talk about a snow charmed life the last couple decades....this might produce 30 inch totals hpn to pou to dxr....shades of Lindsay 2/1969

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

NAM has also completely given up on the stall idea.

That is no surprise. 

[weathafella]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I'm considering staying put in GC.  I'll make final call after the GFS/EC come out.  What a trouncing for western Mass on the NAM.

I’d go down east.  GC may win in snow totals or not but pit2 will be more dynamic.

[snowman21]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree. Man that guy is in for some reality when he regresses.

To be fair he could be 20 and of the mind that blizzards grow on trees, and Boston sports teams win titles regularly because that's how it's been his entire life.

[wxsniss]

7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Great pbp while at work. High fiving over to rain in 3 minutes. 

Pretty obvious at H5 as early as 24 hours that this would tuck more and threaten our snow here... we will need trough to get squashed and the system to kick east after it closes like last night's runs, otherwise we are warm and dryslot. 12z Euro will be critical guidance for us.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

TFlizz needs a restraining jacket. He ruins every thread with his whining unless he gets snow or jacks. Straight up, dood has crushed in so many storms. Suck it up for a change.

You do the same exact ****. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

To be fair he could be 20 and of the mind that blizzards grow on trees, and Boston sports teams win titles regularly because that's how it's been his entire life.

its like hitting 10k on the first few spins at the casino and then months and years later you realize just how rare those big hits are

[jbenedet]

One helluva pack for upstate NY and southern VT. 12-18" on top of this? 

3-4' 

 

https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

[Cold Miser]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What West shift? I’ve never seen anything like this for a track set in stone. Mid levels and surface all go SE of CT. Relax 

lol. I was trying to get Steve's attention with my rain talk.

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any man that uses the term nothing burger needs to look at themselves in the mirror and reevaluate 

Yeah. For some reason that term is really cringy and sounds awkward when people use it.  I heard one of my kids use it last year, and that was only to mock someone else.  

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’d go down east.  GC may win in snow totals or not but pit2 will be more dynamic.

Thanks, Jerry.  That had been my inclination all along, but the last 12 hours have given me pause.  Fortunatley, I don't need to make the decision right now 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You do the same exact ****. 

What? you have be effin kidding me.