Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[TalcottWx]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just watched your buddy Pete B start the back pedaling.  Said he's "really wrestling with where R/S line sets up".

Also, feel free to notice his painful attempts to sound cool when delivering the forecasts. He literally used the term 'woke' during tonight's forecast and I laughed out loud. 

 

 

 

[snowdazed]

I've completely lost track.  What's the expectation for RI now?  Especially in terms of onset.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

Also, feel free to notice his painful attempts to sound cool when delivering the forecasts. He literally used the term 'woke' during tonight's forecast and I laughed out loud. 

 

 

 

Did he use “nothingburger”?

[wxsniss]

RGEM unquestionably ~ 30-50 miles southeast at least... 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, snowdazed said:

I've completely lost track.  What's the expectation for RI now?  Especially in terms of onset.

Depends where...I think the NW half of RI could be in for a huge paste job.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

RGEM unquestionably ~ 30-50 miles southeast at least... 

 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Did he use “nothingburger”?

He said that last storm. Just cringe worthy. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Plenty of storms in the past that have appeared that way ended up much differently..easy to say in hindsight, but had the system's departure been slowed by a few hours it could have easily been different.

Ah crap I meant to say missed that call sorry dude - it's my stupid phone

[MarkO]

NAM map 10:1 looks reasonable. I don't think you need to take the 2/3 approach for up north due to ratios, but apply the 1/3 discount for MA. Gives me about 8, Ray about 6 and 128 about 3 and Boston about an inch or two. I do think ASH gets a foot, and HubbDave, Dendrite and Gene a foot+ up to 18"

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Depends where...I think the NW half of RI could be in for a huge paste job.

How pasty is the paste job? How much in the way of power issues? 

[TalcottWx]

Sounds like Will and Scott are locking in TSSN And a foot at BOS 

[WxBlue]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I use that.

It's like less-powerful version of Photoshop mixing together with basic Microsoft Paint. Perfect for clean graphics. 

[1985 Polar Bear]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am still baffled why NWS and area mets went all in on a GFS NAM combo before Ukie Euro came out then found ways to discount both. Very baffled ,

They’re just like a general fighting the last war.

[Ginx snewx]

For the Western peeps Tandy Andy's cast

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MarkO said:

NAM map 10:1 looks reasonable. I don't think you need to take the 2/3 approach for up north due to ratios, but apply the 1/3 discount for MA. Gives me about 8, Ray about 6 and 128 about 3 and Boston about an inch or two. I do think ASH gets a foot, and HubbDave, Dendrite and Gene a foot+ up to 18"

If I get 6" or less, I'll change my screen name to MarkO Jr.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

How pasty is the paste job? How much in the way of power issues? 

I have a feeling there is def going to be a swath of decent power outages. Not the extent of Halloween 2011 or anything, but maybe something a little more robust than 2/5/16

[Hoth]

Lot of excited weenies in the MA forum jubilantly reporting unexpected snow.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, Hoth said:

Lot of excited weenies in the MA forum jubilantly reporting unexpected snow.

The surface low ejecting off the coast looks way south and east to me on meso analysis but I'm not certain. 

 

Transitioning to the desktop. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have a feeling there is def going to be a swath of decent power outages. Not the extent of Halloween 2011 or anything, but maybe something a little more robust than 2/5/16

I think from downtown Boston out to rt 128 could be at greatest risk for power disruption.

[snowman21]

Light snow beginning here

[tavwtby]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

For the Western peeps Tandy Andy's cast

I'll take the 12-18"... although I was thinking 10-14 alk along with lollis

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have a feeling there is def going to be a swath of decent power outages. Not the extent of Halloween 2011 or anything, but maybe something a little more robust than 2/5/16

I'm thinking similar to that second storm in the duple event of December 1996

[MarkO]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I get 6" or less, I'll change my screen name to Mark O Jr.

Junior. forget your dreams, set your expectations low and live for the over producer.

Maybe you get in on the coastal front and and slant stick 7"

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm thinking similar to that second storm in the duple event of December 1996

No way.

I got like 2.5" and a flash to rain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Junior. forget your dreams, set your expectations low and live for the over producer.

Maybe you get in on the coastal front and and slant stick 7"

Noted.

[CoastalWx]

Rgem pastes right to Boston practically.

[WintersComing]

Great hit on the Reggie

[ariof]

RGEM over the BM, keeps RA/SN line right over BOS? That's … different.

Really shanks the Greens.

[wx2fish]

RGEM definitely is well east, looks wide of ACK to me

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

The surface low ejecting off the coast looks way south and east to me on meso analysis but I'm not certain. 

 

Transitioning to the desktop. 

Unisys 3hr pres drop has it off mid NC coast

SPC meso wind direction put it around same

NAM does not look far off to me, but good pickup, this is gonna be fun tracking thru the night... I think the further south --> later capture --> further east track