AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Second storm looks good, our best scenario is end of strong -NAO, retrograding block. Northern Hemisphere has cooled down a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Blocking sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol 516DM h5... Closed at 5, yes, 5 contours as it rumbles by at 324 Maybe PSU gave up on this pattern to quickly LOL I was trying your go back to being pessimistic method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Good God at this run. This is like Becs territory at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Since 2000, there have been 5 times with -NAO block March 1-7. All 5 had >150dm 500mb anomaly near Greenland March 8-31 mean. I'd say it's like 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z GEFS lit up for the 6th-8th threat. Hive mind at play most likely. Let's see if it continues at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 P002 out weenied the gfs by far. 60hr storm part II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ji was complaining about not seeing high snow means and pretty colors over his backyard on the ensembles. He might want to check out the 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Ji was complaining about not seeing high snow means and pretty colors over his backyard on the ensembles. He might want to check out the 18z GEFS Out of the 20 members how many drop snow for the 6th - 8th time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Ji was complaining about not seeing high snow means and pretty colors over his backyard on the ensembles. He might want to check out the 18z GEFS Purples creeping into the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Out of the 20 members how many drop snow for the 6th - 8th time frame? Eyeballing accumulations map (since the panels are all at different times basically) and I see 15/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Eyeballing accumulations map (since the panels are all at different times basically) and I see 15/20 Thank you Wow that's nice. Didn't expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Too bad it's an off run that we have to toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This is probably the best inside of 8 day spread we've had all winter....but we toss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is probably the best inside of 8 day spread we've had all winter....but we toss... I know you're being sarcastic, but I really am tossing it...until I see at least 2 or 3 runs in a row. Then I'll take it seriously. The GFS changes every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 here's the 12z eps meteo for gburg. Not nearly as bullish as the gefs but certainly keeps me interested in next week. Hopefully it keeps improving until I'm shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, gymengineer said: March 14-15 1999 was 1.10" liquid for 5.4" of snow at IAD. 13.3" at Martinsburg in that one. Really would love a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I know you're being sarcastic, but I really am tossing it...until I see at least 2 or 3 runs in a row. Then I'll take it seriously. The GFS changes every 6 hours. I liked the 12z eps run. The solutions that worked werent crazy IVTs or jacked up tracks that shouldn't snow. The ones that worked looked similar to the gfs/gefs. We're still a few days away from taking it seriously but for right now this one has legit potential. Should be at least one more chance before climo fight hard or the block breaks down. I have a hunch that someone in our sub gets a decent event in the next 2 weeks with elevation and the northern tier being the obvious favored spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just when I start oiling up the fishing reels....the gfs drags me back in. Really want something legit to track....I miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'll take E14 on the GEFS snowmap and call it a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Like the 18z icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Like the 18z icon Because of the h5 at 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Because of the h5 at 120?500mb low appeared headed not north of us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The last time we had a -AO this strong was Dec 2010, and the NAO came back 2 weeks later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 52 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I know you're being sarcastic, but I really am tossing it...until I see at least 2 or 3 runs in a row. Then I'll take it seriously. The GFS changes every 6 hours. I agree with caution. We can hope the gfs picked up on something that just got resolved at 18z. But it's not like this was out of the blue. The setup is there. Like I said get that h5 low south or north a bit...in this case it shifted south and boom. But that trend was there on all guidance 18z just made the final jump. Hopefully we turned a corner here. It is at the range where stuff has come into focus a lot lately. Just usually not in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Nice signal for the 7th - 9th on the GEFS. 14 of 20 get 2”+ at DC during the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with caution. We can hope the gfs picked up on something that just got resolved at 18z. But it's not like this was out of the blue. The setup is there. Like I said get that h5 low south or north a bit...in this case it shifted south and boom. But that trend was there on all guidance 18z just made the final jump. Hopefully we turned a corner here. It is at the range where stuff has come into focus a lot lately. Just usually not in a good way. I don't trust it one bit. And I won't go into detail lest I be called a debbie downer. There is zero excitement on my end. I got excited two nights ago when it showed a storm, even when I knew better. Screw the GFS. There is zero doubt in my mind that tonight will show a weak frontal passage with sprinkles at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 A +500dm -PNA is quite a force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Its actually not a complicated scenario if u think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Not bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.