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-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco


WeatherFeen2000

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

No snow for anyone in the northeast except for some in PA

 

If only we had cold air in place

We've never had cold air and that's why trying to reason with you is the equivlent of talking to the wall.

The only hope of anyone around here seeing snow is if this bombs out close to the coast and dynamic cooling takes over. I'm not even sure Mt. Pocono sees much snow, especially if that CCB stays offshore.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed, but more of a dreary standard cold rain storm than something memorable

there is too much hype going on about this storm as of now considering guidance has reduced the impact to the area considerably - BUT still time for change

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is rain for eveyone in the northeast 

there is snow in parts of NY State and New England

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Let me ask you  knowledgeable people a question I see that the guidance is more South as of now but I believe "many" of this years storms have all shifted North and West especially within 24 hours ,,,,,,granted cold air not being in place is a BIG problem but is it too late to call this DOA with 48 plus hours to go ? Also " IF"this system is in and out fast say by Friday night how will that effect system #2 around Tuesday / Wednesday ?

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41 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Barring a last minute surprise, I think we can say "next".  Coastal flooding still needs watching, but this is rain down the drain. 

It was never supposed to be a snowstorm. Models still show a strong coastal storm, latest Canadian has a sub 970 mb low near the BM, so that's nothing to sneeze at. 

Actually if the storm evolved the way the Canadian shows, the thermals would be much colder in that CCB. We'd probably see some snow. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

No snow for anyone in the northeast except for some in PA

 

If only we had cold air in place

If there's going to be heavy snow anywhere in this it'll be in New England. Their longitude helps by allowing heavy precip to make it back from the bombing low, and their latitude helps from cold air being closer by and the primary not torching that far. Down here we need much more to happen. Some of these bombing solutions have some lighter snow coming through to the coast at the end, but I doubt it accumulates much and it would be after 95% of it falls as rain. This isn't an evolution that favors our area for snow. It's more like a 4/1/97 and 12/11/92 evolution. 

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If there's going to be heavy snow anywhere in this it'll be in New England. Their longitude helps by allowing heavy precip to make it back from the bombing low, and their latitude helps from cold air being closer by and the primary not torching that far. Down here we need much more to happen. Some of these bombing solutions have some lighter snow coming through to the coast at the end, but I doubt it accumulates much and it would be after 95% of it falls as rain. This isn't an evolution that favors our area for snow. It's more like a 4/1/97 and 12/11/92 evolution. 

Both of those events delivered big time up here... I don't see that happening this time around

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16 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

This is my thinking right now 

C8570D76-72D3-4E71-8202-83C9DEE880FE.jpeg

I would take that snow area north by about 100 miles. Also any snow will be relegated to areas above 2,000’. So the hill tops of the berks and the mountains of the Catskills and southern greens. The upsloap flow will produce big time for the highest elevations. 

This still has major to possibly serious coastal impacts. There is a huge easterly fetch that extends well out into the Atlantic. That will act to increase tides and build huge waves that will cause beach erosion

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50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It was never supposed to be a snowstorm. Models still show a strong coastal storm, latest Canadian has a sub 970 mb low near the BM, so that's nothing to sneeze at. 

Actually if the storm evolved the way the Canadian shows, the thermals would be much colder in that CCB. We'd probably see some snow. 

The evolution shown on the Canadian guidance is probably why the 12z RGEM is currently a major outlier (where NYC sees 2" snow and nearby suburbs see 4" or more). That solution appears to be unlikely right now. Further, the storm is outside the RGEM's skillful range.

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The evolution shown on the Canadian guidance is probably why the 12z RGEM is currently a major outlier (where NYC sees 2" snow and nearby suburbs see 4" or more). That solution appears to be unlikely right now. Further, the storm is outside the RGEM's skillful range.

Snowman should be all over that model along with WeatherFEEN to back their snowstorm forecasts

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1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

This is my thinking right now 

C8570D76-72D3-4E71-8202-83C9DEE880FE.jpeg

I'd move all of that north and east. Boston has a better chance at seeing 6" or more than Orange County because the dynamics may set up in time for them and cold air will be more readily available. Valley locations will also be shadowed and see a lot less because of the easterly flow which will downslope those areas. Therefore, Albany and Springfield may not see much either. The best places to be for this may be the Berkshires, Worcester area and S NH/NE MA. 

On the snow side of this, the conversation will be much more about New England than anyone in this subforum. And possibly I-90 well upstate from the initial primary low which totally screws us down here with warm air. 

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

First Guess - Inside light blue non-accumulating snow or light accumulations, Inside dark blue, potential for accumulating snows.

sketched_5a959e707f322.png

That 32 degree line I don't agree with because northern Most Bergen County is on the warm side of it and far southern NJ is on the colder side of it plus the light blue line should be extended into interior northern NJ

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