Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco


WeatherFeen2000

Recommended Posts

Hate to say it but the Euro is likely eye candy. An inverted trough-esque outcome like that is unlikely. What’s more likely is a consolidated storm closer to the coast that has worse overall impacts with wind and rain but unfortunately for us also the colder air and snow further north for the worst of it. The back end could be snow for the coast from the upper air low, but it wouldn’t be significant. Maybe there could be a few inches if it’s heavier and it falls at night. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF and now NAM following the 12z RGEM's shift toward a wet snow event, especially north and west of the City suggests that this event requires attention. My confidence in mostly a rain event in the City and some accumulation in the City's far northern and western suburbs has diminished somewhat. We'll see what tonight's guidance shows, though the GFS's remaining an outlier should a colder consensus develop wouldn't be all that surprising.

Here's your CCB

sketched_5a95c51b3f423.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, snywx said:

Agreed. I do have alittle more confidence that snow will be falling up here now though. I think @Animal has the best shot at anything significant 

Exactly, this is the storm where his extra 1000’ mean much more then normal. I think you have a good shot at at least some accumulations too. The city... yeah not so much

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hate to say it but the Euro is likely eye candy. An inverted trough-esque outcome like that is unlikely. What’s more likely is a consolidated storm closer to the coast that has worse overall impacts with wind and rain but unfortunately for us also the colder air and snow further north for the worst of it. The back end could be snow for the coast from the upper air low, but it wouldn’t be significant. Maybe there could be a few inches if it’s heavier and it falls at night. 

The NAM has a full fledged CCB that actually looks underdeveloped to me on the NW side of the 500mb low considering the dynamics in place and a sub 980mb low.

Look how strong the 500mb winds are on Friday afternoon. Strong precipitation should be falling Friday morning which will help to dynamically cool.

sketched_5a95c5f162999.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hate to say it but the Euro is likely eye candy. An inverted trough-esque outcome like that is unlikely. What’s more likely is a consolidated storm closer to the coast that has worse overall impacts with wind and rain but unfortunately for us also the colder air and snow further north for the worst of it. The back end could be snow for the coast from the upper air low, but it wouldn’t be significant. Maybe there could be a few inches if it’s heavier and it falls at night. 

 

Would agree, but the NAM is 4"-6"+ for NYC/LI and more snow backing in at hour 84.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Don't look now, but the models could be trending to a snowier solution. Early March storms are finicky and I wouldn't put stock in any solution this far out. I also wouldn't rule anything out.

Yeah, are you old enough to remember this gem?

Almost 17 years to the day. Wow is that look at H5 similar. Even has the big trough into California. This is a great example of what could go wrong with this setup.

030600.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The NAM has a full fledged CCB that actually looks underdeveloped to me on the NW side of the 500mb low considering the dynamics in place and a sub 980mb low.

Look how strong the 500mb winds are on Friday afternoon. Strong precipitation should be falling Friday morning which will help to dynamically cool.

sketched_5a95c5f162999.png

 

Hopefully we can get the upper air system to bomb a little faster so the dynamics kick in sooner and we can cool enough for snow. If it waits until it’s south of Cape Cod, it won’t do much good here. That’ll bring in some back end snow, but the heavy stuff will be north of here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully we can get the upper air system to bomb a little faster so the dynamics kick in sooner and we can cool enough for snow. If it waits until it’s south of Cape Cod, it won’t do much good here. That’ll bring in some back end snow, but the heavy stuff will be north of here. 

I'm hoping for whatever solution delivers the most rain and wind to my backyard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A possible outcome if the NAM is right is something like the 3/7/13 storm, which was an easterly flow-driven massive snow event in SNE, and a moderate event down to NYC with several inches for most (if I recall it right). It's just really hard for me to see a way this can be a significant snow event anywhere near the coast with what we have to work with. Something like 2-4" can happen if we get lucky with wraparound snow from the upper low. This is essentially what the NAM has here, after a push of rain initially brings an inch or so, then a dryslot and wraparound. The upper air system as a whole is too far north (which would cause a dryslot to come in) and doesn't mature in time. It's essentially a late developing miller B off a primary that cuts to Erie. Can't think of really any good snow outcomes for NYC off that. 

It is likely better for northern areas that are elevated, which are right on the line for something more significant. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

A possible outcome if the NAM is right is something like the 3/7/13 storm, which was an easterly flow-driven massive snow event in SNE, and a moderate event down to NYC with several inches for most (if I recall it right). It's just really hard for me to see a way this can be a significant snow event anywhere near the coast with what we have to work with. Something like 2-4" can happen if we get lucky with wraparound snow from the upper low. This is essentially what the NAM has here, after a push of rain initially brings an inch or so, then a dryslot and wraparound. The upper air system as a whole is too far north (which would cause a dryslot to come in) and doesn't mature in time. It's essentially a late developing miller B off a primary that cuts to Erie. Can't think of really any good snow outcomes for NYC off that. 

It is likely better for northern areas that are elevated, which are right on the line for something more significant. 

The solution the NAM is showing is ludicrous.  But it’s the 18z NAM. It will look 180 degrees different at 0z. It’s the NAM being the NAM and there will be a lot of disappointed people tonight

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah, are you old enough to remember this gem?

Almost 17 years to the day. Wow is that look at H5 similar. Even has the big trough into California. This is a great example of what could go wrong with this setup.

030600.png

The March 2001 storm was the biggest bust I've ever seen. Was working as a waitor at the OG back then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The solution the NAM is showing is ludicrous.  But it’s the 18z NAM. It will look 180 degrees different at 0z. It’s the NAM being the NAM and there will be a lot of disappointed people tonight

Everyone knows how I feel about the NAM but I'm just wondering why you feel it's ludicrous. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Everyone knows how I feel about the NAM but I'm just wonder why you feel it's ludicrous. 

The whole evolution. Heavy overrunning rains, then dry slot, then wraparound epic CCB? I think not. How often have we actually seen this happen? I mean do you actually believe that evolution? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The whole evolution. Heavy overrunning rains, then dry slot, then wraparound epic CCB? I think not. How often have we actually seen this happen? I mean do you actually believe that evolution? 

There are intense dynamics here, so common sense and analogs can’t really be used a source of analysis. The omega and saturated column on the 18z NAM is conducive for evaporational cooling and heavy precipitation. The GFS’s thermal profiles are also consistently questionable, and its capabilities in regards to forecasting strong cutoff EC cyclones are not great. Earlier this winter the NAM vastly outperformed the GFS due to its superior handle on dynamics and banding, which were incremental to the development of that system. 

And yes, I believe (as well as other meteorologists and respected hobbyists) that the 18z NAM supplied a plausible solution that should be taken into account. Throwing out the NAM with basically no scientific analysis is foolish, especially when it has performed well with a major storm a month ago. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The whole evolution. Heavy overrunning rains, then dry slot, then wraparound epic CCB? I think not. How often have we actually seen this happen? I mean do you actually believe that evolution? 

It did take a step towards the Euro at 500mb.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...