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-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco


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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

That 32 degree line I don't agree with because northern Most Bergen County is on the warm side of it and far southern NJ is on the colder side of it plus the light blue line should be extended into interior northern NJ

Feel free to make your own forecast, this is mine. And I didn't draw the 32 degree line.

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is almost like an inverted trough. The actual SLP is hundreds of miles offshore.


Umm cmc is the best model and is close to the Euro solution to this except it shows rain but all the columns are cold enough for snow. I'll be back tomorrow with my other 5 posts and post away I still think we get a good hit out of this. I would extend that hit a little more northeastward though. This is a blue bomb guys right off the coast off long island and it will throw a tone of moisture to especially our area which will eventually dynamically cool us and snow! You will snow with big ads flakes and accumulate expect all models to catch up a low loop like my map shows starting tomorrow

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It appears to be unlikely. The column is marginally cold (850 mb temperature ranging from a few tenths of a degree below 0°C to a few tenths of a degree above) and surface temperatures in and around the city around +2.0°C.

What is the euro showing for Orange County ? On the phone so no access.. thanks don

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For purposes of comparison with the 2/27/2018 12z ECMWF, below is the 12z RGEM, which also is a snowy outlier.

For perspective, the air mass involved is not nearly as cold at the mid- and upper-levels as was the case during the historic April Fool’s snowstorm of 1997 in southern New England and interior sections of this subforum. The difference is about 2°C.

Therefore, at this point in time, I don’t think either the RGEM or ECMWF solutions are likely outcomes. I believe either solution is very unlikely right now. A scenario where a cold rain mixes occasionally with snow and sleet in the City (and nearby suburbs) and some accumulation occurs across far northwestern New Jersey and eastward across Orange and Dutchess Counties is not out of the question. Wetter and warmer solutions are also very much on the proverbial table.



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10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Seriously. Probably less then 5% chance of verifying. Although a period of wet snow does appear a little more likely.   

Explain why ?

I have been on the snow train for a while. This pattern does support the Euro idea. Now the SREFea are jumping aboard.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

NAM is improved. Crippling, damaging snowstorm for Western New England. We get the CCB with marginal temps.

The ECMWF and now NAM following the 12z RGEM's shift toward a wet snow event, especially north and west of the City suggests that this event requires attention. My confidence in mostly a rain event in the City and some accumulation in the City's far northern and western suburbs has diminished somewhat. We'll see what tonight's guidance shows, though the GFS's remaining an outlier should a colder consensus develop wouldn't be all that surprising.

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