March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

[JC-CT]

That's a good start to 12z.

[CTWeatherFreak]

What' a thousand miles between friends:

[CoastalWx]

That's a good hit for ern areas, hell SNE too.

[Ginx snewx]

10 hours ago, Hazey said:

Hey who couldn't use a day off. Besides not spring here anyway with 7" of paste that fell today.

Hmm thought that was Leo's 

[ORH_wxman]

Another close call. Seen a lot of that. You can see the potential but the tight window doesn't give much room for error. 

[Ginx snewx]

12 Z runs of our lives,literally for some.

[Damage In Tolland]

Plenty of room and time . She coming

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Another close call. Seen a lot of that. You can see the potential but the tight window doesn't give much room for error. 

I feel like we say that for almost every storm in the Day 3 / 3.5 range

[weathafella]

NAM hits some of us pretty nicely.   Let’s  hope the real models follow suit.   This is also a cold event particularly for this time of year.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like powder instead of paste 

[NorEastermass128]

Feeling this is the coast’s turn for jackpotting. 

[JBinStoughton]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Feeling this is the coast’s turn for jackpotting. 

It would be about time this winter

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like powder instead of paste 

Please , trees like this next door all over. Going to cost me 2800 to remove 7 massive damaged Oaks and Maples

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Another close call. Seen a lot of that. You can see the potential but the tight window doesn't give much room for error. 

it's starting to look like the January southern stream bomb ...  where the N/stream more than less dictates the track of the deep layer entity more so than actually phases. 

Regardless of degree of phasing and that junk ... this does do a similar antic of deepening madly at unusual southern latitudes.  Folks may or may not recall a lot of consternation over the actual pressure depth being reached at those early latitudes, as to the modeling back prior to that January blizzard, and well ... it certainly verified deeply. 

This is similar ... perhaps even synoptically to that.  fascinating.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

It would be about time this winter

More like the Cape. The EMA coast did fine and is AN.

[Hazey]

Hmm thought that was Leo's 

A cats whisker in track made the difference. Hard to predict that unless you're god. Still missed the meat. He did alright.

[Bostonseminole]

should we start a separate thread for this one?  maybe Kev or Tip or hazey

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Hazey said:

A cats whisker in track made the difference. Hard to predict that unless you're god. Still missed the meat. He did alright.

Looked like you would get some yesterday when we talked,  nice 

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay ...so there's enough difference here to be more on the poor side of a total analog ... for one, the surrounding medium back in January was still being plagued by very fast flow and effectively 'too much of a good thing' with deep cold heights so deep that the surrounding balanced flow was utterly screaming in rage ...

It's really more the behavior in this run of early and fast development rate alone, if perhaps coming to pass by coincidence. 

One thing I am noticing here over all, regardless of model actually ... the issue is that there is a wave-frequency problem between the N/stream and S/streams.  The S/stream is moving too fast ...out -pacing the N/stream, which can't thusly phase.  It's like ... a comet orbiting the sun:  a pure phase is the comet crashing into the sun (pure N/stream subsume); a near miss phase or failures altogether are accelerating close passes, where in this case (completing the metaphor) the object (S/stream impulse) is sling shot around the N/stream gravity well...  interesting.

This is just observationally what appears to be happening for me. I don't know if this correctable ... or whatever, but.. the southern stream impulse is definitely outpacing the N/stream even in this more prodigious impact 12z NAM idea ... There is in fact only partial phasing in the sense that the N/stream is helping to dictate the track of the S/stream system, but it's really not capturing it at all. (Edit - the correction may come from correctly anticipating the western N/A ridge ironically) A more robust complexion with that would transitively influence the flow between 100 and 70 W longitudes over mid latitudes...effectively slowing it and everything in it, down..thus, allowing the diving N/stream to do it's magic... ).

The reason I am laboring the point is because ...that I suspect in this situation is really key to this event being sort of like what this solution has ... more or less, versus something much more serious.  I have a funny feeling ... don't shoot me, but I suspect this Euro run is going to be more substantial here.  Just a hunch -

Other than these points, the only real difference between the 06z and the 12z NAM runs is that the southern stream impulse is somewhere between 200 and 300 miles farther alone in longitude comparative. That's a big deal?  because the prior run being back west means that it is more so in destructive wave interference with the N/stream, which come hell or high water is coming down - that much is lock-step keyed into the +PNA spike well advertised to date.  We ain't gettin' outta dat much-a dis.  The repositioning of that little amount goes from destructive to modest constructive interference there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Please , trees like this next door all over. Going to cost me 2800 to remove 7 massive damaged Oaks and Maples

Looks like just a low growing white pine branch 

[Hazey]

Looks like a classic sne/Cape, NS snowstorm track instead of the looping into the gom like they have been. Airmass sucks but that's not unusual for this time of year. Smoke em if you got em.

 

[WintersComing]

34 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Feeling this is the coast’s turn for jackpotting. 

Please don't start stealing people's snow already lol

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Other than these points, the only real difference between the 06z and the 12z NAM runs is that the southern stream impulse is somewhere between 200 and 300 miles farther alone in longitude comparative. That's a big deal?  because the prior run being back west means that it is more so in destructive wave interference with the N/stream, which come hell or high water is coming down - that much is lock-step keyed into the +PNA spike well advertised to date.  We ain't gettin' outta dat much-a dis.  The repositioning of that little amount goes from destructive to modest constructive interference there. 

Yeah, it was really close to getting out ahead of the northern stream so the northern stream can dig behind it and allow it to turn up the coast. Not much more needed from that depiction. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 It's hard to take much interest in this one for WNE folks.   I'll give it until 0z  before I stick the fork in it.   Still hoping to squeeze in one more event to get me to average for the season.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

gfs is tastey early.

[CoastalWx]

Oh boy.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Big hit incoming.

[CoastalWx]

This will be good. Srn vort is sharper. Not a phase, but gets pulled up east side of nrn stream s/w.

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy

[#NoPoles]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Writing to the general reader here ... a "straw-man argument"

Those bold words above are about all this system has in support, which is typically a signal that many have trouble wrapping their heads around in lieu of actually seeing a stem-wound beauty of a cyclone on the charts. However, one way or the other, the teleconnections win.  Sorry ... I don't personally feel very comfortable using the UKMET as a deterministic fall-back at any time ( it does have support as suggested below).

These teleconnector curves and/or numbers ...they are not just numbers that we associated to certain meanings ... They actually are, for all intents and operations, reflecting mass distribution - literally... For example, if the NAO numbers are "down", there must by physical law be counter-balancing regions of mass that either alone or in the aggregate sum up to equal and opposite amount of "up."  Simple precept:  Mass is neither lost or destroyed in the ongoing maelstrom of the planetary system's circulation.  

Understanding that probably provides also the seeds to understanding what is meant by a "corrective event."  ...If one of these indexes, say the PNA were to enter a period of time where the numbers are changing ...that means that the counter-balancing mass fields to the PNA (usually internally, around the edges, or nearby adjacently) will also then forced to enter a period(s) of adjustment.  If a static synoptic atmosphere, conditions enter a calm state, but when perturbed by said forcing ... that "disturbs" said rested state = coastal ..or tornado...or whatever.

That's at the root of it all really... at all scales for that matter.  The sun heats the air mass over the interior land regions on a summer day until  it becomes buoyant; that air starts to rise (that's akin to a teleconnector entering a phase change); the rising air instantiates a surface return flow of cooler stable oceanic boundary layer air to replace it.  This response/balancing mechanism cools the coast.  Thus, one would say, 'there is teleconnection that signals cooling on the coast' with the onset of a sea breeze.  One regions mass was perturbed, and the a conjoining region was forced to change. We just don't label teleconnections for all scales, intents or purposes in that manner.

Where we do is at the grander scope of hemispheric Meteorology... If the PNA is forced to significantly alter its phase state ... there is a teleconnection over N/A accordingly.  

So ..the reason I am going through all this is because we may very well not receive a meaningful impact event this week, despite the PNA change ... despite all this arguing for a 'corrective event'.  However, there is a storm system that is going to evolve - that much is clear, and much to perhaps the chagrin of the hopefuls.  Don't conflate missing out on a storm/disappointment therein, as some sort of failure in all this.  We are not defeating the physical laws of mass distribution in the atmosphere when one is not happy with the outcome. It may seem obvious or silly to say.. .but, I've often read disgruntled people try to blame teleconnector adherence as some sort of set up for their misfortune, when it was the ...channeling of model cinema and/or storms for their happiness that was the real problem. 

There's also a question of thresholds, too.  A region can be perturbed, but not enough.  In this situation, however, I'd estimate changing the PNA from - 3 SD to +1.5 is probably enough, and well .. every GEFs member has 'some' kind of storm.. Again, impacting NE is not really a physical prerequisite for satisfying the above theoretical application. 

Just remember ... the "boxing day storm" ... that one was flattened down to pancake wave status ...and didn't come back until it was 36 hours out.  T

You did so well, and then you dropped that, and that is all the weenies will run away with..."Tip thinks the Boxing Day Storm is an analog. It's coming!!!"