Chrisrotary12 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 If we end up with a strung out weak system as advertised this could be a scenario where it snows for 36 hrs and in the end everyone picks up like 3-6" that melts the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: If we end up with a strung out weak system as advertised this could be a scenario where it snows for 36 hrs and in the end everyone picks up like 3-6" that melts the next day. Or everyone melts after only picking up 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Have no idea what the heck you are talking about Its your sybian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Def sounds like a potential beast, but we will see if potential is realized. You could be head deep at SR. Edit meteocentre Doesnt Have last nite ukie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: If we end up with a strung out weak system as advertised this could be a scenario where it snows for 36 hrs and in the end everyone picks up like 3-6" that melts the next day. People looking at central pressure? Huh looks very juicy with lots of inflow 6Z isn't out yet but wanna bet it's even more anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GEFS mean is 8 to 10 across all SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I don’t know where pickles is getting his Euro blather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I don’t know where pickles is getting his Euro blather. I looked back at EPS and op runs, man a run here or there was off but seems to me it was pretty spot on final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I looked back at EPS and op runs, man a run here or there was off but seems to me it was pretty spot on final outcome Even at twice a day, that's 10 runs from day 5 in. One run or two is bound to spit the bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t know where pickles is getting his Euro blather. Well if you were looking at the weenie snow maps you'd think it was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Oh this ones coming and hard at that. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 9 hours ago, henry1978 said: October 2 1978, Yankees lead the Red sox 5-4. Bottom of the ninth, two men on, one man out. League MVP Jim Rice steps up to the plate facing Goose Gossage. Gossage has absolutely nothing and is struggling on every pitch. Jim Rice swings and goes deep to right. It would've been a home run in Yankee Stadium where it's 353 feet but at Fenway its a long out and Yaz then pops out to end the game. This entire game is on youtube. all anyone ever talks about is bucky dent but truth be told It's one of the best baseball games ever played and the mid 70s red sox turned boston from a hockey town into a baseball town. The game was broadcast on tv 38 with the hawk ken harrelson, abc with Keith Jackson but YouTube has the Yankee Wpix feed with Phil Rizzuto going all Archie Bunker on sox pitcher mike Torrez, Phil Rizzuto saying he thought a former red sox player was gonna bite him in the press box when bucky dent hit the home run. You'll notice the pace of play and how fast it was. No banging spikes with the bat a la nomar, no stepping out of the box a la jeter, no adjusting elbow pads a la arod, no taking off ankle pads, Fisk and Munson weren't walking to the mound every 30 seconds. no ads all over fenway, no 600 club, no montster seats, no loud music. Just sherm feller, an organ and 33 thousand fans watching one of the greatest sporting events ever. many baseball games had historic moments. Mazeroski 1960 home run, Gibson home run, Fisk home run, buckner, boone, damon grand slam, Koufax, but nothing beats 1978. Mm... I that sounds like generational grandiosity ... it's natural to covet one's own as a humanly bias. Though it is getting increasingly rarefied to find any present culturally over-stimulated-into-A.D.D. 'younger folk' even capable of being transfixed by activities that require the focused attention of baseball's between-the-bleacher story-lines... , to those who are out there and were literally not a part of that former reality (...back in the last century ...) they probably annul events in a different degree of awe-factor. The first time ever in history, a team coming back from an 0-3 hole in a Championship Series, 2004 Red Sox vs the Yankees, to stun the entire cinematic audience of that particular show ...they prooooobably thinks that's pretty damn high on that list, if not arguable the best baseball story ever told. Because it wasn't just one game... it was sudden death in three consecutive games, each one have infinite proportioned stakes... It's like that one 1978 game, times three - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Suppression is real. Not worried about supression....larger concern may be that the system gets sheared apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not worried about supression....larger concern may be that the system gets sheared apart. Well, That really my point, If its weak its going to be south, And right now its pretty strung out with multiple waves on a boundary, Even the last piece looks to move north but its looks more SWFE'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Well, That really my point, If its weak its going to be south, And right now its pretty strung out with multiple waves on a boundary, Even the last piece looks to move north but its looks more SWFE'ish Gotcha. Yea, that is a risk with the -PNA....shearing...Tip's fav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not worried about supression....larger concern may be that the system gets sheared apart. You just agreed with Jerry that's it's coming and coming Hard? If you're concerned that it gets sheared...then it's not coming hard at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I don't see a sheared system but not a stemwinder either. I see lots of PWAT over an Arctic dome. Looks pretty prolific with progs of over 1 inch at 60% at lead. Long duration PD2 96 ish 993 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Well if you were looking at the weenie snow maps you'd think it was wrong. And those aren’t generated by the model source but many weenies forget that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Euro had that 1 burp run within 48 hrs, but otherwise did fine. For the most part a lot of guidance had a burp run, but the NAM did well overall IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro had that 1 burp run within 48 hrs, but otherwise did fine. For the most part a lot of guidance had a burp run, but the NAM did well overall IMO. Speaking of weenie snow maps the 3k NAM Kuchie day of was an almost replica of what happenned outside the Cape including the 55 at Woodford which had 48 last check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't see a sheared system but not a stemwinder either. I see lots of PWAT over an Arctic dome. Looks pretty prolific with progs of over 1 inch at 60% at lead. Long duration PD2 96 ish 993 or so There’s a limit to how far north this gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Euro was def slow to catch on with last system outside of D3...it was pretty far E. It did well inside of 48 hours though other than the one burp run. I'll point out though that it wasn't wrong in every system inside of D3 this month...the previous system (the obscene paste bomb on 3/7-8) it absolutely schooled other guidance showing the colder/east solution while the GFS and NAM were busy driving the low up Ginxy's fanny and jackpotting Oneonta, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a limit to how far north this gets ? Deets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a limit to how far north this gets 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Deets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not worried about supression....larger concern may be that the system gets sheared apart. In a base-line conceptual/teleconnection argument ... if you will, the NAO is reduced in the numbers. Thus, the eastern North American escape latitudes of the westerlies, which of course includes anything embedded in it ... , should all lift up the eastern seaboard. There are obviously other planetary wave structures in the large scope that play a role in said latitudes; but the NAO's sort of "back-logging" influence being alleviated some, might mean less having to rely upon a giant bomb's circumvallate to get storm influence far enough west to impact actual land - like the last eye-roller. Personally (...seeing as you asked and care so teary-eyed deeply what I have to say ...), I think that despite as prominent as those eye-pop snow totals were, and despite the knee-jerk vitriol this post is certainly going to ignite, ...that event had less of the "it" factor. It was like the super star athletic talent that only pads their own statistics into history. I suppose it is going to be hard to find that this late in the year, any year... so in fairness, we get what we get in March. But, 1888? That would cripple by any standards, any era, save perhaps some futuristic Sci-Fi weather control matrix world of technological utopia (where the dystopian hearts of the present company of snow angels have been cast to an eternal hell ..), which we are not. Although, in a sardonic sense of it... AGW is kind of like a weather control matrix ...just sloppy as hell. Heh I think the evidence of matters is that the regions of deeper snow were not that pervasive. Mainly, eastern zones, with pokadot gaps where bands didn't time right and all that crap. Our now defunct small sub-forum geographical area (we now include NNE in this...). But the state of Massivetwoschits is not a big area to begin with, and we're talking the eastern 1/3 of that space.. I have a special appreciation for the NESDIS scale developed by Kocin and Uccellini (check spl..), because it conveys the spatial impact necessity of these bragging rights... People are going to think violent thoughts of rage and resent toward this thinking ... because their backyard a-hole high stacks of snow, of course, must represent the entirety of everywhere. But, the cat needs to take it's head out of the bag and realize that the back 9/10th of it's ass was sticking out in mediocrity on this... There was something also weird about this snow, frankly. That may sound odd to say... but I wonder if the fact that this cyclone never really got closer than 250 naut miles ESE of ISP might have something to do about it. It was like large amounts of fluff, so massive that we managed 2.0" liquid (yes...perhaps more or less) falling into a near freezing surface. Impressive? Of course. However, if that storm was close we probably would have had a denser fall, spread out over a larger areas, but lower total "tallness" of the depth because the "stack efficiency" of the snow would have been less, yet at greater water content. We got basically 24" of snow out of 1.8" of liquid equivalence... In 1888, they probably got 4" of water at a colder temperature out west, out of a storm that was situated over ACK as opposed to like 300 nautical miles away but by circumstance of girth we got lucky. But I digress... Re next week: ...yesterday I amused that the modeling depictions on average was like a box that got sent down the assemble line that was missing its product. Last night's runs seem to put some of the parts. We may also just be too used to seeing deep bombs on these mid and extended range charts, and forget that sometimes...the place-holders are all we need until the lesser side of mid range starts stuffing them with the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yup. Glad we live here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: As usual... I’d say most options still on the table at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 If it's "only" a SWFE, that would be fine. Another 6-10" for the capper. And as others have noted (often), the sun angle is easily defeated by intensity. The anomalous coastal of 4/19/83 produced accumulating snow thru the middle of the day in NNJ, sun angle same as August 23rd. Yes, the nasty sun was gone, it affected Pineiella earlier in the game and stuck his glove out and got lucky. After 2004, those old memories fade. I forget who was on 1st when Remy came up, but that fellow should've made it to 3rd easily. Sure, he had to delay, waiting to see if the ball would be caught, but the Pinella lucky stab left Sweet Lou leaning back and facing the foul line, the worst possible position for a rightie to make a strong quick throw. A man on 3rd and Rice's fly ties the game. (IMO, the Maz game is right up there, in part due to the antecedents - 3 NY blowouts and 3 close wins by the Pirates. Then: 4-0 Pittsburgh! 7-4 NY! Pirates score 5 in the 8th! {assist to the Forbes IF], and Mantle eludes the tag to keep the top 9th alive while the tying run scores. Then...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: .Euro was def slow to catch on with last system outside of D3...it was pretty far E. It did well inside of 48 hours though other than the one burp run. I'll point out though that it wasn't wrong in every system inside of D3 this month...the previous system (the obscene paste bomb on 3/7-8) it absolutely schooled other guidance showing the colder/east solution while the GFS and NAM were busy driving the low up Ginxy's fanny and jackpotting Oneonta, NY. I believe that is a fair assesment Of euro in first paragraph I believe for scott ginxy and oldfella :), the euro could of gone to Bermuda and they would of said but but but it did fine w this. The OP struggled extremely. That crap run that nite day and a half out was a joke. Yes ensembles were much better. Thank goodness we got the swissy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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