ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya Trending progressive, Not a good thing for e areas The key is keeping that firehose north and not letting it sink SE too early after changeover. The good news is that we may have the famous 24h bump north a bit....that could really pay dividends...esp if we keep trending that antecedent airmass a bit colder. That would prolong the heavy snow for prob a good 6+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Look at Ryan.....just servin it up lol I did throw the GFS in the dumpster on air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The key is keeping that firehose north and not letting it sink SE too early after changeover. The good news is that we may have the famous 24h bump north a bit....that could really pay dividends...esp if we keep trending that antecedent airmass a bit colder. That would prolong the heavy snow for prob a good 6+ hours. Despite trending a bit more progressive, it did bump total QPF north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS clownage has 2" spot now near Taunton...that's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I do still think there is a pretty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The key is keeping that firehose north and not letting it sink SE too early after changeover. The good news is that we may have the famous 24h bump north a bit....that could really pay dividends...esp if we keep trending that antecedent airmass a bit colder. That would prolong the heavy snow for prob a good 6+ hours. Some of us need a 75 mile bump north. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 lol even with a mega block we can’t get a system to hang around...something always comes along to push these things out.. too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I do still think there is a pretty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. Not at all...I know I gambled on first call, but went with my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I do still think there is a pretty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. That's what Harvey said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ihelpstill think there is a pre tty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. Exactly That 400' your at is gonna Help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: lol I did throw the GFS in the dumpster on air Well done. Afraid public (those who tune somehwre else) will be caught off guard as friday progresses and be completely fabrigasted when it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: lol even with a mega block we can’t get a system to hang around...something always comes along to push these things out.. too bad. The block is at least preventing this from being a 60F rainstorm where the low tracks into Ottawa...it's pretty impressive how this thing gets muscled from near Lake Erie to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I do hope I'm not too near the n edge considering it will begin to sink....that would blow if the heavy snow here was truncated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: lol I did throw the GFS in the dumpster on air HAHA.....I had you guys on but volume on mute.....so all I saw was a lot of maps and GFS and Euro icons with pressure bars......seemed like you were really dealing there.....good luck with the 3-6 call here......hope you bust low.....haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well done. Afraid public (those who tune somehwre else) will be caught off guard as friday progresses and be completely fabrigasted when it flips. A certain station in our state has made no mention of the possibility of snow. Irresponsible and borderline dangerous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I's also add that pretty much all the models now are doing a full-fledged capture...and when that happens, we tend to stall things out a bit longer than guidance likes to do. It's not one of these half-capture deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The block is at least preventing this from being a 60F rainstorm where the low tracks into Ottawa...it's pretty impressive how this thing gets muscled from near Lake Erie to the benchmark. Oh sure...but something always saves us from the truly stalled system. I was never on board with a really long duration event...cuz they almost never happen/very rare. Kevin will be disappointed again, cuz he was thinking snow through daylight morning hours on Saturday lol..knew that wasn’t happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: lol even with a mega block we can’t get a system to hang around...something always comes along to push these things out.. too bad. Its always something right? Just give me a Feb 2013 please.....so great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I do hope I'm not too near the n edge considering it will begin to sink....that would blow if the heavy snow here was truncated. That is prob my main worry for you...but I do think in the end, we bump the firehose decently north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: A certain station in our state has made no mention of the possibility of snow. Irresponsible and borderline dangerous... Esp when the possibility is during the day - work and school.....and not like it will be flurries either if and when it happens. Turrable broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I do still think there is a pretty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. or maybe we get lucky, we snow starting ~9z Fri and the modeled warm layer around ~900-850 mb isn't real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I's also add that pretty much all the models now are doing a full-fledged capture...and when that happens, we tend to stall things out a bit longer than guidance likes to do. It's not one of these half-capture deals. Could you post a quick annotation illustrating what exactly a full capture looks like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That is prob my main worry for you...but I do think in the end, we bump the firehose decently north. That was how I hedged....banking on the northern edge getting up near PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Cmc and ukie are going to carry weight tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could you post a quick annotation illustrating what exactly a full capture looks like? This is Dec '92 animation...note how the surface low is basically "stuck" to the ULL...and even late in the game when another one tries to form east, it gets "captured" again and gets sucked back into the ULL. That's what captured is...you have the sfc low almost totally stacked intot he upper low and when that occurs, you tend to get an extra stall in the movement....even on a more progressive system (Dec '92 clarly was not progressive at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Whats ukie show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Currently planning to leave SE NC by noon tomorrow...heading for Scituate Light...for coverage of the coastal flooding. From there, I hope/anticipate to be documenting intense snowfall rates for Boston that evening (will adjust, if necessary). At the current time, I'd place the probability of blizzard conditions verifying (3 consecutive hours of blizzard criteria) at KBOS at less than 50%, due mainly to the density of the dendrites at peak conditions. It's the prospective devastating surge/tides, and their effects on the EMA coastline, that is enticing me to drive > 900 sm to document this event/storm...at greater than $1500 expense. Simply share this as an example of my confidence in the monumental impacts that may occur with a 12z EURO/00z NAM blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Whats ukie show cmc is way se of its previous runs. oh my bad, thought i saw you asking cmc too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Damn missed a thriller of a 0z NAM run and related disco... Quickly browsed through. I like your first call map Ray. For those of you not familiar, check out the maps for 3/31-4/1/97: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/index.html You don't need CIPS to see the remarkable similarities. One important difference is our current system exits southeast a little faster... but that's as currently depicted. We almost invariably get last minute north ticks with these anomalously dynamic systems. I also think this could stall a little longer depending on how multiple low configuration plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: cmc is way se of its previous runs. Looks like the cut off is near PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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