dryslot Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha true... not set in stone they do well in this one either out there. Hudson Valley is a big wildcard, like most of SNE. I would still rather be there for this with the primary moving thru and being away from the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 42f @2k in tannersville lmao plz say my car thermometer is broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Good point, but even loop the EURO 850mb temps and you can see a mix of both ideas. H85 temps warm from 6-12z but then it occludes and holds steady from 12-18z before falling quickly after that. Loop a bunch of model 850mb temps and you'll see that sort of evolution. It's not a lot of warmth but an extra 1-2C at 850mb will make a huge difference. Very interesting forecast for sure! Totally agreed...that is why I think we could see rain to snow to rain type deal in places. The degree of upward vertical motion which seems to coincide when profiles are marginal enough for snow indicate snow when things are going wild. This could be really problematic b/c it would be extremely wet but accumulating very quickly. For some stupid reason Oct 2011 keeps coming in my mind with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 39 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Meanwhile off topic, but this -NAO is resulting in a crazy storm in Ireland tonight. Dublin looking at 18 inches with up to 3 feet possible. Wut? Damn, that is huge for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think the winds underperform expectations here. HM thinks they over perform. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The NAM is a bit warmer through 12 hours than it was at 18z. also looks like it has two separate low centers...which could be messing with temps...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 NAM has cooled at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 could a Mod or Admin please combine the 2 obs threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Nam is interesting. It seems to have lowered the ceiling on 850mb temps but expanded the overall area over 0c. I'd argue this is a better look so far. Run not finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: NAM has cooled at 700mb. Hopefully it's onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 DAMN.... Winds on Outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 100 kt winds at 850 at 19z just off the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HM thinks they over perform. Interesting That's in the Mid Atlantic for the sting jet. I think we struggle around here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HM thinks they over perform. Interesting I know who I believe on this... Speaking of winds, definitely getting breezy in my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: DAMN.... Winds on Outer Cape. don't let James see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 For verification later on. Let's hope this over-performs, definitely going to be some weird snowfall distribution without a doubt either way! Send me your totals once it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Looks like ending CCB for E MA to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Also...storm cancel for me. I just bought gas for my snowblower and found shear pins... no snow for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: That's in the Mid Atlantic for the sting jet. I think we struggle around here in CT. I agree...the coast may get 50+ but inland maybe 40ish...nothing crazy. Haven''t seen much to think inland gets any higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 That's definitely a flip to heavy snow for the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 48F, looks like rain will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Can't see soundings but what a furnace aloft on the NAM compared to the morning runs. Doesn't flip ern areas until after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: DAMN.... Winds on Outer Cape. James will be the tail on Winnie the Pooh's kite. I considered going to the family house in Falmouth for this but Buzzards Bay won't be very exciting so I would end up having to drive 30 minutes to at least South Cape Beach in Mashpee to take it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 We are definitely warming aloft overnight. But it’s not like a SWFE where temps keep climbing. These will eventually cut off late tonight and the mid level air mass becomes stale. So it’s all about that stale air mass that we have to overcome. All modeling is showing rapid cooling aloft around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: 48F, looks like rain will be here soon. Wow, that's warm, I'm down to 39F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: That's definitely a flip to heavy snow for the east Still on track for right around 22-23z. it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just had a 32mph gust...winds are cranking already, wasn't expecting that until tomorrow morning at least... temp down to 43 Td @32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I wonder if how things tilt will play a significant role with regards to the warming. This is where I wish I was good at the calculus...and knew how to apply all those equations. It seems like a slight difference in how the system is tilted will make a big difference in the degree of warmth that works in...both at the sfc and llvl's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 NAM looks like the Euro with the distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 00z NAM cools the 925mb layer after 18z tomorrow, also the 3km NAM model had three bursts of high end wind gusts potentially for Cape Cod and the Islands Friday through Saturday, all with potential mixing to 100mph or greater with the mesolows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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