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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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Unlike most of you, I've only been following/forecasting/chasing NE winter storms since the blizzard of 3/26/14.  As a result, I've had to rely on familiarizing myself with the ambient climate, unique topographical effects, and the history of past major storms in this region, in order to augment my own knowledge derived from forecasting in the Carolina's.  On that note, reading the threads in this particular sub-forum has been invaluable.  As I learned long ago, experience is often times the best teacher; which is true in both meteorology, as well as in life.

At the current time, I favor a blend of the 12z EURO and the 00z Nam...which reminds me of the old EE rule, ironically.

Even though we are closing in on 24 hours before secondary development of low pressure S of LI, E of NJ, there's still ample time for very consequential modeled movement in the initial formation location of the secondary, its subsequent trajectory from there, and the thermal profiles at the lower levels.   

If anything, I expect a marginally more favorable evolution to transpire with the models and ultimately with verification, thereof.   

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