Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: That is solely GFS based though, so chip in some Euro and that knocks it down some. But still pushing 30 ft probably. Understood, I think there is a Euro Wave model, hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Saturday is gonna snow well into the daylight hours. Love long duration storms Definitely, unless you go by the Euro, or the GFS, or... Looks like early morning shut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: -2C 850 with N winds and its showing rain, is my point. Looks closer to 0C to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Understood, I think there is a Euro Wave model, hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Looks closer to 0C to me That looks like the 12z run at 48 hours...the map I posted earlier was 18z at 48 hours...it was def pretty cold aloft but still raining at that timestamp. That's a period that will end up being very crucial...model may underestimate the cooling effect of latent melting in extremely heavy precip....we'll have to see if it continues to be modeled the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro keeps 20 ft plus waves near Ema until Tuesday 18Z with NE winds, brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Looks closer to 0C to me Next frame brah on 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Understood, I think there is a Euro Wave model, hold on Yep. Coarse AF, but 25-30 foot tickling Cape Cod Bay, MA, USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That looks like the 12z run at 48 hours...he map I posted earlier was 18z at 48 hours...it was def pretty cold aloft but still raining at that timestamp. That's a period that will end up being very crucial...model may underestimate the cooling effect of latent melting in extremely heavy precip....we'll have to see if it continues to be modeled the same way. What a rookie mistake. Sorry RnYAWAYICEIE et al. This looks ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Yep. Coarse AF, but 25-30 foot tickling Cape Cod Bay, MA, USA. Yeah but how much snow? The next chapter depends on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Jesus the RGEM bring a meso low right into EMA near hr 54. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Thermal issues... Looks more like only like 5 hours of precip after mid levels crash issues....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus the RGEM bring a meso low right into EMA near hr 54. Holy crap. yeah its wild .. gets slingshotted back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus the RGEM bring a meso low right into EMA near hr 54. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, ma blizzard said: yeah its wild .. gets slingshotted back That is H force to EMA. Verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 We could have had a clean phased monster but a clusterfk can be just as fun to predict. Definitely some meso stuff going on, lots and lots of energy just like my 6 year old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Can someone help me understand this? What does the NWS know that we don't know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Definitely, unless you go by the Euro, or the GFS, or... Looks like early morning shut off. Step away from models. Look at past crushers like this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Semper911 said: Can someone help me understand this? What does the NWS know that we don't know? That it doesn't snow at 40F surface temps. This is wild though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Step away from models. Look at past crushers like this one GW sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: That it doesn't snow at 40F surface temps. This is wild though. Why are you so hung up on too warm modeled surface temps from bad thermal models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Intresting http://www.sailflow.com/map#38.84,-77.12,6,2,!42.1145:-69.6094 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Why are you so hung up on too warm modeled surface temps from bad thermal models? Because, they aren't 7 degrees too warm. This isn't a CAD situation. The airmass sucks. Congrats you, under 800' we rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is H force to EMA. Verbatim. yeah its crazy .. 90+ kt winds at 850. yikes also looks like a much slower solution compared to the other 18z guidance / euro. def in no rush to exit based off the last panel i see (54h) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is H force to EMA. Verbatim. Yeah 18z RGEM shows potential if the multiple low centers consolidate on the one closest to benchmark... prolonged and intense into eastern SNE Those thermal profiles though, wth... I can picture us all glued to the windows Friday afternoon (hopefully earlier) watching for signs of mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dpb1983 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m not sure. Models have offered pretty much every possible solution, but seem to be getting a clue finally. My coworkers are all expecting rain...I’m having trouble convincing them otherwise. Same, If they don’t see the pretty snow map on the news, then it’s not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: That it doesn't snow at 40F surface temps. This is wild though. The Catskills are going to get destroyed. Feet for those hill towns at 2,000ft there SW of ALB. They won't lose any to rain, IMO. Should start as pretty much snow there in the high terrain of NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Because, they aren't 7 degrees too warm. This isn't a CAD situation. The airmass sucks. Congrats you, under 800' we rain. This is going to be a slightly less version of April 97 snow amount wise. Expect minimum 6-8” there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 We're totally on our own with this one compared to the NWS and other local stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: The Catskills are going to get destroyed. Feet for those hill towns at 2,000ft there SW of ALB. They won't lose any to rain, IMO. Should start as pretty much snow there in the high terrain of NY. You got crucified for calling this an elevation event. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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