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Bob Chill

PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

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2 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Absurd, the two are not mutually exclusive. 

They get hot exhaust constantly on the tarmac.  It's always going to be an island of warmth.  But yeah, DCA isn't even even in DC.  It's in Alexandria.  

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1 hour ago, das said:

Wow!  All the best returns stayed south?

Edited to add:  Looks like it.  Clarksburg may have been the sweet spot on this one:

 

The Upper MoCo band lived today. Almost cracked 3", but I flipped to sleet for a time and ruined the chance. Still got about 2.6" as the total. I'll take that with this event. Snow caked on the trees bringing beauty to the night. 

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53 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

DCA will never be representative again until they move the obs location. It's basically irrelevant at this point.

DCA needs to stay to stay where it is and keep the name for aviation purposes.  We need to make another station at the National Mall kind of like central park in NYC.

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The Upper MoCo band lived today. Almost cracked 3", but I flipped to sleet for a time and ruined the chance. Still got about 2.6" as the total. I'll take that with this event. Snow caked on the trees bringing beauty to the night. 

My holly trees are literally resting their branches on my car

 

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2 hours ago, das said:

3.1” for the total here in Clarksburg.  All snow.  Nice little quick-hitter between 70F days. 

I'm ready for spring.  Hope we don't get any more snow or cold this ''winter'' unless we are gonna get a March '93 redux.  I'd like to torch and get a string of like 3 days in the low 80s in March.

2 hours ago, high risk said:

    yeah, it's been my experience that the snow depth maps can run low, but in these tough call events, they tend to be way better than the 10:1 maps.    In this case, the depth maps were underdone in central MD, but they sure told me that the 10:1 map idea of 6" in southern Howard and 3-5" for all of DC Metro and southern MD wouldn't be the way to go either.

    Even the Ferrier map was underdone, telling me that the NAM had the sleet line advancing north too quickly.     That seems plausible, as the initial thump stayed snowy longer and got cranking early, allowing a larger part of the area to start tallying up snow.

In events like this I used snow depth and Kuchera when forecasting my low and high range respectively.  It's almost spot on every time.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm ready for spring.  Hope we don't get any more snow or cold this ''winter'' unless we are gonna get a March '93 redux.  I'd like to torch and get a string of like 3 days in the low 80s in March.

In events like this I used snow depth and Kuchera when forecasting my low and high range respectively.  It's almost spot on every time.

I was pleasantly surprised to out perform the euro's Kuchera plots. Only becuase temps ended a few degrees colder and it made all the difference.

A good rule of thumb with 10:1 maps is to only consider them when it's below freezing well before onset and stays below for the entire event. Clean storms like that are more rare than ones like today.

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Well I took a little trip to Jefferson County tonight.

Yesterday I went to the casino and stayed all night, finally winning 240 dollars. However, I was very tired today and I managed to SLEEP RIGHT THROUGH ALL OF THE SNOW AND SLEET lmao. It turned out to be an afternoon delight and was over by 6pm lol.

We got a half inch of sleet and snow in Dale City, on car tops and on grass. Streets and sidewalks were just wet.

Well, I got on the Prince William Parkway then on Liberia then on Rt 28. Once I got past Dulles, I noticed slightly more snow on the fields I was passing. When I hit Rt 7, there was no doubt about it, there was more snow on the ground there by GWU and the Indoor Skydiving building. There also started to be snow on the roadsides as well. Once I went over the Skyway and got on the western part of Rt 7, you could see lots snow on trees. It was mostly wet snow here and likely very little sleet. Then I topped the hill and hit Rt 9. WOW what a winter wonderland! Wet snow had gotten onto everything! All i could say was wow wow wow wow wow wow wow wow! It was hard to believe all the snow ON SIDE ROADS! I topped that ridge where the state border is and they must have had three inches of fresh wet snow on the ground there! Just WOW! Then I descended into Charles Town, and it looked like probably an inch or so of snow on the ground. There was snow on trees there too. Western Virginia and West Virginia get some excellent weather compared to us in Dale City, lol. I love this place!

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8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

DCA. lol. What a joke. I hope LWX quality checks that measurement. 

There is actually a 1" total 2 miles WNW of DCA. You can't make this stuff up

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1 hour ago, Jebman said:

<snip>

I decided to take your advice and drive to the favored areas. Didn't feel like going all the way to Jefferson Co. so going to Leesburg seemed like a decent compromise. I needed to do some shopping so I decided to go to the Leesburg outlet mall. It started in the form of small hail & ice pellets and eventually turned into snow. I was out and around there for a few hours and as time went on, the flakes got bigger and the rates got faster. At around 4:30, grass and trees were covered in white and the roads were starting to be whitened as well. The drive back on R7 was amazing. I passed by the Indoor Skydiving like you did. Visibility was pretty low and the background was covered in white. A glorious site to behold. I got back home at around 6 when it started to change to rain. Measured about 1.2" at my place and was surprised I got that much. I fell asleep after lol

I could have taken more pictures if my phone didn't run out of battery on the drive back.

AgNfhqR.jpg

wk0c7Q4.jpg

vGLKfoG.jpg

bonus video:

 

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7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we didn't have those 5 hours of nuclear sun today I think a lot of folks would've gotten 3" - 5".

DCA claims it got .42 in precip, but only about .23 of that was listed as snow (actually quite a bit of sleet).  So I believe DCA measuring 0.2 snow.

At 100 feet here in Arlington, I got a cartopping of sleet, but it looks like the follow-on rain washed that away.  DCA stayed at 34 during the snow/sleet part, but sometimes I go out at that temperature and find slick spots.

So I believe the measurement of 1.0, map showing it as Grace Hopper Park.  (possibly grass/decorator snow).

 

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5 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Jeb  are you saying you got toasted  at CT and sleep thru a 30-90 minute pounding?

Sad, but true.

At least I won over 200 dollars at a dollar slot. I got a good fix on Rt 9 tonight though, at least 2 inches of snow there. Rt 9 was an absolute winter wonderland! Everything was plastered in beautiful wet snow! The trees looked spectacular in snow!

When you go to another location to get your snow fix, what happens is that you feel as though you had the amount of snow that you experienced there. I know I got a half inch of sleet in Dale City, that was mostly melted by 6am Sunday lol. But it FEELS AS THOUGH I EXPERIENCED A 2 INCH SNOWSTORM. I was there! I jebwalked in it, I even rolled in it and got soaked lmao!  It was dark and 3am, I am sure no one saw me lol.

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8 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Get you kicks with the snow this morning as it'll all be gone by afternoon

Yeah folks - Get out and sled in it, take jebwalks while it lasts! It is going to warm up and stay that way for a few days as we go to a (temporary) very frigid West/very warm/humid East alignment. Get your fixes NOW! Call in sick at work --- and go enjoy the snow! You will find it, the farther northwest you travel on Rt 28, the better it will be! Rt 7 still has good snow and Rt 9 is an absolute winter wonderland! CharlesTown has an inch. But it wont last long with that warm weather coming!

Get out and enjoy it! It's definitely sleddable along Rt 9!

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gotten very foggy in the last hour. Vis down to a quarter mile or less.

Still clear here with beautiful purples, blues, and oranges in the breaks between the clouds. The fog must be the warm air surging north?

Sitting at 31.

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