Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,614
    Total Members
    14,841
    Most Online
    SENCMike
    Newest Member
    SENCMike
    Joined

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...where did Sunday come from?

Hope that misses....I probably won't even have internet a lot of the time between now and then.

Sunday is a classic example of why some of those posts talking about punting the rest of February are so silly. Things can pop up on short notice....esp with the source region of the shortwave. Classic "Arctic screamer".

 

Anyways, not sold on that event yet, but it's now a threat to be tracked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Mmm, the heat is on this GFS run ...it's just south.   In fact, the temperature contrast across the boundary is something really to marvel.  The cut off is roughly NYC... Mid Jersey could be 70 F while FIT up there along Rt 2 is icing, on this run, at 200 hours.

Therein is the rub, "200 hours" .. but, there is enough mass in that warm sector over the eastern U.S. to actually be more in agreement with the Euro than not (much to the chagrin of the cold side focused).  It just so happens to be (for now) the boundary is aligned along the L.I. Sound, but this run is actually warmer overall/integral. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm, the heat is on this GFS run ...it's just south.   In fact, the temperature contrast across the boundary is something really to marvel.  The cut off is roughly NYC... Mid Jersey could be 70 F while FIT up there along Rt 2 is icing, on this run, at 200 hours.

Therein is the rub, "200 hours" .. but, there is enough mass in that warm sector over the eastern U.S. to actually be more in agreement with the Euro than not (much to the chagrin of the cold side focused).  It just so happens to be (for now) the boundary is aligned along the L.I. Sound. 

Yeah the overall synoptic layout on a larger scale is pretty much in agreement....it's just a question of where the boundary sets up most of the time...could be a matter of 300-400 miles at this time range. Our geography and topography usually wants to place it a bit to our south....but obviously larger scale factors can overwhelm that. I do have in the back of my mind how often the Euro has overplayed the SE ridge at this medium range lead time this winter...we've seen it come in muted on numerous occasions once we got inside of D6.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the overall synoptic layout on a larger scale is pretty much in agreement....it's just a question of where the boundary sets up most of the time...could be a matter of 300-400 miles at this time range. Our geography and topography usually wants to place it a bit to our south....but obviously larger scale factors can overwhelm that. I do have in the back of my mind how often the Euro has overplayed the SE ridge at this medium range lead time this winter...we've seen it come in muted on numerous occasions once we got inside of D6.

Right ...it's why privately I suspect a colder tapestry some how some way next week... Don't know about an ice storm (jesus...) but, I've made my case, I fell, cogently regarding mid/extended range warm spells in models on a few occasions over the last week.

Not saying it won't be 70+ ... just that you get a vote of no confidence in that from me for the time being.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Especially when the Euro op is much warmer than the EPS and even the op is plainly evident how it you can see it adjusting 300 sw with the backdoor setup. You can be sure 00Z will start the colder trend

I like how you is more concerned about muting the torch next week over the system on sunday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...