February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s a SWFE actually as depicted.  

 Sure looks like it, we have been waiting all winter for one out here.    I'll bite when we hold the trend for a few runs.  A less amped euro today would be a good sign 

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

His elevation is 1066. I believe MRG is close to 1500 ft.

Lol thanks for the insider info, I guessed

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm ... Not to be Debbie buuuut...  we should keep in mind that these needle thread deals can shift on a dime by small lat/lon variances and the gradients being pretty tight it can mean a huge sensible difference in terms of impact. 

Oh no doubt...it goes back to my "unmanned firehose" reference. The small shifts early on make a big difference whereas some type of blocking downstream would act to "force" the storm into a designated slot with narrower goalposts...we obviously don't have that downstream blocking (whether transient or not)

 

But regardless...I def think we want to see it go flatter right now. We know these can come back north inside of 60 hours pretty good. 

[scoob40]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol thanks for the insider info, I guessed

It's all God's country.

[#NoPoles]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good to see all the globals at 12z so far shifting for Wednesday. Almost the whole forum would do pretty well on those solutions maybe save the south coast. 

 

Hi

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

But regardless...I def think we want to see it go flatter right now. We know these can come back north inside of 60 hours pretty good. 

That's why I'm not worried about whiffing south even with a GGEM type solution.  It seems we've had a few events this winter that have trended southeast for a while in the mid-range but then tick back the other way a bit inside of 48-60 hours.

[CoastalWx]

Euro gives some front end snow, but still fairly amped. 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That's why I'm not worried about whiffing south even with a GGEM type solution.  It seems we've had a few events this winter that have trended southeast for a while in the mid-range but then tick back the other way a bit inside of 48-60 hours.

Risk is absolutely north with ++NAO. But at the same time nothing to amp this guy up. Will ride the boundary, wherever that sets up...SNE is where current guidance is zeroing in on.

[powderfreak]

12z EURO more amped than the 00z run again.

Much more than any other of the 12z models.  Not too far off the GEFS mean though I think.

 

[MJO812]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro gives some front end snow, but still fairly amped. 

Usually too amped at this range

[powderfreak]

lol that's a PF dream run right there.

No good being in the bullseye at day 4-5. 

[weathafella]

Goalposts still wide with euro most amped and not sure but maybe cmc most suppressed?

 

[weathafella]

Euro cooking up a ginxy Birthday special?

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Usually too amped at this range

GFS is to the SE and EURO is to the NW...

Take the average

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

12z EURO more amped than the 00z run again.

Much more than any other of the 12z models.  Not too far off the GEFS mean though I think.

 

I mean a low of that origin usually makes me a little nervous, despite any trends. The front end here was a bit better which is usually a good sign to get that thing across the coastal areas and not over The berks.

[Damage In Tolland]

This must be storm number 10 that the Euro overamps. This will end up over the Cape or Ack. Progressive flow 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This must be storm number 10 that the Euro overamps. This will end up over the Cape or Ack. Progressive flow 

Not sure yet. That’s a good spot for a storm to not be too progressive. But maybe it will.

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This must be storm number 10 that the Euro overamps. This will end up over the Cape or Ack. Progressive flow 

Disagree. WAR will do the UL ridge pumping...unfortunately...

[moneypitmike]

I have had less time to look at things since the new job.  But Every time I look at models and out the window, I’m seeing meh.  

 

Note.....this in response to the comments on my eeyore remarks.

[ORH_wxman]

I like seeing the more CAD sig on the isobars. Look at how cold the sfc is at 12z and 18z Wednesday. Prob won't track over ALB...hopefully the euro is doing its typical amped thing at D4-5. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Disagree. WAR will do the UL ridge pumping...unfortunately...

That hasn’t happened all winter. Puff puff pass 

[25thamendmentfan]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Has nothing to do with hope. The great Feb doesnt look so great anymore, thats the reality of it. We could sneak something mid month but if not its down to the last two weeks. Who knows what March brings but a sustained month it is usually not. Obv March 17 was pretty wintery but the numbers say thats an anomoly last 10-15yrs.  It is what it is, i call it like I see it. 

I agree with you. The famous February pattern change was aggressively promoted by some of the same people who feel every February will be February 2015, but many of the experts on here were trying to temper the zealotry. 

This winter hasn't been particularly fun. Although the January event was fun for 5 hours, we haven't had many events and we've gone days without any threats. I like a winter like 2008-2009 when the threats come fast and furiously even if there are no biggies.

But events that spare the population centers of all of New England yet give a few inches to rural hilltop communities don't excite me, nor do Windex events in the boondocks.

[Ginx snewx]

Poor MPM with a 20 spot plus on that Euro run 

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That hasn’t happened all winter. Puff puff pass 

It’s happening tomorrow. quit hitting the pipe.

[Ginx snewx]

46 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro cooking up a ginxy Birthday special?

We take

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

I agree with you. The famous February pattern change was aggressively promoted by some of the same people who feel every February will be February 2015, but many of the experts on here were trying to temper the zealotry. 

This winter hasn't been particularly fun. Although the January event was fun for 5 hours, we haven't had many events and we've gone days without any threats. I like a winter like 2008-2009 when the threats come fast and furiously even if there are no biggies.

But events that spare the population centers of all of New England yet give a few inches to rural hilltop communities don't excite me, nor do Windex events in the boondocks.

Pretty sure no-one in this subforum ever stated Feb 15 would be walking in the door,  sounds like hypebole

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s happening tomorrow. quit hitting the pipe.

I dunno pope-the thickness packing in eastern Canada typically exerts more influence than models credit at this time frame.

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like seeing the more CAD sig on the isobars. Look at how cold the sfc is at 12z and 18z Wednesday. Prob won't track over ALB...hopefully the euro is doing its typical amped thing at D4-5. 

Great analysis 

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I have had less time to look at things since the new job.  But Every time I look at models and out the window, I’m seeing meh.  

Note.....this in response to the comments on my eeyore remarks.

All guidance looks good in your area for Wednesday... of at least a plowable snow, if not double digit snow.

[weathafella]

MPM-what’s meh outside your window?