jbenedet Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That always confuses me?? If you get less snow than forecast...don't you bust low, cuz you got lower snow than forecast???? No??? I guess you can look at it both ways. But ya, I think most people are going to be surprised how little they get from this..if anything. I said the forecast will bust high. My interpretation is in terms of error with respect to the forecast. The forecast error was a result of being too high. Forecast total - actual. If the number is positive, the forecast busted high; if the number is negative the forecast busted low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 It's an annoying little phuck of a system. Hoping for an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 What did Euro have at 00z ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's an annoying little phuck of a system. Hoping for an inch or two. It def had potential for a nice stripe of 5-8" or something...we're prob gonna squander it. Hopefully we still set up a band that at least gives 2-4" for eastern regions...that's prob our hope right now. There's def convective garbage out to the east that is not helping us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What did Euro have at 00z ? Maybe a coating for your area...prob 1-3" for BOS-PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What did Euro have at 00z ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It def had potential for a nice stripe of 5-8" or something...we're prob gonna squander it. Hopefully we still set up a band that at least gives 2-4" for eastern regions...that's prob our hope right now. There's def convective garbage out to the east that is not helping us out. Yeah, didn't mean to vent...just an annoying system from a forecast standpoint too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What did Euro have at 00z ? Nothing here but maybe you dust the ground there, stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 H7 still is overhead, but the guidance isn't enthusiastic at all. Usually there are at least some signs of mid level magic. Other than wind vectors showing fronto, not much there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing here but maybe you dust the ground there, stay safe. Wonder if I get an apology? I'm hurty-hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, didn't mean to vent...just an annoying system from a forecast standpoint too. Fast flow, multiple waves embedded....doesn't look to change much in Feb either even though we shift to colder. Prob gonna be some crappy model behavior during storm threats in this regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They'll probably be a band somewhere, but it's a nowcast. I have minimal confidence in any banding now (outside of the Cape) - this looks to have little synoptic wave development, and instead looks more like a series of warm core meso lows traversing a frontal boundary... And the kicker is the forcing due to the UL vort is modeled across guidance to miss our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Days and days of snow. Glad I never bought into that idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Sun trying to pop out here with blue sky to the West, not a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Days and days of snow. Glad I never bought into that idea I didn’t see anyone posting anything about that for this anafront wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I should have flagged this earlier when I continued to notice the best UL dynamics west , but the surface low continuing well east. That of course makes sense if the UL's aren't driving its development (as much as mesoscale convective processes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 RGEM is back to garbage too...maybe an inch or so for BOS-PVD...2-4 for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 This one has been entertaining to watch unfold from on the outside looking in....more twists and turns than a Pats SB game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 This is turning into a nothing burger. Starting to doubt any accumulation here. Models get an F for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is turning into a nothing burger. Starting to doubt any accumulation here. Models get an F for this storm. Why we stuck to the GFS/Euro. They were never big on any accum W of I-95. Were pretty much a 2-4" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is turning into a nothing burger. Starting to doubt any accumulation here. Models get an F for this storm. Told you not to buy the RGEM yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Everybody had a drink Sunday at happy hour. Subsequent hangover is the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Told you not to buy the RGEM yesterday. Dude this is probably a bust but the storm didn't happen yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Dude this is probably a bust but the storm didn't happen yet RGEM from yesterday is not happening. That said, he could get 1-2 maybe a lucky inch more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Dude this is probably a bust but the storm didn't happen yet I think we can reasonably safely say the 18z RGEM from yesterday isn't going to verify anywhere close to correctly. But I def wouldn't sleep quite yet on any weenie bands...esp down in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: This one has been entertaining to watch unfold from on the outside looking in....more twists and turns than a Pats SB game. This, I checked out on Saturday, They can blame Tmeh for the fail...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: James ... you're like a child with this stuff. Your "analytic gate" is insufficient to handle the tide of your imagination Maybe he isn't as perfect as you. Maybe it brightens his day to post on here. Your snide and personal attack on a charming and innocent person says more about you than about any deficiencies he may or may not have. Not everyone has blonde hair and blue eyes, nor is everyone a weather expert. But one thing's for certain, James never attacks anyone nor does he belittle anyone and just like trump said to rand Paul, "believe me there's plenty of material." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I cant get back the time spent tracking this garbage. lol. Not sure why you bothered. The writing has been on the wall for a few days that this thing was not going to produce, especially for your area. I may be chasing a flake or 2 overnight though. If I capture one, I will keep it in the freezer forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Maybe he isn't as perfect as you. Maybe it brightens his day to post on here. Your snide and personal attack on a charming and innocent person says more about you than about any deficiencies he may or may not have. Not everyone has blonde hair and blue eyes, nor is everyone a weather expert. But one thing's for certain, James never attacks anyone nor does he belittle anyone and just like trump said to rand Paul, "believe me there's plenty of material." Yeah all that and... no one attacked anyone. I compared him to charming innocent entity, 'a child' and you turned it into something else entirely. I know James and we've shared IM's ... I'm sure he's fine with it. Ease off the social media peddle will yah. As far as the quote you took out of context at the end there, that is still true whether you believe it or not. There is evidence to support that for many users in here, the journey is not about the storm, but the involvement with the models. merely saying that should not evoke vitriol ... unless it is from the self-conscious. Also, hint hint: I never said I was above any of it.. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: lol. Not sure why you bothered. The writing has been on the wall for a few days that this thing was not going to produce, especially for your area. I may be chasing a flake or 2 overnight though. If I capture one, I will keep it in the freezer forever. I never expected any accums but I still tracked it. It’s a non productive way to utilize time. Thats my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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