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January 29-30th Rain/Flurries coastal and IVT


WxUSAF

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Until the euro or gfs have something meaningful....this excersise is a complete waste of time. The gfs run was a disaster

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lol

Not a good idea to expect the 18z GFS to have a meaningful(notable) change for the better(or worse). It's pretty much going to mirror the 12z run, sometimes a tad better, sometimes worse. In this case, a bit worse. Noise basically. Same with the 0z and 6z runs. The "off" runs rarely lead the way with any meaningful changes imo. Tune back in for the 0z run.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol

Not a good idea to expect the 18z GFS to have a meaningful(notable) change for the better(or worse). It's pretty much going to mirror the 12z run, sometimes a tad better, sometimes worse. In this case, a bit worse. Noise basically. Same with the 0z and 6z runs. The "off" runs rarely lead the way with any meaningful changes imo. Tune back in for the 0z run.

Yeah, not disaster yet. 1 model run doesn't cause a trend, especially the happy hour GFS. 

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol

Not a good idea to expect the 18z GFS to have a meaningful(notable) change for the better(or worse). It's pretty much going to mirror the 12z run, sometimes a tad better, sometimes worse. In this case, a bit worse. Noise basically. Same with the 0z and 6z runs. The "off" runs rarely lead the way with any meaningful changes imo. Tune back in for the 0z run.

Agreed. Never trust happy hour GFS. It’s likely 3 beers deep with wing sauce all over its face.  I’ll put money down on 0z. 

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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Agreed. Never trust happy hour GFS. It’s likely 3 beers deep with wing sauce all over its face.  I’ll put money down on 0z. 

This makes no sense.  It has been talked about time and time again.  The 6Z/18Z are just as important as the 0Z/12Z.  This has been confirmed by the Reg Tags in the past.  Just because it is not what you see... you should not disregard it.

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18 minutes ago, Interstate said:

This makes no sense.  It has been talked about time and time again.  The 6Z/18Z are just as important as the 0Z/12Z.  This has been confirmed by the Reg Tags in the past.  Just because it is not what you see... you should not disregard it.

yep. Seen many times the 18z GFS take away our 12z snowstorms

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8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It's rain, while surface temps are 33. Not sure why it doesn't show snow. Euro/GFS 850s were cold too, and their surface temps were much toastier than what the ICON shows

I wish the icon had soundings. Thicknesses show 850s cold enough. Would think it would be paste unless 925s are warm or something like that. I doubt it though. That looked like a paste setup if it came down hard enough. 

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50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I wish the icon had soundings. Thicknesses show 850s cold enough. Would think it would be paste unless 925s are warm or something like that. I doubt it though. That looked like a paste setup if it came down hard enough. 

The precip on the icon is PVA and jet dynamics driven. It's pretty far removed from the actual coastal. It's a tricky setup. The gfs instead develops a front runner wave that takes all the energy off and thus has a weaker vort max and nothing behind. But that actual coastal off the Carolinas is way too progressive. The U.K. and icon get us with an enhanced wave from the upper level energy trailing. 

For those worried about the nam it develops a healthy IVT but north and I wouldn't worry much everything else is south with that. Still in the game for a fluke from that if nothing else but can't pin a IVT down until almost nowcast time. 

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27 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

So we dont have the NAM or the GFS on this run. Concerning.

Nam has a healthy IVT only north of us. But all other guidance is south. If nam corrects south it wouldn't be too bad. Still could fluke our way to some snow just from the upper level energy and IVT. Lots of time left with a tricky setup. 

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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, the 6z NAM has a lot more moisture...sadly it's mostly rain with the coastal

Its getting a little late in the game for the coastal. Surface temps suck for that timeframe. It would take some good lift with dynamical cooling to get it to snow, and right now where it does precipitate, mostly east of I-95, rates don't look too impressive.

As for the IVT deal, we see the models place that feature in our area quite often a few days out, but it almost inevitably ends up to our north around LI or SNE. I am sure there will be a coating to an inch somewhere in our region, but exactly where and by what mechanism, who knows, lol.

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Both the UK and JMA have favorable tracks for the coastal still. Temps are iffy. 850's seem fine while the surface is probably mid 30's. Would think if this track would verify, areas north and west with some elevation could get some small accumulations. Remember the ICON and Euro both get precip into the corridor from the coastal as well.  

JMA - http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=jma&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=072&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

UK - http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=072&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

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