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January 29-30th Rain/Flurries coastal and IVT


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, cae said:

That's the 12z GGEM.  (That site is confusing.)

I mention this because the extended 18z RGEM gives me a little more snow.  :snowing:

 

Ah, you're right. Even though the 18z run shows on the dropdown, the panels flip to 12z after 48 hours. Yes, confusing. Still looks good so I'm leaving my pic up. lol

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ah, you're right. Even though the 18z run shows on the dropdown, the panels flip to 12z after 48 hours. Yes, confusing. Still looks good so I'm leaving my pic up. lol

watch the Jan 29-30 storm beat the Feb 2 storm lol

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

watch the Jan 29-30 storm beat the Feb 2 storm lol

I'd give equal odds and I'm not even joking. Ivt is juicing up at short leads. Can't not like that. The thing that sucks is events like this divide our sub. There won't be some pretty evenly distributed qpf shield. Some folks will prob get banded and others will get mad at their light non-accum snow. 

If both perform then it becomes more apparent that we are clear of the black cloud of bad luck that has gripped us all season so far. It's not like this winter has been void of opportunities like last winter. We just can't catch a damn break in the corridor. Time for that S to change man. I'm over it 

 

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52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs herd mentality in full swing but it should be at short leads. Ivt feature has been nearly non existent on the gefs until 18z. Lookin sweet. A decent number of 2-4" solutions in the mix but not widespread 2-4. Bullseye style with no one area favored. Shotgun style. 

QqgqtKv.jpg

plenty of shutout panels too...but euro seems to have "locked in on this event" to at least see an inch. Hopefully this thing can maintain or increase and be our event of the year lol

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

plenty of shutout panels too...but euro seems to have "locked in on this event" to at least see an inch. Hopefully this thing can maintain or increase and be our event of the year lol

Ensembles are low on the list for useful guidance at short range with a small event but there's really not many shutout panels. Like 3. Timing differences dont capture the event on the panel i posted. I was mostly pointing out that this event is gaining traction for our area right now. The spread is narrowing and for whatever reason the MA seem to be ground zero. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Honestly, I think it’s more of a ULL then a IVT now. Looked that way earlier but I think it’s more upper level energy driving this. If I must quibble.

Yea, I agree. Still has the ivt look to the isobars but it's looking more like an upper level piece of energy developing on its own. Should be a period of mod or even heavy rates for some folks. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Honestly, I think it’s more of a ULL then a IVT now. Looked that way earlier but I think it’s more upper level energy driving this. If I must quibble.

It does seem mostly driven by the h5 low pass but i thought there is also a weak IVT helping enhance.   At least I think I see it here. 

IMG_3758.thumb.PNG.76d5d820f3135d413f9714003083c9d0.PNG

frankly if I get 3" I don't care if it's because angels had to take a piss. 

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3k looks fun too. Brings a pretty good line of convective snows through. Doesn't last long but could be fun while it passes. 
Hey, long time lurker. What's the general timing of these snow "bursts" if they were to actually happen --- middle of the night, or more like Tuesday morning, or still too early to tell?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

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I am not seeing an IVT. There is a definitive vort that is passing under us. The GFS saw it a week ago most of the models have been getting more amped with each model run. Obviously I seem to be in a good spot this time. Elevation/lift helps in these types of events. But I think this ends up being a decent event for most of the subforum. If we werent dealing with spring temps before I think we all score.

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44 minutes ago, 66degreesnorth said:

Hey, long time lurker. What's the general timing of these snow "bursts" if they were to actually happen --- middle of the night, or more like Tuesday morning, or still too early to tell?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

Timing seems to be late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. That could change. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Like the nams, the gfs is digging the shortwave a little more through h48. Like seeing these trends close in like this. 

Beginning to believe this is close to a high probability 1-2" event. Maybe 3 in a few spots. I have been pretty skeptical admittedly. Given the lights out, shades down mode we were a week or so ago until sometime in early Feb, any snow this week in our region is a major win.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs looked better at h5 but came in with lower precip. I'm surprised but still a direct hit. Running out of time for a shift to miss completely. Interesting event. 

Ehh these things are so finicky with precip and the globals will struggle to see the details. But we know if we get the right vort pass we're in the game for a surprise. Nothing huge but some isolated 2-3" numbers aren't out. I'm happy that most guidance is converging on the right track. Run to run jumps in qpf on the gfs aren't going to concern me much. Could be just noise given the nature of these type events. 

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Beginning to believe this is close to a high probability 1-2" event. Maybe 3 in a few spots. I have been pretty skeptical admittedly. Given the lights out, shades down mode we were a week or so ago until sometime in early Feb, any snow this week in our region is a major win.

Looks much more vigorous now than compared to when it first showed up. 3" seems like the top end potential. Getting 2" in the majority of the sub would be reason to party. 

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Looks much more vigorous now than compared to when it first showed up. 3" seems like the top end potential. Getting 2" in the majority of the sub would be reason to party. 
Better roi on this storm too compared to the last one that caused my meltdown

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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